aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? Seems like the models and the guys who read the models were wrong 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Seems like the models and the guys who read the models were wrong Yea, we need wx53's super secret analog system to step in and show NWP and the rest of us who's boss. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? We’re discussing numerology. What do you think? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we need wx53's super secret analog system to step in and show NWP and the rest of us who's boss. It's called MYASS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @losetoa6 stops posting and the whole thing goes into the crapper. There are very optimistic posters left. We can't afford to lose anymore. Come on back brother! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa correlation and causality are not the same. Correlations can be due to random chaos and when there is no logical possible link to causality that is usually the best explanation. After way too many years playing this game, one thing I've learned to do is not ask why it went wrong. The possibilities are endless and it doesnt change my muddy wet yard from being muddy and wet. My post mortem usually goes like this "well, that sure sucked a steaming pile of hippo diarrhea. Maybe next time it will be a pretty white fozen pile of hippo diarrhea". And then I crack jokes and do drugs until the next chance. Much more fun that way 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: @losetoa6 stops posting and the whole thing goes into the crapper. There are very optimistic posters left. We can't afford to lose anymore. Come on back brother! Even he would be hard pressed to find much to like about the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re discussing numerology. What do you think? Roman numerals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 seems like we spend most of our time chasing unicorns (-ao/-nao). that unicorn was here all year and didn't deliver much for dc proper. a bad pacific will easily emasculate a good atlantic. northwest of the cities it's been a satisfactory winter. it's underperformed relative to what we should have gotten based on a great -ao/-nao but better the past two winters for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For you sanity’s sake I really hope this was a joke post Yeah half-joking...but hey, what else we got? Lol Sometimes these things are meaningless, sometimes they repeat, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Watch how the cold air gets scoured out on the 12z GFS starting with the thursday cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa correlation and causality are not the same. Correlations can be due to random chaos and when there is no logical possible link to causality that is usually the best explanation. Indeed...it's like trends in sports. Just because there's a streak doesn't mean it can't be broken. However will I feel better if a streak in my favor hasn't been broken yet? Sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Watch how the cold air gets scoured out on the 12z GFS starting with the thursday cutter And we'd wanna watch that...why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Seems like the models and the guys who read the models were wrong 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we need wx53's super secret analog system to step in and show NWP and the rest of us who's boss. Actually from 2 weeks away they were just off by about 100-150 miles. Just to our NW is going to get crushed this week by several waves of frozen. The guidance was too far SE with that boundary but the error was well within what we should expect from those ranges. Once it got within the magic day 5 where details start to show it became apparent we were on the wrong side. If we want to parse why the guidance from range didn’t retrograde and break the block as fast which had the TPV and boundary pressed further east. But it’s a minor error that’s going to happen all the time at that range. It could have shifted equally the other way and pulled what it did in Dec 2016 when a similar look showed 35” from day 7 and became cold and dry with weak waves suppressed south of us. Both are equally likely and equally minor errors for long range. The problem imo is us pretending we have the ability to pin down the exact track of synoptic systems from range. Truth is there is only typically a snow “win” zone of about 100 miles with any synoptic system but from day 7 there is a typical error of hundreds of miles. So under no pattern or setup should we ever be confident in a snowfall from that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Roman numerals! Oh dear what have I done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Even he would be hard pressed to find much to like about the upcoming week. Right lol. In all seriousness though I think I would have like to rolled the dice with the look we were getting a week or so ago when the entire PV collapsed into the lakes instead of this slow bleed towards crap we've seen the last 3-4 days on the models. I'm not convinced that would've only led to bitter cold and dry. I know PSU would disagree. I think that scenario could've led to a nice storm as it lifted out. Maybe even would have produced on the the front end of it diving in. We'll never know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Heck maybe it's the number this year...Looking back, winters ending in "1" didn't turn out very well. I mean our Top 20 snowstorms: not one of them happened in a year ending in 1! It was 3, 6, 7, 8, and 9, And the solar minimums...they didn't end in 1 either...I don't believe in numerology, but...I do believe in historical trends, even if they make no scientific sense, lol we also seem to have scorching summers every 11 years. summer of 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010. that means this summer is going to be brutal. get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 on a more specific level wave spacing didn’t go our way either. The wave that popped up Monday prevented the cold from pressing behind this weekends wave. It ends up being one long wave train from Saturday to Tuesday with the front stalled to our NW. very very different then if the high had come over the top behind the wave Saturday (when there was no Monday wave). Then the spacing is too great between Monday/Tuesday and the Thursday/Friday wave. With the TPV gone and the NAO gone we needed good wave spacing to work. It’s not like that was impossible or dire we had good cold around to our NW and we’ve seen that work with some luck but we didn’t get any. Sounds too familial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill on a more specific level wave spacing didn’t go our way either. The wave that popped up Monday prevented the cold from pressing behind this weekends wave. It ends up being one long wave train from Saturday to Tuesday with the front stalled to our NW. very very different then if the high had come over the top behind the wave Saturday (when there was no Monday wave). Then the spacing is too great between Monday/Tuesday and the Thursday/Friday wave. With the TPV gone and the NAO gone we needed good wave spacing to work. It’s not like that was impossible or dire we had good cold around to our NW and we’ve seen that work with some luck but we didn’t get any. Sounds too familial. So you're saying this is locked in for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 yesterday was the first time in two years dca had a high of 32 or less. today will be the second. so....there is that. kind of unbelievable that we haven't had a true arctic outbreak in three years. the midwest is experiencing an epic one now. dallas may go below zero on tuesday morning. but it'll just become stale by the time it gets here. personally, while snow is my #1 criteria for a good winter, i also consider the number of arctic outbreaks to be the second factor. in that area, we have been lacking for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah half-joking...but hey, what else we got? Lol Sometimes these things are meaningless, sometimes they repeat, who knows? We’re living in a simulation so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Right lol. In all seriousness though I think I would have like to rolled the dice with the look we were getting a week or so ago when the entire PV collapsed into the lakes instead of this slow bleed towards crap we've seen the last 3-4 days on the models. I'm not convinced that would've only led to bitter cold and dry. I know PSU would disagree. I think that scenario could've led to a nice storm as it lifted out. Maybe even would have produced on the the front end of it diving in. We'll never know. We got a nice storm on the front end as the tpv rotated in. You and me got 6” and the cities rain from a perfect track coastal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: we also seem to have scorching summers every 11 years. summer of 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010. that means this summer is going to be brutal. get ready. You can pretty much say that about every summer after the super el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The guidance was too far SE Usually is. It’s a model bias that’s been around seemingly forever. Especially the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So you're saying this is locked in for next week? We are getting into range where the errors we need are becoming less likely. Not impossible but it’s becoming a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Usually is. It’s a model bias that’s been around seemingly forever. Especially the gfs. When there is no blocking (right now there isn’t) they are. They press the cold too much. This winter most of the time they were too far north with the boundary from long range. But DC had a few perfect track rain due to boundary temps and a few systems sheared out totally. And yes a couple did track slightly too far north but that wasn’t the primary problem until this week imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: You can pretty much say that about every summer after the super el nino. New annual grass species ( unwanted varieties ) growing here such as poa trivialis in the spring and fall, normally under control naturally by summer climate dryness and temps, now a real issue. Long range outlook puts a cap on the decreasing Atlantic SST near the surf zone soon. Most likely in the long range the Western Atlantic waters rebound quickly. Looking again at the trends from recent June to October periods of higher over night lows due to increased soil moisture and higher dew points. May not break day time records by wide margins in the coming months but the periphery of the WAR is averaging warmer June to October. Also new "warmer waters preferred " fish found in the surf zones as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’m glad we are folding early. Somehow comforting we have a consensus on rain rather than being teased by phantom frozen next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re living in a simulation so Whoa don't group me with those folks...lol just a passing...mild interest in trends is as far as I go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: we also seem to have scorching summers every 11 years. summer of 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010. that means this summer is going to be brutal. get ready. Nah that's not a thing...can have a scorching summer any year (more often than not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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