clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty insane national accumulation map. 6" plus from NE Texas to Maine. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'll take what the para is showing to get me over my seasonal average by a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Didn't that trend north from the prior run? 6Z 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Didn't that trend north from the prior run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: 2.6” at DCA before the changeover to ZR on 2/20/19 and 2.8” at DCA before the changeover on 2/15/16. Those performed more or less as expected and are just within the past 5 years. I mean yeah, it can happen for sure. But I don't think many would be happy here with 2" on grass followed by rain. They'd call it a fail, especially given the globals right now. Like this storm could totally give us an inch or two before it rains, but I'd hardly call that a win or a high-impact event. For the record I hope I'm wrong I would kill for a solid thump. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It is positive to see the globals still trending better. One last point on the NAM. The reason it goes berserk with the h7 warm layer is actually something it’s doing synoptically that makes it a huge outlier. @CAPE made a great post early this morning about how the trough is strung out and the guidance focusing more on the lead wave is helping to keep the system under us. The NAM is the holy guidance not doing that. It has a more amplified but also consolidated trough and this allows it to amplify to our west. If that’s wrong the h7 warm layer will be overdone. I have no idea if it’s wrong. Preponderance of evidence would say it’s overdoing it. I’m going to go with that. But I sure will feel more comfortable when it drops that idea and gets on board with other guidance. That is all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Someone needs to post the para 850 and 700mb fronto panels STAT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Didn't that trend north from the prior run? Just looking at the WB clownmap, I think technically yes? But it's a better run overall for just about everyone and even for someone like me, I get more digital snow despite not being in the jack zone Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Of course, that morning beat down is flirting w sleet in dc, but no surprise there. Unavoidable given the setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 So… PARA or bust? LOL… I definitely would not be mad at that solution, even though we eventually change over. Looks like a ton of snow to sleet to ZR here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well at the very least the gfs brothers finally appear to have given up on the idea of a low running the west side of the apps. Finally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’ll take ice over cold rain. It was pretty cool to experience but having power likely made it fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para would be the fairly common snow its eyeballs out as the sleet line is speed marching north then an earlier expected flip to sleet followed by cars being stripped to bare metal before zr in the dc area. Sounds good. I'll stick with that for now 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para would be the fairly common snow its eyeballs out as the sleet line is speed marching north then an earlier expected flip to sleet followed by cars being stripped to bare metal before zr in the dc area. Sounds good. I'll stick with that for nowI like bad wintet weather. This sounds like a severe storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I mean yeah, it can happen for sure. But I don't think many would be happy here with 2" on grass followed by rain. They'd call it a fail, especially given the globals right now. Like this storm could totally give us an inch or two before it rains, but I'd hardly call that a win or a high-impact event. For the record I hope I'm wrong I would kill for a solid thump. Problem is digital snow maps. I’m guilty too but trying to get better. I think realistically us closer in right now is 1-3/2-4” to sleet then slop. As I have seen and you stated, warm layers race quicker than progged. The only thing, which all guidance agrees on, is the surface being mid 20s right now. If we see it creep up in the next few days (which past storms have to some degree) then we will know where this is headed but I’m optimistic now on a dynamic even that starts as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 para showing broad 2"/hr rates in the thump 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 CMC is a solid thump to ice for the NW burbs. Solid thump to ice to rain for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, EHoffman said: That's all I'm saying though, is that historically these types of storms fail 99% of the time in DC even if we're getting slammed a few days in advance on "all the models." Of course it's not IMPOSSIBLE we bank significantly on this, but I find it to be a major uphill battle. Ehhh no power outages and slippery pavement that melted by the next morning. Pretty? Sure. High impact? In CVA and Southern VA, absolutely. Here, not so much. I honestly think the models are too cold and we're always warmer than progged down here. All I know is, (as a native washingtonian) you don't have to wait 50 years for mega storms. "High impact" doesn't just mean outages. It could be travel issues. Saturday an suv skidded UNDER a cement truck in front of a gas station. The truck flipped on its side, the suv went sailing two blocks and collided with another building. Was posted up i news coverage. SE DC. I couldn't get past my steps or landing because of ice. My neighborhood was a frigging skating rink...and its all hills so not fun. Ice isn't good for anything except pictures. I get it, marginal stuff is tough here because we've got a lot going on climate wise. The ocean, the mountains, hot air off the gulf. The latitude. So, duh. I just get tired of the inaccurate narrative about DC, as if this is an eternal tropic zone that never sees snow. I get people are frustrated looking at a zillion color maps, but all anyone has to do is look up all the mega storms of the last 50 years. There's been quite a few, not counting minor events. And this 'heat island' bit could apply to any city at this latitiude. If you're talking about downtown with the heaviest traffic and concrete, ok. That's just the central core. I sometimes wonder if people ever venture out of their neighborhoods. Just sayin'. Maybe its time to just look out the window and toss all the models, I dunno. And now, back to the mood swings over maps... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Man, I come in see the NAM and it;s mass suicides up in here. YES, NAM has been great and sniffing out trends. But EVERY SINGLE TIME it did, the other models began to trend toward it. In all cases. This time, nothing is even close to it. Does that mean it's wrong? No, but let's stop acting like this is the same situation. It's not. Nobody is trending toward the NAM as with all the other storms. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 700 MB PARA starting 7am; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Para would be the fairly common snow its eyeballs out as the sleet line is speed marching north then an earlier expected flip to sleet followed by cars being stripped to bare metal before zr in the dc area. Sounds good. I'll stick with that for now I like bad wintet weather. This sounds like a severe storm We can almost write off an inconsequential 33+ degree rain event. That was locked and loaded 3 days ago (by mid range standards). Keep watching heights to the north and surface hp pressing south (even if 5 miles)and pray they dont start folding. Seem to both still be in beefing up stage. Make no mistake tho, there will almost surely be a stall and retreat at some point. We're in night drop deposit of wiggle room stage. Once the bank opens and starts auditing the skrizzle in the bag, we better hope we counted right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Man, the latest GFS-v16 is a great storm for us a solid thump followed by sleet and then ice but never goes above freezing before the precip moves out then an artic blast a day later to keep the snow around on the ground instead of melting. I would take that in a heartbeat doubt it happens though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’m buying what the Para is selling, but I’m sure someone can tell me reasons not to shop at the store. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We can almost write off an inconsequential 33+ degree rain event. That was locked and loaded 3 days ago (by mid range standards). Keep watching heights to the north and surface hp pressing south (even if 5 miles)and pray they dont start folding. Seem to both still be in beefing up stage. Make no mistake tho, there will almost surely be a stall and retreat at some point. We're in night drop deposit of wiggle room stage. Once the bank opens and starts auditing the skrizzle in the bag, we better hope we counted right. I think I agree with this post but can you maybe write it in English? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 50 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before. Who ordered the DC version of Baltimorewx? Speak up 1 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: I think I agree with this post but can you maybe write it in English? Weenie wordmsmiths avoid making sense as much as possible. Makes it easier to claim victory no matter the outcome 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB PARA surface temps peak around 6pm TH; below freezing all day NW. at freezing DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Who ordered the DC version of Baltimorewx? Speak up Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Who ordered the DC version of Baltimorewx? Speak up Hey thats not nice. I might be a deb but Im more realistic than that dude....This is looking solid for a cold thump so long as there isnt some crazy NW trend...26-28 degrees with snow falling thursday morning sign me up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Weenie wordmsmiths avoid making sense as much as possible. Makes it easier to claim victory no matter the outcome You secretly work for CWG don’t you... j/k - we love CWG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Hey thats not nice. I might be a deb but Im more realistic than that dude....This is looking solid for a cold thump so long as there isnt some crazy NW trend...26-28 degrees with snow falling thursday morning sign me up I feel personally attacked, how is stating DC climo being an issue not realistic?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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