yoda Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Famous last words of a weather weenie... EPS should be interesting to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Were actually trending better from a disaster. This is new 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 All models give us a major winter storm and all have trended better since psu meltdown 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 had to share cause I thought it was funny... probably a legit ice storm in the blue ridge but in most places where people actually live a lot of this is during daylight and temps are only low 30s, so color me skeptical it would accrete that bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Were actually trending better from a disaster. This is new So CMC/PARA GFS/UKIE/EURO were all nice to us on their 00z runs for Thurs... hmm... Nah... we know how this ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 With 850s getting that toasty no shot this ever is snow for long but good trend I suppose. Little more CAD and this is a historic ice storm.I'll take it for as long as euro allows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 had to share cause I thought it was funny... probably a legit ice storm in the blue ridge but in most places where people actually live a lot of this is during daylight and temps are only low 30s, so color me skeptical it would accrete that bad.Maybe its not going to be low 30s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm sure euro is bs. Its given me 100 inches this year and taken away 117 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: had to share cause I thought it was funny... probably a legit ice storm in the blue ridge but in most places where people actually live a lot of this is during daylight and temps are only low 30s, so color me skeptical it would accrete that bad. Maybe its not going to be low 30s trust me, kinda hope it isn't. i didn't get upgraded to an ISW so I'm ready to try again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Probably our last digital blue of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Probably our last digital blue of the year Mace Windu says I don't think so 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: had to share cause I thought it was funny... probably a legit ice storm in the blue ridge but in most places where people actually live a lot of this is during daylight and temps are only low 30s, so color me skeptical it would accrete that bad. I'll pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Man, euro is dirty, esp for N and W of the cities. I'm all-in. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Probably our last digital blue of the year Dude...March is a winter month now...it's replaced december....We'll be chasing something on March 26th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 34 minutes ago, yoda said: Famous last words of a weather weenie... EPS should be interesting to see... It's going to be straight trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 00z EPS mean is a minor push SE with the snowfall compared to 18z... not a big push... but a def SE push nonetheless RE: 2mT 00z EPS mean has everyone in 20s (except extreme NW LWX CWA in the upper teens) at 102 (06z THUR) and 108 (12z THUR). Everybody is still fine at 114 (18z THUR) except for S MD/EZF which are at 32/33. At 120 (00z FRI), I95 corridor is 32 degree dividing line. 126 (06z FRI) BR is the 32 degree dividing line... mid 30s along i95 and around 40 in St. Mary's county. 132 (12z FRI) 32 degree dividing line is out by i81 corridor, BR is mid 30s, i95 upper 30s, S MD low 40s. 138 (18z FRI) everyone above freezing -- upper 30s i81 corridor with 40-45 everyone else ETA: QPF is 0.5-0.75 area wide by 126 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 00z EPS out to 144 hours... 23/50 individ members have 2"+ at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WB 0Z Low prob positions for early Friday. Seem to be two camps... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Ji said: All models give us a major winter storm and all have trended better since psu meltdown I’m Jedi mind tricking this storm. but seriously what do you care if I’m not on board. It’s gonna do what it’s gonna do regardless. But I have my reasons to be skeptical. 1. it’s a progressive wave with no blocking. History says those typically trend north so needed a south trend (or for the coldest model to hold with absolutely no north shift) from this range is not ideally where we want to be. 2. even on guidance that is “snowy” the track is precarious. Tonight’s euro pulled off something rare. When I see that on long range guidance I’m skeptical. That track is not typically a big snow producer here. 3. I’m not a fan of ice. It’s snow or bust. If I had any interest in ice I’d probably be more excited by this setup. This setup does have icing potential. I’m just skeptical of a significant snow. 4. the only reason I may have been on board with ice was to protect my snowpack. Snow otg is my number 1 thing. I Know you don’t care. That’s fine. But one thing I love about up here is we can keep snowcover for extended periods up here. But now that it looks like my beautiful snowpack will be wiped out by a 45 degree rainstorm Tuesday (yea I’m kinda bitter about that) it’s hard to get excited by some slop Thursday. I’m very likely to end up Friday with way less on the ground then I have now. So it’s a net negative! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: @Ji savor it while it lasts I need an animated GIF!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Man, euro is dirty, esp for N and W of the cities. I'm all-in. That 1035mb high parked in Montreal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 FROM LARRY COSGROVE This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit. I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats. But it's going to take some time, this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: FROM LARRY COSGROVE This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit. I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats. But it's going to take some time, this time! Meaningful warmup in late March? Color me shocked. Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WB GFS isn't working, I take it the forecast is that bad that they don't want to show it. In better news I see they are going to start showing the para. Just in time for winter's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6z GFs is snow and sleet to start, then freezing rain, then rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Would be nice if 12z runs show a continued trend. I think the EURO showed snow at the start of the Thursday storm a few days ago. Upcoming 12z run may be the most important run of the winter for the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM seems a little colder for tomorrow...more freezy rain than past runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM seems a little colder for tomorrow...more freezy rain than past runsTrendgifthatbadboy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The trend is our friend... well in this case hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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