Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Love the euro/ukie runs. I mean yea, who doesnt want a clean coastal but only a fool would be picky at this point. Well, we're all fools anyway but even foolish fools shouldnt be too fooly now. Classic thump/mix/semi-moist dryslot (attn RR) is setting up inside of 5 days. The setup in front of the storm is really on 2-3 days out. I dont think the trend colder/wintrier is done yet. We'll prob lose some ground in the short range but hard to be mad right now. One thing I say often is when midlevel cold is kinda wimpy with deep southerly flow, sleet will almost always take over sooner than modeled in nova/dc/md burbs. And that's fine with me. Anything but a gullywasher. I need one of these deals to work out to justify my return this year. The struggle is real. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, Ji said: 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Warmest and closest the sleet gets to 95 Has the low close to where ukmet has it. Do we need to worry about suppression lol I hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That sucks on the snow. I thought it would show more. Is that a stepback from 00z? Just noise, precip was slightly lighter on N edge but the bottom line is colder. More widespread snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: We’ve been duped with this before but maybe this one works out 65% chance we're headed for Heartbreak Hotel. That's why I want suppressed because the models will correct a little bit 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: SOLD 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Love the euro/ukie runs. I mean yea, who doesnt want a clean coastal but only a fool would be picky at this point. Well, we're all fools anyway but even foolish fools should be too fooly now. Classic thump/mix/semi-moist dryslot (attn RR) is setting up inside of 5 days. The setup in front of the storm is really on 2-3 days out. I dont think the trend colder/wintrier is done yet. We'll prob lose some ground in the short range but hard to be mad right now. One thing I say often is when midlevel cold is kinda wimpy with deep southerly flow, sleet will almost always take over sooner than modeled in nova/dc/md burbs. And that's fine with me. Anything but a gullywasher. I need one of these deals to work out to justify my return this year. The struggle is real. There's an outside shot at mostly snow if this keeps moving SE. At some point tho, it's gonna stop and hopefully just hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There's an outside shot at mostly snow if this keeps moving SE. At some point tho, it's gonna stop and hopefully just hold. There is. On the euro, that little upper level eyeball due north of us in Canada is beating down the ridge and creating just enough confluence to give us an outside chance. It's not the only thing helping obviously but it's an important one. If that keeps ticking stronger and souther run over run, I'll allow myself to acknowledge a chance at a real snowfall this time. I'm jaded af tho. Heck, we all are. But this is only 72hrs out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro d10 looks not so nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is false. It's all frozen not just N and W. It's frozen well S and E of 95 Euro needs a win... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 There is. On the euro, that little upper level eyeball due north of us in Canada is beating down the ridge and creating just enough confluence to give us an outside chance. It's not the only thing helping obviously but it's an important one. If that keeps ticking stronger and souther run over run, I'll allow myself to acknowledge a chance at a real snowfall this time. I'm jaded af tho. Heck, we all are. But this is only 72hrs out....That did trend west quiet a bit from same time yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I should have known when they were showing a tanking -NAO after we already had the coming-out-of-NAO storm. It almost never works out. The NAO always goes neutral or positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 There is. On the euro, that little upper level eyeball due north of us in Canada is beating down the ridge and creating just enough confluence to give us an outside chance. It's not the only thing helping obviously but it's an important one. If that keeps ticking stronger and souther run over run, I'll allow myself to acknowledge a chance at a real snowfall this time. I'm jaded af tho. Heck, we all are. But this is only 72hrs out....Bob 12z yesterday that low was near sw pa....now its well under us in sc. Eps had 2 distinct clusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 33 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Then a couple inches monday morning to freshen it up. That’s the sneaky wave I keep saying don’t sleep on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro d10 looks not so nina Scand ridge is blocking up the n atl flow. I've seen far worse op runs recently. I'm like 100% done caring about d7+ on any models. Good or bad it doesnt matter. Good looks turn into doo doo and doo doo looks turn into good. But by the time the mid range hits, it looks nothing like either. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s the sneaky wave I keep saying don’t sleep on. Looks like a weak NS wave on the means. Maybe a couple inches for NE? I suppose it could trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him. Muahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Can we agree we all have access to NAM panels? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18Z HRRR is pretty icy Tuesday. Leesburg and west never goes above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Hr 18 Please stop cluttering the thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Awilson said: Muahahaha Maybe try explaining exactly what you are trying to illustrate when you post these panels. They seem totally random and are useless without any context. I mean, most of what you are posting seems pretty useless regardless. Its like.. yaaaay look I got Pivotal weather! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Can we agree we all have access to NAM panels?Its awful. Where's the mods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ok ok. Geeze some people like it some don’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Awilson said: Ok ok. Geeze some people like it some don’t I can assure you no one likes it. 13 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ok next topic got it. Got it. Wont post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 EPS further souther and easter. Not a terrible look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Awilson said: Ok ok. Geeze some people like it some don’t Maybe just post panels that you think are noteworthy or that people might want to discuss. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What the fresh hell 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: EPS further souther and easter. Not a terrible look. NW folks look to be in pretty decent shape for significant frozen. Not sure how acceptable an outcome is in the cards for I-95 and esp east. Probably about as good as it gets right now given the synoptics and the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: NW folks look to be in pretty decent shape for significant frozen. Not sure how acceptable an outcome is in the cards for I-95 and esp east. Probably about as good as it gets right now given the synoptics and the time frame. For sure. Hopefully the NW crew really cashes in for once. In all seriousness, trends are good for at least some frozen for all before whatever mess follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What the fresh hell I don’t know what kinda ship you’re runnin here ... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: Maybe just post panels that you think are noteworthy or that people might want to discuss. on top of that....he is posting rain panels 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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