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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker
stormtracker

Psuhoffman, how do you like your burgers and how could it be better?  

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

@stormtracker you are right to be skeptical.  I’m wrong plenty of times. But let me lay out why I think our opportunities increase the further into this pattern we get. And I feel confident not becaus

EHoffman
EHoffman

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. Nothings ever over. Crazy stuff happens. But I hate when people grasp for straws for false comfort. The 12z euro was way worse then 0z. Maybe not on the clown maps but in every way that actually matters. 

I think it was actually slightly better at 850. And the HP over the top was definitely better. Not that it matters. Better isnt good enough to stop the screaming upper level winds out of Central America. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That where my brain was about to go next...what is ENSO anymore? Lol BUT....can't you blame last year on the AO? Certainly no ENSO could do any good with +++++++...

Think of it like this. Enso is macro. It can have a pronounced effect on the winter period as a whole. Snow is micro. We get hit sometimes in the dumbest setups and epically fail with great ones no matter what enso is doing. I look at enso as an opportunity multiplier (or subtractor) in a general sense but wx is waaaaay too complicated to make broad lump statements. On paper, 2013-15 is a disaster from a macro setup. But it snowed its eyeballs out anyway. It would be dumb to root for that persistent upper level pattern if you like snow. But it ended up one of the most active back to back winters in decades for snow. 

AO is macro too. We always want a neg AO but we've had plenty of acceptable storms with a neutral or + AO and wasted more than a few long duration -AO periods because other things got in the way. Things that nobody can possibly predict until it's really close in time. 

Just watch the cruel irony of wx as we waste what appeared to be beautiful pattern at first and then when the pattern breaks apart into hippo diarrhea and a coastal hits us anyway. 

Long range is nothing more than an educated guess at the opportunity multiplier or subtractor. Ground truth of snowfall is nearly a real time sport. They can't be combined because it's impossible on nearly every level. 

The randomness of how we snow will always contain a large % of unpredictable randomness. For these reasons, long range to me is nothing more than an exercise in understanding how much is and isnt working in our favor. Ground truth cares little about either

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Think of it like this. Enso is macro. It can have a pronounced effect on the winter period as a whole. Snow is micro. We get hit sometimes in the dumbest setups and epically fail with great ones no matter what enso is doing. I look at enso as an opportunity multiplier (or subtractor) in a general sense but wx is waaaaay too complicated to make broad lump statements. On paper, 2013-15 is a disaster from a macro setup. But it snowed its eyeballs out anyway. It would be dumb to root for that persistent upper level pattern if you like snow. But it ended up one of the most active back to back winters in decades for snow. 

AO is macro too. We always want a neg AO but we've had plenty of acceptable storms with a neutral or + AO and wasted more than a few long duration -AO periods because other things got in the way. Things that nobody can possibly predict until it's really close in time. 

Just watch the cruel irony of wx as we waste what appeared to be beautiful pattern at first and then when the pattern breaks apart into hippo diarrhea but a coastal hits us anyway. 

Long range is nothing more than an educated guess at the opportunity multiplier or subtractor. Ground truth of snowfall is a real time sport. They can't be combined because it's impossible on nearly every level. 

Before you came back I had mentioned in a long range thread that I am seriously starting to wonder if Enso means anything at all in our area. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted
51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. Nothings ever over. Crazy stuff happens. But I hate when people grasp for straws for false comfort. The 12z euro was way worse then 0z. Maybe not on the clown maps but in every way that actually matters. 

After everything I've witnessed since making an arguably poor decision in returning, I have a hard time caring what anything says beyond 48 hours anymore other than noting that precipitation is still in the forecast. This is def not a year for long track or even medium track anything. Too much mental effort that loses 90% of its value just 6-12 hours after the exercise. I'm here for just the lolz again

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Before you came back I had mentioned in a long range thread that I am seriously starting to wonder if Enso means anything at all in our area. 

I personally think it depends on the month. Seems like Februaries are where this is the most prevalent. I need to find where the stat was mentioned but it referenced how there wasn't a single La Nina February in ~40 years that featured anything other than a +NAO. The Atlantic seemed to do the best to buck that trend but not only has this winter not acted like a Nina, but it's also failed in that department given that the NAO has completely relaxed and we still have 15 days in the month to go lol. The February temperature anomalies for those Ninas are pretty torcheriffic on our side of the country too.. but if you also consider the last few Nino Februaries (Feb 2020, 2019, 2016), then yeah maybe it's a bigger problem than just silly ENSO stuff lol. At the very least as others have mentioned, March has stayed pretty neutral in terms of correlating to ENSOs, and in fact regardless of ENSO we're in quite the surplus of snowfall this past decade in terms of March snowfall. Maybe that shows how the hostility of our new base state can also work to line things up better in our favor when that hostility aspect doesn't matter as much? I guess I'm rambling at this point but yeah you do have a point in the relation of ENSO nowadays, maybe more so away from the metros but it's still notable. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think it was actually slightly better at 850. And the HP over the top was definitely better. Not that it matters. Better isnt good enough to stop the screaming upper level winds out of Central America. 

I thought it was an illusion. There was a bit of a lead wave this run that activated precip along the fgen to the northeast of the main low. But that’s a detail that could be a total model figment. The actual track was way worse and the main precip shield was rain. We also got into the warm sector more. All the things that are more reliable about the big picture were worse. The bit of snow was from a fluke detail unlikely to be real.  And 0z had the same amount of snow. Maybe an inch less but it was from the actual storm not a fluke lead feature. 
 

This is what I care about. Maybe I’m crazy (definitely am) but this is what I see...I don’t care about comparing identical times because there are timing differences with the speed of the wave run to run. What matters is competing the low at its critical pass.
This was the low at its more critical point 0z.  I superimposed the low and 850 isotherm.

D78A81B1-0B19-4733-BAD8-6F324F11304C.thumb.jpeg.933914c9caa1f7978a53e6206b1eacde.jpeg
that was really close to a significant frozen (snow/sleet) event NW of 95.  

12z

This isn’t close at all. It’s a big rainstorm and it’s not close. 
52E4B000-5771-4FD4-86EA-839AFA079B92.thumb.jpeg.f7f4cdc62d3ec3fe60515cb71663bf9d.jpeg

if all you focus on is that little lead wave feature that is highly unlikely to be there next run and look at the clown maps it was ok but I’m looking at the meat of the storm. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ji said:
25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:
18Z NAM is a straight up rainstorm. If shows freezing rain during this frame. Ummm no.
sfct.us_ma.png&key=c696340025ff10a8b67b55fdc4005dd179a5e20d69037dd7c4e0dd4fd7d27b22

A far cry from the 18 and rain 48 hours ago smh

I’ll give you this. The NAM at 84 is a decent setup for Thursday. Compare the h5 NAM at 84 with the gfs.  You can see how much more suppressive it is. Tpv further west and a flat flow across the top. It’s probably just the NAM being NAM at 84 but it’s been kicking ass and taking names even at range lately so with noting it at least. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

Psuhoffman, how do you like your burgers and how could it be better?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The issue here is the onions.  The position is all wrong here.  As illustrated below, if you move the onion (red arrow) dow under the lettuce, it would be in a more ideal position.  Now the fries, which are lacking strong ketchup would need to be repositioned AND ketchup added.  The problem with the tomatoes is that there needs to be more.  

 

IMG_0660.jpg

 The cheese is less than ideal and probably should be cheddar?  We need to move the cheese, and probably the patty UNDER the lettuce and above the layer of mayo.   Now the issue here is that the combination of the mayo and juice from the burger could create a weakness in the underlying bun.   That bun would need to be fortified with not just  enriched, and thus enhanced, wheat flour, but a solid combination of water, sugar, yeast, vegetable oil (canola and/or soy), vegetable proteins (pea, potato, faba bean), sunflower oil, corn dextrose, corn maltodextrin, corn starch, salt,  BUT ALSO wheat gluten, dough conditioners (monoglycerides, datem,  ascorbic acid, azodicarbonamide, mono- and diglycerides, ethoxylatedmonoglycerides, monocalcium phosphate, enzymes, guar gum, calcium peroxide), sorbic acid, calcium propionate and/or sodium propionate (preservatives), soy lecithin.  The soy lecithin is the key and it has to be in position to hold together under the weight of the patty, onion, cheese lettuce and any other condiments.  This is vital.

 

Now personally, I would remove the lettuce (the blue X) because it bumps the burger in height unnecessarily and you’d have to basically unhinge your fuckng jaw like a snake would if eating a tiger or small horse.

Basically that burger would need a LOT of things to go right for the burger to be optimal for my tastes.

 

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Shut up Chuck

For real. There’s actually quite a bit of guidance hinting at a reloading of the pattern in 2 weeks. I’m over the doom or gloom nonsense. Wooo, it iced and rained instead of snowed because a storm tracked west of us.... winter must be over. Give me a break. It ain’t over til it’s over.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

Regarding Thursday, we all know that the GFS is terrible with cold air damming, and the evaluation period for the GFS para found that it was notably better (still not great).    Assuming some skill with the synoptic details, we can see evidence that Thursday will be colder here, especially in the morning hours:

 

sfct-3.us_ma.thumb.png.f03138ca764c47ab1c856b9e2d1b8f83.png

     Not saying that this will be a snowstorm, but the chance of another ice/sleet event is probably higher than we realize right now, especially if the precip arrives in the overnight hours Wednesday.

sfct-1.us_ma.png

 

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