Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:18 AM, stormtracker said: If you pay for pivotal plus does it fill in the precip better? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:19 AM, Ji said: On 2/15/2021 at 6:18 AM, stormtracker said: One thing for sure, the Low ain't going due north up into W. PA. Down over central SC Expand But same results smh Expand 3 days ago this was close to a rainstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Do we go above freezing at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:21 AM, Deck Pic said: Euro is pretty sick.... Expand Listening to Ji I thought it was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:22 AM, ravensrule said: Listening to Ji I thought it was a disaster. Expand There's your issue right there 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:23 AM, stormtracker said: There's your issue right thereIm just going by randy pbp. Lack of excitement etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10:1, kuchera is less I guess because of temps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:22 AM, Ji said: Do we go above freezing at all? Expand No... DCA does not go above 32 till Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Better map Snow comes in like a wall. Good stuff kuchera for comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Euro does drop 0.15 to 0.25" of ice across the region after the snow... down towards CHO and just SW of EZF its lights out ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:24 AM, Ji said: On 2/15/2021 at 6:23 AM, stormtracker said: There's your issue right there Expand Im just going by randy pbp. Lack of excitement etc Expand Yeah, I just spit straight facts and data. Not all of us are children who need things to be spiced up. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The precipitation field looks way off as well as its in sc a lot less then when it was going to be in wv? Im confused as all get out I know these are just models and are used for guidance but this is way off imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM sucks and is the only model that looks like that so far..low still going west. No snow, just sleet and zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:22 AM, yoda said: Mod snow DCA to EZF at 81 on 06z RGEM with temp 24/26 at DCA at hours 81/84 with very strong CAD Expand You do the best pbp...very nice trends...almost too nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:22 AM, yoda said: Mod snow DCA to EZF at 81 on 06z RGEM with temp 24/26 at DCA at hours 81/84 with very strong CAD 0.4 to 0.5 QPF through 84 at DCA (using 12 hour accumulated QPF map) 3 to 6 inches of snow have fallen in most parts of N VA into DC at 84... DCA to EZF to CHO... Warrenton and Luray included... 2 to 3 inches in Loudoun/Clarke/Frederick counties in NW VA Expand On 2/15/2021 at 9:31 AM, BristowWx said: You do the best pbp...very nice trends...almost too nice. Expand Sorry I made a big mistake... I thought PW updated to 06z RGEM automatically... but you have to do it manually... so this is all 00z stuff I'll do 06z for real in a minute... sorry guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 06z RGEM is a nice snow to major sleet/ice storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looping what the GFS does with today's system for Wednesday is super fascinating. That system wants to linger for as long as it can, and the trend isn't stopping. That's for sure contributing to the more suppressed look ahead of the Thursday system. Heights a fair bit lower ahead compared to 0z, which were lower than 18z, etc. At this point with our previous systems that got suppressed from flush hits (like Jan 28), this trend was screwing us over, but now it wants to get us into a somewhat decent look lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 00z EPS snow mean def improved... moved SE good 75 miles with both 2 inch and 6 inch lines DCA was 1.6 at 18z... 3.0 at 00z Compared 00z 108 to 18z 114 ETA: About 35/36 out of the 50 individual members have DCA at 2"+ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Let me know when to start worrying about suppression. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 9:53 AM, psuhoffman said: Let me know when to start worrying about suppression. Lol Expand Man I was just thinking that. What if this thing...ehhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6z GFS drops 0.75"+ QPF for most of the area before any midlevel gets above freezing (at DCA/I-95 and points SE that is). 1" QPF jackpots in there too, and I'll leave it at that. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 6Z Para DC bullseye! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 10:07 AM, Weather Will said: WB 6Z Para DC bullseye! Expand I am the only one who is nervous about these positive developments...me and psu of course. I am certain he was only half kidding with his post above. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 6:31 AM, yoda said: Euro does drop 0.15 to 0.25" of ice across the region after the snow... down towards CHO and just SW of EZF its lights out ice Expand Ah just what I wanted was a half-inch of ice... or more. I guess this is revenge for dodging any impact from the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 6Z GEFS...loving the signal of lows to our south.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WB 6Z GEFS 12 inch probabilities for late week for first time 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 interesting... morning winter map update from LWX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I know everyone is waiting for Lucy or Dr No to show up but I believe this is the first time this winter we are trending in the right direction inside 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There has been more of an emphasis on the lead energy out in front of the main trough on the Euro and Para, which gets the coastal going sooner and further south. The last couple runs of the GFS/GEFS took a pretty big step towards that idea. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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