Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 RGEM has snow into my area at 6z Thursday. Seems to be a little faster than the other models?Beatdown incoming 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Beatdown incoming hopefully for all of us. Just give me one panel with that dark blue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Quite the nasty ZR stomr at 96...but might be mitigated by heavy rates? Anyway, GFS may even be too warm if we are using @high risk rule I don't think it would be mitigated by rates for at least the first 6-12 hours of the storm. It's a little chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: What does it have for temps around that time at least compared to 12Z? Almost exactly the same to a degree. 26 12z and 25 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I don't think it would be mitigated by rates for at least the first 6-12 hours of the storm. It's a little chilly. I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion. Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy. I dunno. We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I don't think it would be mitigated by rates for at least the first 6-12 hours of the storm. It's a little chilly. And that's the "warm bias " op gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I know we brought up ICON but this is a snow/ice disaster. that's all frozen anywhere where temps are 32 or lower here. historically bad ice storm for VA/NC/SC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Almost exactly the same to a degree. 26 12z and 25 18z That's about a 1 degree difference right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Para GFS is a bit more of a thump for the general area. 850s holding on stronger than it's op brother FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Quite the nasty ZR stomr at 96...but might be mitigated by heavy rates? Anyway, GFS may even be too warm if we are using @high risk rule Verbatim its pure rain pretty much everywhere east of the mountains by hour 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion. Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy. I dunno. We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure. Yeah, not sure what the precise interplay is between temperatures and rates for ideal accretion, when below freezing. I'm sure the thermodynamics is a bit complicated when we start talking about those details. Of course, if it were 15 degrees and pouring rain, that would presumably be different than, say, 31 and doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Para GFS showing off it's new and improved CAD skills. vs. the old GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, not sure what the precise interplay is between temperatures and rates for ideal accretion, when below freezing. I'm sure the thermodynamics is a bit complicated when we start talking about those details. Of course, if it were 15 degrees and pouring rain, that would presumably be different than, say, 31 and doing the same. Absolutely... heavy zr at 15 would be far more efficient at accretion than heavy zr at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 hopefully for all of us. Just give me one panel with that dark blue. In 21-23 degree...that would be Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know we brought up ICON but this is a snow/ice disaster. that's all frozen anywhere where temps are 32 or lower here. historically bad ice storm for VA/NC/SC Has anyone been keeping tabs on how it ended up doing with the last few storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's about a 1 degree difference right? yes. Degree is singular. DegreeS is plural. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Verbatim its pure rain pretty much everywhere east of the mountains by hour 100. I know. We were talking 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Has anyone been keeping tabs on how it ended up doing with the last few storms? Did pretty well with the ice storm. Showed about .3-.4 qpf consistently and handled the shortwave pretty well I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So did it hold serve, improve a bit, or regress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 yo Para 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: yo Para WERE!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know we brought up ICON but this is a snow/ice disaster. that's all frozen anywhere where temps are 32 or lower here. historically bad ice storm for VA/NC/SC Yeah, temperatures stay below 30 the full duration of the storm with a ton of precip. Would be a doozy if accurate. Obviously a huge if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GEFS got colder/snowier. 18z 12z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Funny thing is my forecasts are saying 41 for friday morning showers. So not sure if all the models are saying below freezing and snow and ice why the forecast is that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillbilly Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ji said: Beatdown incoming Yup, that's what it's about. A beat down on a model run. Who cares about the actual snow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ForestHillbilly said: Yup, that's what it's about. A beat down on a model run. Who cares about the actual snow. Lol if it doesn’t matter why even look? You could just wait and be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ForestHillbilly said: Yup, that's what it's about. A beat down on a model run. Who cares about the actual snow. What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS Para always been the king in the shadows. It patiently waits to take its throne. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yup, that's what it's about. A beat down on a model run. Who cares about the actual snow. This is a medium/long range thread. The enjoyment of the snow will be found in the obs thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? Hey i posted 3 hour frames and people got there nuts tied around there necks about it lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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