stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, Clueless said: I’m glad we are folding early. Somehow comforting we have a consensus on rain rather than being teased by phantom frozen next week. Exactly. At least we get this shit out of the way early and move on 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 24 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: You can pretty much say that about every summer after the super el nino. Let's not forget about the summer of 2010, 11, and 12...triple digits were becoming more common! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @CAPE @Bob Chill this would lead to a workable look in March. Our pac issues can more easily be overcome with some blocking in March with shorter wavelengths. That’s why Nina’s (even more hostile ones) in general lose their correlation to warm/lack of snow in March. It’s not a guarantee. They don’t all end up producing but enough did that it’s obviously not wise to assume it’s over. Btw the top pattern analog that’s been showing up over and over lately is early March 1956. That pattern did turn cold and snowy later that month. But people in here would probably still complain because it was a general 3-8” snowfall across our area and 2 feet up near NYC so I know how that would go. We wouldn’t enjoy our 5” because we would be envious of the 20” to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nah that's not a thing...can have a scorching summer any year (more often than not) those were historically hot summers across the northeast. not just run-of-the-mill hot around dc. it's a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Uk 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, fujiwara79 said: those were historically hot summers across the northeast. not just run-of-the-mill hot around dc. it's a thing. You have to show the causality. What about years that end in 1 affects the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: those were historically hot summers across the northeast. not just run-of-the-mill hot around dc. it's a thing. Yeah but every 11 years isn't a thing...we had scorching summers in between! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You have to show the causality. What about years that end in 1 affects the weather? Oh I am regretting this more by the minute. I never said those years affected the weather...more like indicators. Maybe I look at as do certain things predict certain things. Certainly APPEARS that way sometimes...sometimes not. But the weather ain't affected by a particular day. Maybe particular days seem to predict the weather sometimes. Ya think if something happens less often in a certain time span, when you get there you see it as less likely. Doesn't mean it is though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @psuhoffman Even you said that years that were absolute duds like last year weren't typically flowed up by great years, did you not? Now does that mean it CAN'T happen? No. It just hasn't...and so you mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Uk Excellent model. You should totally hold your breath for that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 ^^that would also apply to the gfs and euro, which have both showed ridiculous snow and temp progs that haven’t come close to panning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You have to show the causality. What about years that end in 1 affects the weather? i'm not saying there's any causality. it's just a correlation. it could be random, but statistically that's very unlikely, to keep getting a very hot summer every 11th year. the solar cycle is 11 years, so maybe there's some causality there, but very difficult to prove the precise mechanism. come to think of it, i think the summer of 1933 was also very hot. so this correlation goes back a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 57 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: yesterday was the first time in two years dca had a high of 32 or less. today will be the second. so....there is that. kind of unbelievable that we haven't had a true arctic outbreak in three years. the midwest is experiencing an epic one now. dallas may go below zero on tuesday morning. but it'll just become stale by the time it gets here. personally, while snow is my #1 criteria for a good winter, i also consider the number of arctic outbreaks to be the second factor. in that area, we have been lacking for a while now. You always notice the pattern of artic blasts like that forms a "V" shape down from Canada...it doesn't go across the upper latitude. I even saw on the news where it dips down into Houston. ND, MN, WI get it the worst with MI a close second. Even Boston doesn't get that kind of cold, being off the ocean too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gisman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I would perceive UK's 6"+ snow in my hometown of Austin, TX (the southernmost continental US state capital with 0.3"/year average) as an unlikely solution all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Pixee said: You always notice the pattern of artic blasts like that forms a "V" shape down from Canada...it doesn't go across the upper latitude. I even saw on the news where it dips down into Houston. ND, MN, WI get it the worst with MI a close second. Even Boston doesn't get that kind of cold, being off the ocean too. if the arctic air dumps into the south central states before trudging east, then yes that's how it works. not all arctic outbreaks do that. some directly target the northeast. but we haven't had one of those in years. look at 2004 in new england. one of the coldest winters ever in new england. those arctic blasts targeted them and didn't dump into the south central states at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 UkDrunk Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, fujiwara79 said: we also seem to have scorching summers every 11 years. summer of 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010. that means this summer is going to be brutal. get ready. I don't know if you are just screwing around with Maestro or not...I sometimes suck at picking up on that stuff... but this is not an accurate representation. 2010 was scorching...truly epically hot summer. 1999 and 1988 were above average but nothing spectacular, 1987 was hotter then 1988 for instance. 1966 and 1977 were about average. and 1922, 33, 44, and 55 were below average summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Drunk Ukie? I am not wasting my time digging into it but the UK on Pivotal counts freezing rain as snow. So all it has to be is cold by a few degrees over the other guidance to make that map happen. If it does actually show SNOW then its a divergent solution. Either way unless some other guidance jumps on board its not worth close examination. Any one model all by itself is going to be wrong 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18 hours ago, stormtracker said: Man, if you see 19, brace yourself. Heavy, heavy one lane bridges. OLB+++ Funnel cloud, actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The Euro is basically a rainstorm for Tuesday. Rain and 32 NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know if you are just screwing around with Maestro or not...I sometimes suck at picking up on that stuff... but this is not an accurate representation. 2010 was scorching...truly epically hot summer. 1999 and 1988 were above average but nothing spectacular, 1987 was hotter then 1988 for instance. 1966 and 1977 were about average. and 1922, 33, 44, and 55 were below average summers. Screwing with Maestro is the name of the game here today...Despite all the craziness of everybody in here, all I gotta do is say something just a tad off and kaboom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, mappy said: Funnel cloud, actually. Hmmm, funnily enough! (seeing myself out, exiting stage left! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro is close next thur to a wintry mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Screwing with Maestro is the name of the game here today...Despite all the craziness in here, all I gotta do is say something just a tad off and kaboom... The problem with your "BIG SNOWSTORMS" correlation is that a 20" or even a 12" snowstorm in Baltimore is too rare an occurrence to be able to find those kinds of correlations. There aren't enough of them to see meaningful trends. The one meaningful trend is they mostly happen during a moderate or stronger Nino with a -NAO. That is a meaningful trend. If we lower the bar to 10" which is still a VERY significant snowfall and rare in Baltimore...the randomness is apparent. From 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 7 such 10" snowstorms. In the next 10 years they had NONE. How is there a trend there? Baltimore had 3 of them in 1987 and only 1 the rest of that decade! They had 2 in 1996 and only 1 the rest of that decade! More recently Baltimore had 3 in one year in 2010 and none in the 3 years before and after that then 2 in 3 years from 2014-2016 and none since. It is totally random. You have to manipulate the data into very specific and rare and arbitrary numbers like "exactly this many inches at this exact location" to find correlations and those correlations are meaningless because snowfall is too fluky locally for such a specific thing to have meaning. And 10" is still honestly too rare an event to get meaningful data. If we do what Wes did for DC and lower the bar to 8" at Baltimore, which is still a very rare event that does not happen most winters, we get enough snowfalls to really see "trends". But there are none. in 10 years from 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 17 8" snowstorms The next 10 years they had just 1. THen in 1978/79 they had 2 and the next 7 only 1. 1987/88 they had 4 then the next 7 only 1. 1996 they had 3 then the next 3 years none. From 2000 to 2016 there were 9 spread out pretty well...but then NONE since. You have at times focused in on too narrow of a window to find a false signal. If you only looked at the 2000 to 2016 period there seemed to be some regularity to our snowfall but when you pull back you see that was just a random short term coincidence in the longer term randomness. I have run the numbers...there is no predictability of snowfall based on recent history of past years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is close next thur to a wintry mix Is it close to being close to being close to snow? Or is it only close to close to close to close to maybe kinda being close? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is close next thur to a wintry mix And, it actually stayed mostly frozen for the favored areas Monday into Tuesday. Thursday was cold going in and then a mess. By weeks end...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is close next thur to a wintry mix Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The problem with your "BIG SNOWSTORMS" correlation is that a 20" or even a 12" snowstorm in Baltimore is too rare an occurrence to be able to find those kinds of correlations. There aren't enough of them to see meaningful trends. The one meaningful trend is they mostly happen during a moderate or stronger Nino with a -NAO. That is a meaningful trend. If we lower the bar to 10" which is still a VERY significant snowfall and rare in Baltimore...the randomness is apparent. From 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 7 such 10" snowstorms. In the next 10 years they had NONE. How is there a trend there? Baltimore had 3 of them in 1987 and only 1 the rest of that decade! They had 2 in 1996 and only 1 the rest of that decade! More recently Baltimore had 3 in one year in 2010 and none in the 3 years before and after that then 2 in 3 years from 2014-2016 and none since. It is totally random. You have to manipulate the data into very specific and rare and arbitrary numbers like "exactly this many inches at this exact location" to find correlations and those correlations are meaningless because snowfall is too fluky locally for such a specific thing to have meaning. And 10" is still honestly too rare an event to get meaningful data. If we do what Wes did for DC and lower the bar to 8" at Baltimore, which is still a very rare event that does not happen most winters, we get enough snowfalls to really see "trends". But there are none. in 10 years from 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 17 8" snowstorms The next 10 years they had just 1. THen in 1978/79 they had 2 and the next 7 only 1. 1987/88 they had 4 then the next 7 only 1. 1996 they had 3 then the next 3 years none. From 2000 to 2016 there were 9 spread out pretty well...but then NONE since. You have at times focused in on too narrow of a window to find a false signal. If you only looked at the 2000 to 2016 period there seemed to be some regularity to our snowfall but when you pull back you see that was just a random short term coincidence in the longer term randomness. I have run the numbers...there is no predictability of snowfall based on recent history of past years. Will keep that in mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer? Maybe slightly cooler but it looks essentially identical to 00z from my quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer?Thursday was never shown as a pure snowstorm and you know that. Euro shows snow to wintry mix to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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