Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, LP08 said: I suppose the one thing that's consistent so far on guidance is the surface is frigid. Don't need rates to overcome 33-35 at the surface. I would take a 6hr dynamic system of all types of precip at 28-30 degrees. 1-5" of snow/sleet would be fun. Yep, comes in at a good time too. Early morning. Wake up drink some coffee and watch the radar light up with some fronto banding. Nothing better. Let’s gooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 27 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: DC at 84 hours...2-4" has fallen by this point. Good snow sounding there for at least a few more hours even though its becoming isothermal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cmc has some very heavy banding aimed right at DC then too. It’s very questionable if it’s snow/sleet. Flips back and forth for a few hours in the precip type plots. Nothing else updated yet. 55 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yea on stormvista plots I have no clue what ptype either. 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s snow or sleet. There is a 6 hour period with extremely heavy precip from DC to the PA line and it keeps flipping back and forth and has areas of snow south of areas of sleet. Indicative of a small warm layer that might be overcome by rates. But that 6 hour period is the difference between a minor v major event wrt snow accumulations. It would be high impact either way with ice. PW has the soundings for CMC... but they don't seem to line up with what the precip type/rate map shows. For example... DCA is 33 and rain on the sounding at 90 that I pull up... but on the precip type/rate it says its supposed to be heavy sleet with the green (rain) close to 100 miles SE of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'll take what the 00z UKMET is showing tonight... DCA does not get above 32 at all during the Thursday event High reaches 34/35 on Friday... stay in the 20s on Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 00z UKMET also has some decent h7 frontogensis in the region at hour 84 and 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Def major ice in here with the snow... but this is what PW shows for the 00z UKIE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Wow... surprising from LWX winter page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Def major ice in here with the snow... but this is what PW shows for the 00z UKIEWay less than 12z. What a hobby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Wow... surprising from LWX winter page Indeed. Don't think we've seen that level of concern 5 days out with any of the systems thus far this year. Have we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 End of month....March look fun 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Worst pbp ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Snow at 84 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Sleet at 90 hr. CAD down to the VA/NC border. Nice front end thump for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 One thing for sure, the Low ain't going due north up into W. PA. Down over central SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Sleet at 90 hr. CAD down to the VA/NC border. Nice front end thump for mostDang. Low is tracking in sc too instead of wv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 One thing for sure, the Low ain't going due north up into W. PA. Down over central SCBut same results smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 If you pay for pivotal plus does it fill in the precip better? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: One thing for sure, the Low ain't going due north up into W. PA. Down over central SC But same results smh 3 days ago this was close to a rainstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Euro is pretty sick.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Do we go above freezing at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Euro is pretty sick.... Listening to Ji I thought it was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, ravensrule said: Listening to Ji I thought it was a disaster. There's your issue right there 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There's your issue right thereIm just going by randy pbp. Lack of excitement etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Do we go above freezing at all? Spitballing, DC would flip at like hour 88 or so and then a bit later for you. It's quite a bit of snow before the flip 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10:1, kuchera is less I guess because of temps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Do we go above freezing at all? No... DCA does not go above 32 till Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Better map Snow comes in like a wall. Good stuff kuchera for comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Through 90, cause that seems like the flip time (probably a tad earlier S&E). 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Euro does drop 0.15 to 0.25" of ice across the region after the snow... down towards CHO and just SW of EZF its lights out ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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