87storms Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The Tuesday storm may evolve into our best look of the year. It has potential. Plenty of cold around to the north. It’s not a weak wave either. Might just need to get the boundary to sag far enough south prior to that wave cutting through to keep mid levels at bay. Not sure we want to go into Monday with remnant energy from the next system too close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The RGEM Waiting on @stormtracker to say "the RGEM can eat it!"...bet it's still on his s*it list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Why the fuuck are y'all so lazy? Surface p-type maps are garbage. lol if i was lazy i wouldnt of looked up the temp. Just thought it was odd. Relax dude its just rain(green) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Looks like you are in one of the purple/pink columns. What's up with purple pink columns?! Game of Tetris?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The weak wave Monday is hurting our chances Tuesday Imo. Prevents the high from building in. Oh great...and let's see where that NS junk is coming from....is that the Great Lakes?? If so, usual suspect...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol if i was lazy i wouldnt of looked up the temp. Just thought it was odd. Relax dude its just rain(green) lol you blamed it on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Seems to be the system PSU mentioned that really hurts our chances of letting the HP funnel some colder air in. I think you can see the response from that system being much weaker on the NAM. Check out hr 84 for the NAM, core of the TPV cold is a fair bit farther west of the GFS yet the 850s are still more favorable. Haven't looked all that closely...is this only showing up in the regional models suddenly today? Don't recall that thing on Monday (or late Sunday) being mentioned until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 There are so many waves flying around. The models have to be struggling with that. We might be in nowcast mode for the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Haven't looked all that closely...is this only showing up in the regional models suddenly today? Don't recall that thing on Monday (or late Sunday) being mentioned until now. Well let's hope that the NAM has the right idea on that wave being weaker...that's one of those annoying discreet details we can't see from range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol you blamed it on the GFS. its the default thing to do 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. I thought it would be clear that it’s a graphics issue. Guess not. The GFS thing is definitely a graphics issue. But the RGEM actually does have warmer surface temperatures Sun/Mon and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 who can i blame this on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: The GFS thing is definitely a graphics issue. But the RGEM actually does have warmer surface temperatures Sun/Mon and rain. lol i dont think the RGEM and GFS are showing the same storm. the GFS shows heavy snow and 15 for parts of the area 12z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Ji said: its the default thing to do I wish it was rain/green. That would be devastating here. Luckily, I don't believe it for a second. Light ice, sure. If I have temps in the low to mid 20s here for that duration, history says it wont be freezing rain. Actual outcome given the pattern- those temps will be 10 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 can we talk about this frame lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Ji said: lol i dont think the RGEM and GFS are showing the same storm. the GFS shows heavy snow and 15 for parts of the area 12z Tuesday True. I don't know what that is in the RGEM on Sun/Mon or when it started to appear. Then again, the RGEM indicated 45" snow for us the other week (slight exaggeration!)...so whatever. I take it the GFS doesn't have nearly that strong of a "follow-up" wave on Sun/Mon like that. I take a bit of pause that the NAM shows a similar, though weaker, kind of thing that the RGEM depicts in that time frame. Worth looking out for I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I wish it was rain/green. That would be devastating here. Luckily, I don't believe it for a second. Light ice, sure. If I have temps in the low to mid 20s here for that duration, history says it wont be freezing rain. Actual outcome given the pattern- those temps will be 10 degrees warmer. ice storm might knock us of the internet/this forum for a while. May not be a bad thing. But every model has this storm in the low to mid 20's. As long as you stay home and dont drive and dont lose power, it actually might be fun and mysterious lol 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: True. I don't know what that is in the RGEM on Sun/Mon or when it started to appear. Then again, the RGEM indicated 45" snow for us the other week (slight exaggeration!)...so whatever. I take it the GFS doesn't have nearly that strong of a "follow-up" wave on Sun/Mon like that. I take a bit of pause that the NAM shows a similar, though weaker, kind of thing that the RGEM depicts in that time frame. Worth looking out for I guess. the RGEM also had our area getting plastered with Wave 2 snow in yesterdays run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why the fuuck are y'all so lazy? Surface p-type maps are garbage. Some people just like to see BLUE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: ice storm might knock us of the internet/this forum for a while. May not be a bad thing. But every model has this storm in the low to mid 20's. As long as you stay home and dont drive and dont lose power, it actually might be fun and mysterious lol Might be the case well NW, but not likely here, thankfully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: lol i dont think the RGEM and GFS are showing the same storm. the GFS shows heavy snow and 15 for parts of the area 12z Tuesday Thats the problem. The god damn models are inventing waves now. What a crazy week we have coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 26 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS has green when the temp is 19 degrees. awesome Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here. Apparently that was just Ji being Ji. He is a funny guy, ya know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 You know a good ice storm for us on Saturday if it knocks out the power and thus the form would probably be good for all of our mental health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here. Good points. I admittedly do click through those ptype maps initially for a quick overview...but mostly to get some idea of the surface positions, extent of precip and how it moves, etc. I already knew that the Tuesday potential was likely to involve a lot of ice, so then immediately looked at the surface temps (cold!) and other parameters above that level. And sure enough, it's clear the algorithm wasn't handling it right. No need for anyone to freak out for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here. I have had way too many Yeunglings to take the time to do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ji said: can we talk about this frame lol Euro/gfs have that too just not in same spot. It’s the frontal boundary from high. Could be some lead precip out ahead of the low. This is from gfs but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Apparently that was just Ji being Ji. He is a funny guy, ya know. I was just making a general observation and pinning it on Ji because I really do like the guy and a little tough love goes a long way 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Good points. I admittedly do click through those ptype maps initially for a quick overview...but mostly to get some idea of the surface positions, extent of precip and how it moves, etc. I already knew that the Tuesday potential was likely to involve a lot of ice, so then immediately looked at the surface temps (cold!) and other parameters above that level. And sure enough, it's clear the algorithm wasn't handling it right. No need for anyone to freak out for sure. WB surface maps are better than TT, but they are still bad. You cannot glean anything other than a general idea, which is never good enough. Snow maps are awful ofc. Only surface based map worth looking at(other than temps, pressure etc) is precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: WB surface maps are better than TT, but they are still bad. You cannot glean anything other than a general idea, which is never good enough. Snow maps are awful ofc. Only surface based map worth looking at(other than temps, pressure etc) is precip. One of my rules with sw midlevel flow and dicey midlevel temps in general is if models show the mix line pushing north of EZF you can expect nova and dc to mix no matter what they show from there. Same with my yard 75% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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