psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z eps trended warmer Thursday. This was the easiest thing to predict ever. Euro would be right about the further north wave Monday and GFS would be right about the warmer wave Thursday. I never liked Thursday much. With no TpV around to suppress the flow I don’t see how that doesn’t track west. Tuesday I loved until suddenly the TPV decided to stall and elongate NE so it comes through behind the waves instead of in front. I see nothing in the flow to press the boundary south of us other then dumb luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @CAPE ironically the pac becomes more a dumpster fire in a week just as we get the Atlantic side back to a favorable look. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The PAC pattern has been virtually the same for 3+ years now and 2 of those were ninos. This is the pac base state. We need other things to mitigate it. It’s not magically going away. We have a winner ! Maybe a hail Mary in March with shorter wavelengths and a period of blocking, but with the way things are going who really knows. I am setting my sights on a hyped hurricane season. Question is after March do we warm up rapidly or get - NAO messing up Spring. I feel the Atlantic will once again be a player in the Summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z eps trended warmer Thursday. This was the easiest thing to predict ever. Euro would be right about the further north wave Monday and GFS would be right about the warmer wave Thursday. I never liked Thursday much. With no TpV around to suppress the flow I don’t see how that doesn’t track west. Tuesday I loved until suddenly the TPV decided to stall and elongate NE so it comes through behind the waves instead of in front. I see nothing in the flow to press the boundary south of us other then dumb luck. The EPS really sucks IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, frd said: We have a winner ! Maybe a hail Mary in March with shorter wavelengths and a period of blocking, but with the way things are going who really knows. I am setting my sights on a hyped hurricane season. Question is after March do we warm up rapidly or get - NAO messing up Spring. I feel the Atlantic will once again be a player in the Summer weather. Atlantic could offset the pac in March but ATT guidance hints the next -NAO is very east based. Meanwhile the pac degrades into a true dumpster fire look in about a week. So I’m not sure that equation will work. But it’s close enough not to shut out the lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, frd said: The EPS really sucks IMHO. Honestly the Geps GEFS and eps all look about the same now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right now there is an Aleutian low, trough east of Hawaii, and a ridge in AK. The pac does not look like a Nina config to me. I think the block retrograding too far was the biggest problem. Pulled the TPV west and opened the door for a ridge in the SE. The pac isn’t great but it’s not a dumpster fire it’s kinda meh. Had the Atlantic side not broken down we would be good. I agree that effed things up, but that ship has sailed. The wave train in the Pac is such that the mean ridge is too far west. Idk, the tendency for a big ridge in that location looks Nina-ish to me, but whatever the causes, without the blocking and the trough/cold dumping out west, there isn't going to be much to inhibit the SER until there is a progression in the longwave pattern- we at least need the western ridge axis near the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE ironically the pac becomes more a dumpster fire in a week just as we get the Atlantic side back to a favorable look. Lol lol I was just looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Next week seems like non events to me We were sold a bill of goods by the models. Remember the single digit lows and 0 N and W? If we go through next week without producing, what's left? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Turn lights out and close the blinds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 lol, GFS is now ALL RAIN for Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, GFS is now ALL RAIN for Tuesday. With everything that's shifted around on guidance the last few days, these solutions are the only ones that surprise me honestly. Mixy messy was totally where my head was at. Straight rain? Didnt really see that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Tuesday I loved until suddenly the TPV decided to stall and elongate NE so it comes through behind the waves instead of in front. So that TPV landing in a bad spot...that was just a bad dice roll, was it not? Smh I guess that was a random misfortune not necessarily related to anything else? Perhpas it was just not meant to be...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, snowmagnet said: I’m still waiting for the below 0 temps as promised... Models nailed it actually but they forgot it was celsius and not fahrenheit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 All I know is that we’ve been in dead patterns only to see dumb luck, as PSU put it, prevail. In fact dumb luck probably accounts for more storms than we allow for in our disco. Why? Because getting the right macro pattern, teleconnections, setups, and track all at once basically never happens, and even getting two of those is quite difficult. So as far as I’m concerned, if we’re still within the first three months of the year, might as well cross our fingers and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With everything that's shifted around on guidance the last few days, these solutions are the only ones that surprise me honestly. Mixy messy was totally where my head was at. Straight rain? Didnt really see that coming Yeah that was a pretty quick turnaround. I wasn't expecting really any snow this upcoming week, but was sort of counting on what you say...a mix/icy mess for a couple of events with low-level cold air pretty well entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah that was a pretty quick turnaround. I wasn't expecting really any snow this upcoming week, but was sort of counting on what you say...a mix/icy mess for a couple of events with low-level cold air pretty well entrenched. When this winter was approaching I literally had zero interest. Ninas dont work well. Its how it is and its fine. Then blocking got going and wouldnt let go so I got sucked in. Which is fine as there is some good history with blocked ninas. Seems to be doing what ninas do best... find ways to nutpunch our area. A fine job I may add. I'm much less interested in wx now so time to crack jokes or go silent. One or the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Thursday is now 85% RAIN as well. What a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So that TPV landing in a bad spot...that was just a bad dice roll, was it not? Smh I guess that was a random misfortune not necessarily related to anything else? Perhpas it was just not meant to be...smh No snow hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, GFS is now ALL RAIN for Tuesday. According to @Wentzadelphia that’s good for Thursday right. RIGHT??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Might be about that panic room time lol. We had periods that were called the best since the blizzard of 1996 and another two periods that were the brother of snowmaggedon, plus an upcoming period that was supposed to feature 30+ inches of snow and be cold and snowy. Instead, we've gotten several slop storms to total anywhere from 10-15 inches. What a winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thursday is now 85% RAIN as well. What a time Hope you like La Nina livin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We were sold a bill of goods by the models. Remember the single digit lows and 0 N and W? If we go through next week without producing, what's left? Lets hope they are equally wrong about where the pattern heads by the end of the month. If that's the way its going, we may have a chance or 2 as the longwave pattern progresses east beginning late next week and before it transitions to full on Nina Pac dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Wentzadelphia so we got what you wanted with Tuesday now going way to our west so why is Thursday still degrading across guidance also?????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I agree that effed things up, but that ship has sailed. The wave train in the Pac is such that the mean ridge is too far west. Idk, the tendency for a big ridge in that location looks Nina-ish to me, but whatever the causes, without the blocking and the trough/cold dumping out west, there isn't going to be much to inhibit the SER until there is a progression in the longwave pattern- we at least need the western ridge axis near the west coast. I think we’re splitting hairs. There are some Nina characteristics but also some not. The pac currently is a mix match or some good and some bad features. Like we’ve pointed out in about 10 days it looks like a totally canonical Nina. But it’s been a Nina all winter so.... Also I don’t think we can attribute the pac ridge to Nina when it’s been there for years including 2 ninos! I think that’s a permanent pac base state due to warmer SSTs now. I think that’s going to be there to some degree ALL THE TIME regardless of enso until the whole pac and IO SST non tropical base state changes. The last 4 enso events didn’t produce a typical response. I don’t think enso is driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Wentzadelphia so we got what you wanted with Tuesday now going way to our west so why is Thursday still degrading across guidance also?????? Tuesday isnt rainy enough yet. Give it some time. Once FFWs go up tuesday, incoming thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Heck maybe it's the number this year...Looking back, winters ending in "1" didn't turn out very well. I mean our Top 20 snowstorms: not one of them happened in a year ending in 1! It was 3, 6, 7, 8, and 9, And the solar minimums...they didn't end in 1 either...I don't believe in numerology, but...I do believe in historical trends, even if they make no scientific sense, lol For you sanity’s sake I really hope this was a joke post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Maestrobjwa correlation and causality are not the same. Correlations can be due to random chaos and when there is no logical possible link to causality that is usually the best explanation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? A lot like December and much of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts