WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro definitely took another step toward a more coastal-dominant solution. OH Valley primary weaker and low on the coast takes over sooner. Just a bit too late for us this round verbatim. Another major ice storm. The euro sounding for Saturday is straight up freezing rain, not even a chance for sleet IMO. But it’s soundings for Tuesday don’t support anything but snow. Scratch that. I didn’t realize that the sounding I was looking at was not the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That warm nose on the Euro is nuts... warmer up at 700mb than it is down at 925mb. Not an airmass we can get a stone cold beatdown with, but still seems wintry. What day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Another Miller b transfer that I refuse to get my hopes up for. It’s a gulf low hybrid though. It’s all about the latitude of the transfer. If it happens far enough south those are fine here. It’s not a west to east NS miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Why are the soundings in pivotal not matched to the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What day? For the Tuesday event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Is there any place to get euro soundings free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Why are the soundings in pivotal not matched to the model? Dunno if this is why but if you just look at the 0 isotherm it’s a bit misleading because there is a huge area of right near 0 air at h85 and h7 south of the 0 isotherm on the map. eta: that screams a setup where heavy banding cools the column to snow and lighter precip is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a gulf low hybrid though. It’s all about the latitude of the transfer. If it happens far enough south those are fine here. It’s not a west to east NS miller b. Interesting I never knew that actually. Others have chimed in the same. What latitude makes it ‘officially’ a hybrid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Dunno if this is why but if you just look at the 0 isotherm it’s a bit misleading because there is a huge area of right near 0 air at h85 and h7 south of the 0 isotherm on the map. eta: that screams a setup where heavy banding cools the column to snow and lighter precip is sleet Yeah it had me looking at Canadian soundings. Those soundings are snow all the way. I can’t see euro soundings. At least I don’t know how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Interesting I never knew that actually. Others have chimed in the same. What latitude makes it ‘officially’ a hybrid? It’s about origin. The storm originated as a SS wave along the gulf but it tracks up west of the Apps initially then jumps to a secondary. That’s hybrid. Pure miller b us all NS. Typically a west to east NS wave that jumps to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Euro gives out another ice storm late next week. 3 ice storms in the same week would be something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Euro gives out another ice storm late next week. 3 ice storms in the same week would be something. That’s trending south too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Euro gives out another ice storm late next week. 3 ice storms in the same week would be something. Yeah this is kinda wild...I'd love to know what the large scale cause of all this is that the models are spitting out such icy solutions. Something the the TPV? Another reason? Hm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s about origin. The storm originated as a SS wave along the gulf but it tracks up west of the Apps initially then jumps to a secondary. That’s hybrid. Pure miller b us all NS. Typically a west to east NS wave that jumps to the coast. i bet what the euro shows now for tuesday will not resemble the map that occurs on Tuesday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Euro also trended east with the Day7-8 ice to rain storm. We get more sleet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 it looks like JMA has a snowstorm on Thursday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s trending south too Is that the one that was looking like a cutter, or at least well northwest of us? I think the GFS still had it that way, not sure, but yeah this would be a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1036 HP in perfect position over the lakes going into the Tuesday event on the Euro. It is COLD where that HP is. I cant see this one mixing as much as it shows. But what do I know? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 enjoy? who likes ice skating? might be fun 2 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 37 minutes ago, Paleocene said: This diagonal line SE of DC for the Euro next tues will verify, right? Yup. Just as all of those random blobs of snow in the midst of the freezing rain VA will pan out verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Better.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 26 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Is that the one that was looking like a cutter, or at least well northwest of us? I think the GFS still had it that way, not sure, but yeah this would be a change. yes now its not really that much of a cutter as just a late transfer and I expect it to continue to trend. I keep pointing this out, and ERS did also, that guidance all season has continually wanted to phase systems to our west and over amplify them. In reality the NS and SS have remained unphased with the SS waves typically riding the boundary along the eastern edge of the trough and transferring to the coastal baroclinic zone instead. DC has failed for other reasons but cutters has not been one of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is there any place to get euro soundings free? Yeah, I got them for next week here 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, I got them for next week here Sucker born every minute! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Better.. Definitely much better. Give us that primary low at the KY/VA border transferring to that southern most 1005mb low and were in business that sub 100mb low near Erie PA can eat my shorts and get on outta here. That would annihilate our mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I'm already tired of modeled ice storms. One is cool. 3, not so much. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm already tired of modeled ice storms. One is cool. 3, not so much. At least you won’t lose tons of sleep tracking them! Ice storms always seem to be the ones that pan out nearly verbatim from a week away.... 6-12+“ snowfall depictions? Not so much 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Definitely much better. Give us that primary low at the KY/VA border transferring to that southern most 1005mb low and were in business Not particularly enthused for here, but you NW folks might make out better. I really have no interest in sleet/freezing rain to rain at this juncture. The overall h5 pattern is significantly flawed, but not unworkable for the interior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: At least you won’t lose tons of sleep tracking them! Ice storms always seem to be the ones that pan out nearly verbatim from a week away.... 6-12+“ snowfall depictions? Not so much Ice and rain storms and heat are like the sunrise and sunset here. They are a LOCK. You can set it and forget it, and not have a worry in the world about it failing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm already tired of modeled ice storms. One is cool. 3, not so much. An inch and quarter of freezing rain would be some pretty incredible stuff though. Holy shit I'm rooting for freezing rain these past two years have been rough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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