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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@stormtracker straight up won the internet, dropped the mic, disrobed, and walked out of the room swingin' today with that post. Mindblowingly awesome.... lol. I try to be funny around here but that is some triple next level sh!t man. Wow

Agree. It was Shakespeareian, such as it is! Hell, Cicero or Marcus Aurelius couldn't have done better if they were here now! :lol:

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@stormtracker straight up won the internet, dropped the mic, disrobed, and walked out of the room swingin' today with that post. Mindblowingly awesome.... lol. I try to be funny around here but that is some triple next level sh!t man. Wow

You missed us Bob. You know you did. 

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EPS is prob misleading. Lower resolution and imperfect snow algo. My guess is many of the "good snow" solutions aren't much different than what we saw today. 

I will say that it's entirely possible an undetected NS shortwave could carve down front the lakes and changes things quickly. If that were to happen, eps would jump on en masse. Seems to be how it works in the midrange nowadays 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is prob misleading. Lower resolution and imperfect snow algo. My guess is many of the "good snow" solutions aren't much different than what we saw today. 

I will say that it's entirely possible an undetected NS shortwave could carve down front the lakes and changes things quickly. If that were to happen, eps would jump on en masse. Seems to be how it works in the midrange nowadays 

Man we can't ever seem to get one of those shortwaves when we actually need it, lol But you'd think with the usually NS dominated nina that would be a legit shot, but...can we get something random to actually go our way? Lol

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

You missed us Bob. You know you did. 

I like a lot of people here. No doubt. But being straight honest, my time back reminded me why I shouldn't spend too much time here. The fun is fleeting at times and I have enuff un-fun stuff in my life to fill up my un-fun allotment:lol:

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I extrapolated radar out just a little to the 27th and we good. It aint over dudes. This one is ours
gfs_ref_frzn_us_56.png&key=98e466c41eed12c410e2098021b5324125fd6a58d341fd84e2e458eb26d3aecb
Nope that has shredmaker written all over it. Btw...im glad your back but dang bro...its been nothing but fail lol. Feel like when jordan returned to the nba.....

As a Wizard
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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I like a lot of people here. No doubt. But being straight honest, my time back reminded me why I shouldn't spend too much time here. The fun is fleeting at times and I have enuff un-fun stuff in my life to fill up my un-fun allotment:lol:

I get it. I have another month and a half and then I am gone until next October. 6 months a year is about all I can handle. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Nope that has shredmaker written all over it. Btw...im glad your back but dang bro...its been nothing but fail lol. Feel like when jordan returned to the nba.....

As a Wizard

Dont worry, i wont be around much longer at this rate. I'll wait until after it dumps if I come back next year:lol:

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I extrapolated radar out just a little to the 27th and we good. It aint over dudes. This one is ours

gfs_ref_frzn_us_56.png

I’d be shocked if there isn’t at least one more tease this season. The NAO looks to go back negative and once you get late in the season with shorter wavelengths that becomes enough. Doesn’t mean we get a hit or that it’s necessarily a cold pattern but there will be chances for waves to track under us.  Probably more perfect track 36 degree rainstorms and we can pretend it’s because it was just “too late” 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

18Z EPS, not giving up yet on TH either...by the way the mean ****ed SE a half tick this run as well.

7566F105-0FAC-4101-8A1F-F89F220FCD2C.png

FCD0C013-4C28-4279-9C74-524D126F6916.png

A6EFB86F-6BA6-49CC-8041-24A9F83C2E02.png

I don’t know how it got that but the mslp is UGLY. Tracks to our NW. 0z last night was the last last run of the euro I thought was hopeful. Had the SLP track up the coast. Since then it’s shifted NW. I don’t bother with clown maps unless they agree with  what reality should look like imo. A slp track from Elkins to Harrisburg isn’t a snowy look here no matter what those maps show. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know how it got that but the mslp is UGLY. Tracks to our NW. 0z last night was the last last run of the euro I thought was hopeful. Had the SLP track up the coast. Since then it’s shifted NW. I don’t bother with clown maps unless they agree with  what reality should look like imo. A slp track from Elkins to Harrisburg isn’t a snowy look here no matter what those maps show. 

Understand, perhaps there are a few low tracks that would be favorable for the NW zones.

44E619F6-EE0F-4D6B-820F-C7BB7EA37E20.png

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A slp track from Elkins to Harrisburg

Lows that track right over the apps are very unusual. Not saying it won’t or can’t happen but I’d expect that low that I’ve seen on the ICON and now in the NAM to end up either farther west or east.

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