Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was just making a general observation and pinning it on Ji because I really do like the guy and a little tough love goes a long way its alot of effort to do that. it was alot easier to do with those 4 panel but the graphics suck. is there any good site that this one click magic? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/CMC_0zA/cmc42.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here. Have you ever considered that perhaps the reason why people focus too much on the precip panels is that the other panels aren't exactly the most understood by the casual observer? I know I open up those other panels and I don't know what the heck I'm looking at half the time (and don't want to bog folks down with questions here). So if the panels are akin to a foreign language, of course the precip colors would be the unfortunate default folks go to. Because it's like...blue, green, pink...what ya see on TV. Now...I'm not saying folks can't learn. But I'm not sure there have been any specific, layperson-friendly sources discussed in this forum that help break these things down a little more (like I said earlier, some of you are capable of putting together YouTube tutorials, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Have you ever considered that perhaps the reason why people focus too much on the precip panels is that the other panels aren't exactly the most understood by the casual observer? I know I open up those other panels and I don't know what the heck I'm looking at half the time (and don't want to bog folks down with questions here). So if the panels are akin to a foreign language, of course the precip colors would be the unfortunate default folks go to. Because it's like...blue, green, pink...what ya see on TV. Now...I'm not saying folks can't learn. But I'm not sure there have been any specific, layperson-friendly sources discussed in this forum that help break these things down a little more (like I said earlier, some of you are capable of putting together YouTube tutorials, lol) There are some excellent resources here: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Random thought whatever happened to that Henry guy from accuweather who over hyped every single winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Have you ever considered that perhaps the reason why people focus too much on the precip panels is that the other panels aren't exactly the most understood by the casual observer? I know I open up those other panels and I don't know what the heck I'm looking at half the time (and don't want to bog folks down with questions here). So if the panels are akin to a foreign language, of course the precip colors would be the unfortunate default folks go to. Because it's like...blue, green, pink...what ya see on TV. Now...I'm not saying folks can't learn. But I'm not sure there have been any specific, layperson-friendly sources discussed in this forum that help break these things down a little more (like I said earlier, some of you are capable of putting together YouTube tutorials, lol) Youtube is stuffed with easy tutorial videos and countless other sources are easily found around the web. All 101 stuff and not super technical. It does takes time and commitment to learning if you are willing. Check out Joe Cioffi's youtube video called "roadmaps to the atmosphere". Excellent explanation of 500mb plots for wx enthusiests. There is no easier time than today to learn about the stuff. The resources available are countless 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: its alot of effort to do that. it was alot easier to do with those 4 panel but the graphics suck. is there any good site that this one click magic? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/CMC_0zA/cmc42.html Dude, you run a weather page on facebook and you say it's a lot of effort to click through something other than surface plots? Am I understanding this correctly? Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Awilson said: Random thought whatever happened to that Henry guy from accuweather who over hyped every single winter storm Pretty sure he retired and started his own blog or weather company. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Dude, you run a weather page on facebook and you say it's a lot of effort to click through something other than surface plots? Am I understanding this correctly? LolIts still alot of effort...and it dosent pay anything lol. And its super time consuming. But i do make the effort lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: did it really? These maps for the 24hr period that the Tuesday storm would mostly happen in look fairly identical. If you were referring to a difference between 12z and 00z I'd agree more but I'd say closer to .5"-1". 12z: 06z: I compared the whole next 10 days from 0z to 12z subtracting the snow from last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, you run a weather page on facebook and you say it's a lot of effort to click through something other than surface plots? Am I understanding this correctly? Lol Its still alot of effort...and it dosent pay anything lol. And its super time consuming. But i do make the effort lol Ji I’m sure you noticed but not only does your Facebook weather page have lots of followers but it also has at least 1 spinoff Facebook group called “fans of jays wintery mix”. lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Ji I’m sure you noticed but not only does your Facebook weather page have lots of followers but it also has at least 1 spinoff Facebook group called “fans of jays wintery mix”. lol. Lol i actually post alot of 500mb maps on my page and nobody knows what they mean besides wow look at the nice colors. I even posted a sounding yesterday lol. And thats scary about the spinoff. I never wanted the page to get like that. It was originally for family and friends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Wasn’t a fan of 18z euro at the end of run fwiw. Less tpv press and more separation between waves. Heights ticked higher as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wasn’t a fan of 18z euro at the end of run fwiw. Less tpv press and more separation between waves. Heights ticked higher as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wasn’t a fan of 18z euro at the end of run fwiw. Less tpv press and more separation between waves. Heights ticked higher as well. The end of any run is worth a pile of sh*t right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: The end of any run is worth a pile of sh*t right now. I’d post gif but not sure how to on here to compare runs, but regardless I agree the euro has sucked lately especially, was just posting for prosperity. The eps actually looked better surprisingly. Very odd storm right now on the guidance. This is like ptype nightmare to the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wasn’t a fan of 18z euro at the end of run fwiw. Less tpv press and more separation between waves. Heights ticked higher as well. Don't do it....it isnt the same King it once was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Wasn’t a fan of 18z euro at the end of run fwiw. Less tpv press and more separation between waves. Heights ticked higher as well. Save that for the Philly board man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I’d post gif but not sure how to on here to compare runs, but regardless I agree the euro has sucked lately especially, was just posting for prosperity. The eps actually looked better surprisingly. Very odd storm right now on the guidance. This is like ptype nightmare to the max. There is nothing easy to forecast over the next 7 days. Very very touchy setup. It will amplify the typical "little things make big differences". I for one am not expecting a clean snowstorm anytime soon. I'm also skeptical of a mostly snowstorm. The primary reason these juicy storms appear to be on the way is strong midlevel flow out of the gulf. It's just pumping and there's not a strong signal for a 50/50, legit confluence, sprawling hp etc. Big snows (if they happen) will be on a knife edge unless we can get something to bully back midlevel warmth from rushing in. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There is nothing easy to forecast over the next 7 days. Very very touchy setup. It will amplify the typical "little things make big differences". I for one am not expecting a clean snowstorm anytime soon. I'm also skeptical of a mostly snowstorm. The primary reason these juicy storms appear to be on the way is strong midlevel flow out of the gulf. It's just pumping and there's not a strong signal for a 50/50, legit confluence, sprawling hp etc. Big snows (if they happen) will be on a knife edge unless we can get something to bully back midlevel warmth from rushing in. The weakening of the wave Saturday is setting off a chain reaction I don’t think I like. The weaker wave Saturday opens the door for a wave that was previously squashed between Saturday/Tuesday to amplify. Problem is that wave comes after the current cold press has been scoured by the southerly flow of the Saturday wave and before cold can get in from the eventual TPV sliding across on top of us Monday. Additionally the wave Sunday/Monday will prevent the cold from pressing in ahead of the wave Tuesday meaning we would need the cold to come in just in time. The only positive is with even less space the wave Tuesday is less likely to amp up but I already expected that trend to continue. This progression sucks because it could wipe out all the snow Monday for the northern half of the forum which besides simply sucking itself would also hinder the surface temps for the next 2 waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The weakening of the wave Saturday is setting off a chain reaction I don’t think I like. The weaker wave Saturday opens the door for a wave that was previously squashed between Saturday/Tuesday to amplify. Problem is that wave comes after the current cold press has been scoured by the southerly flow of the Saturday wave and before cold can get in from the eventual TPV sliding across on top of us Monday. Additionally the wave Sunday/Monday will prevent the cold from pressing in ahead of the wave Tuesday meaning we would need the cold to come in just in time. The only positive is with even less space the wave Tuesday is less likely to amp up but I already expected that trend to continue. This progression sucks because it could wipe out all the snow Monday for the northern half of the forum which besides simply sucking itself would also hinder the surface temps for the next 2 waves. Aw man...these random things messing stuff up are frustrating as heck...The heck is happening to the Saturday wave to make it weaken it, anyway? Dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 So far it’s only showing on the rgen and NAM at range. Hopefully nothing else moves towards that progression at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: So far it’s only showing on the rgen and NAM at range. Hopefully nothing else moves towards that progression at 0z. I hope not either...your post was the most bad news you've delivered since January last year, lol I mean to get nothing out of either southern wave next week because of something discreet and random would be a bit of a heartbreaker.....hope we can get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I hope not either...your post was the most bad news you've delivered since January last year, lol I mean to get nothing out of either southern wave next week because of something discreet and random would be a bit of a heartbreaker.....hope we can get something Everything is random. Weather is chaos. If it doesn’t snow we will be ok. We always are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ICON showing the fail scenario mentioned...cold air scoured out...as storm approaches. Dang it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: ICON showing the fail scenario mentioned...cold air scoured out...as storm approaches. Dang it... Practically no snow, but it's still advertising FRZA on Saturday and Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Practically no snow, but it's still advertising FRZA on Saturday and Tuesday. Tuesday was mostly plain rain, wasn't it? See I can't tell on the ICON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: ICON showing the fail scenario mentioned...cold air scoured out...as storm approaches. Dang it... Look at temps. It would be a major ice storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Tuesday was mostly plain rain, wasn't it? See I can't tell on the ICON... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Tuesday was mostly plain rain, wasn't it? See I can't tell on the ICON... Check surface temps. Icon doesn't depict zr or sleet Ninja'd twice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That's a massive ice storm as depicted, Maestro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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