clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The flow at 850 on the GFS is troubling to say the least. Straight out of the Yucatan isnt gonna cut it for the Tuesday event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Still a decent ice storm for the favored spots, but near the corridor, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Too easy to simply attribute that to Nina though. 1. We haven’t had any SE ridge all winter...2. The Mjo is not in a typical Nina phase right now so ironically we’re getting a Nina response without Nina tropical pac forcing. It hasn't been an issue, but it is now, which fits most of the LR predictions heading through Feb. The relaxation in the -NAO is untimely. The current/advertised H5 pattern sure looks like a Nina, and since we are in a Nina, I will keep it simple and call a duck a duck lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: It hasn't been an issue, but it is now, which fits most of the LR predictions heading through Feb. The relaxation in the -NAO is untimely. The current/advertised H5 pattern sure looks like a Nina, and since we are in a Nina, I will keep it simple and call a duck a duck lol. So what you’re saying is we are totally ducked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Tuesdays storm is trending to be a non event. Went from 18 and ice to 29 ice in Leesburg in just 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Scraff said: So what you’re saying is we are totally ducked? LOL. Decent chance things improve and we have more favorable periods ahead. The next week is going to offer some wintry weather, so its not like awful, but we need to shift that trough east to get back into a pattern where it is more favorable for snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Tuesdays storm is trending to be a non event. Went from 18 and ice to 29 ice in Leesburg in just 4 runs Thursdays storm looks colder....that's the one! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: That's a small intestine swath of freezy drizzle 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Thursdays storm looks colder....that's the one! Colder at the surface. But still the Yucatan express at the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Colder at the surface. But still the Yucatan express at the upper levels. With the "pig" in the lower right of the graphic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: It would figure when my area jacks its ZR...gimme the ax in forehead emoji stat 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: Thursdays storm looks colder....that's the one! Couldn't it help the Thursday system, if the Tuesday system ends up being a little more amped? Could leave lower heights behind it and more of a colder push in front of the Thursday system. Also, GFS has tended to be overly amped in the medium range. 72-120hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: Couldn't it help the Thursday system, if the Tuesday system ends up being a little more amped? Could leave lower heights behind it and more of a colder push in front of the Thursday system. I'm not smart enough to give you good answer one way or another. We have 3 events (Sat, Tues, and Thursday). Better approach is to take one by one and not worry/think to much about any until the one before it is resolved. Trend all year as been to de-amp waves and warm the boundary layer so until that changes at gametime, that's where my thinking is for the current pattern for the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The storm late next week may or may not work out for our region, but it looks like it will knock down the SE/WA ridge and potentially set us up for the end of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: @psuhoffman What do we need to be on the winning side for next Tuesday? TPV in a better location? Less wave on Monday? Tpv further south and out ahead more, initial wave less amped so the cold can press ahead. The looks I liked were when there was no wave Sunday/Monday. Now it’s looking like Monday is the wave. But the cold is still west. One issue the TPV started to take on more of a SW to NE elongation v am east to west from days ago. That allowed more ridging and less confluence in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nice 1034 hpc in quebec for Thursday as precip moves in on the 12z gfs. Doubt the cold erodes as fast as shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: HM posted the revenge/return of the North Atlantic low....assuming that means the end of the -NAO or at least temporary end I’m wondering if we can get the blocking to return by the very end of the month. I’d love to roll the dice with another block in marchs bowling season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I cant believe we are going to go through a 2 month historic blocking period without getting crushed at least once. It appears that way anyways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 I’m trying to tell you guys, just start a thread for Tuesday. They always trend the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The SE ridge might have been tame but the WAR has caused problems at times. 52 minutes ago, frd said: Have said over and over that the WAR , and the configuration of warmth is a player. HM even stated the above average NW Atlantic SST anomaly does exist. Bluewave mentioned it had a hand in the wet period last Summer. It seems it is a major factor in keeping the Eastern Untied States warmer than normal. Also, in the summer it may play a role in higher overnight lows and increased dew points as well. National Geographic did a special last year on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In it it was mentioned that the periphery of the WAR when looked at over time seems to be edging more Western and North putting the major cites of the Eastern seaboard at risk for a powerful hurricane in the years ahead. The SST warmth is definitely a factor and I’ve said that a few times but that’s not the same as the SE ridge or WAR. Both have been muted this year. Doesn’t mean some warmth didn’t penetrate the east coast due to warm SSTs but the dominant pattern was not a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I cant believe we are going to go through a 2 month historic blocking period without getting crushed at least once. It appears that way anyways. La ninas can be a real b*tch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I cant believe we are going to go through a 2 month historic blocking period without getting crushed at least once. It appears that way anyways. Please see your friendly neighborhood reaper @WxWatcher007 for further instructions. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's a small intestine swath of freezy drizzle 33 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Learning to use the paintbrush function? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The SST warmth is definitely a factor and I’ve said that a few times but that’s not the same as the SE ridge or WAR. Both have been muted this year. Doesn’t mean some warmth didn’t penetrate the east coast due to warm SSTs but the dominant pattern was not a SE ridge. Those composites don’t necessarily show the real picture and are heavily influenced by the January we just went through that featured a shred factory fright along the MA coast. Every time we’ve gotten into a precip pattern we’ve had a high sitting right over Bermuda. Look at the gfs for the next ten days. See anything interesting right around Bermuda? You can call it whatever you want, SER, WAR, doesn’t matter. It’s a wall. We would actually be better of with a SER over the gulf. At least we might get some cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Now is when the euro will come in and tell us that we are getting 14.3” of snow over the next ten days. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those composites don’t necessarily show the real picture and are heavily influenced by the January we just went through that featured a shred factory fright along the MA coast. Every time we’ve gotten into a precip pattern we’ve had a high sitting right over Bermuda. Look at the gfs for the next ten days. See anything interesting right around Bermuda? You can call it whatever you want, SER, WAR, doesn’t matter. It’s a wall. We would actually be better of with a SER over the gulf. At least we might get some cad. There is always some variance in every season. Yes there were some brief interludes where a SE ridge of WAR showed. And of course "suppression" is less of a problem during those times. But from the means you can see that was not the dominant pattern. I am not disputing that the look coming up it becomes a bigger problem and lasts longer then previous very brief 1-2 day periods of SE ridge we had before this...and the main reason is the AO/NAO have finally broken down. There is some sign they may return but unfortunately for us our biggest problem now is that we lost the one thing that was possibly going to make this period coming up "epic". The key was to get enough blocking to suppress the boundary. But as the blocking has relaxed on guidance the boundary has shifted north. Its a pretty clear correlation. But you bring up the shred factory...that was a BIGGER problem frankly then the SE ridge which was only around for a few brief windows. The annoying thing this year has been due to a lack of cold...the amount of suppression it took to keep storms under us also shredded them. There wasn't a good baroclinic boundary to work with for most of the winter...and we finally have one now and the NAO decides its time to take a vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 For questions about Thursday...yes the more amped system Tuesday could help but frankly I don't see an amped system. Its just waves riding the boundary like I thought it would be. The problem is the boundary is 150 miles NW of where I thought it would be and discussed above why that happened. That boundary will shift east for a bit behind the Tuesday wave...but the problem Thursday is the cold is getting pretty stale by then and the TPV has moved out. It could work if the wave is weak and runs the boundary without pressing it back north. I am not ruling that out. But the setup thurday has a lot less working for it then the setup we saw for Tuesday before the TPV decided to pull back and elongate northeast v East. We had a TPV in the way, arctic air on top, high in the way...there was a lot to like. Thursday we need the wave to thread the needle. We might have a nice high in the way but it wont have as much locking it in as we thought Tuesday would. If you want to see what went wrong Tuesday go back and look at the TPV on Tuesday and what has happened to that over the last few days of runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 probably wont mean anything but early on at 48 hours the euro has the boundary further east and pressing more...less ridging in front. The Saturday night wave was stronger and helped to suppress the flow behind it a little bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: probably wont mean anything but early on at 48 hours the euro has the boundary further east and pressing more...less ridging in front. The Saturday night wave was stronger and helped to suppress the flow behind it a little bit. i noticed that as well. We dont even get close to any precip from the "in between wave" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts