Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[jayyy]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

In addition, I can't recall a time where all models were wrong 24 hours out. If I recall, they used to get a good grip on things inside 24 hours. But lately, we've gone from frozen precip to just rain on models inside of 24 even as the radar fills in from the West or South. Even King Euro is having problems a day out. I get there are shifts. But that last minute nothing sandwich that appeared on Wednesday was just insane. 

Euro isn’t a day away type of model though. It’s an ensemble. It’s the “mid range king” 3-5 out 

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

In addition, I can't recall a time where all models were wrong 24 hours out. If I recall, they used to get a good grip on things inside 24 hours. But lately, we've gone from frozen precip to just rain on models inside of 24 even as the radar fills in from the West or South. Even King Euro is having problems a day out. I get there are shifts. But that last minute nothing sandwich that appeared on Wednesday was just insane. 

Ehhh maybe, there has been some general hiccups across the models in terms of short range projections, but I think as a whole the models have been pretty spot on <48 hours out.  I guess it's always smart to keep in mind climo 3-5 days out and expect things to change.  At day 5 a model can show a threat but to ask it to set up ptype accurately seems to be stretch.  I feel like we get hung up on snowfall and ptype at hr 120 and we miss the forest for the trees.  I'm sure as hell guilty of it too.

[87storms]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

I say trend is your friend. Trends weaker, drier over time. 

well i hope you're wrong lol.  but yea, gotta add trends to the equation.  i'd be ok with a clean advisory event, though.

[Grothar of Herndon]

22 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I think this is rather logical....why go against the seasonal trend and that tends to be cloudy and dreary versus snowy. 

We do cloudy really well.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at the "highway" height pattern at h5 leading in. Then take a look at midlevel (850) winds. Pumping out of the southwest too. That's what runs the moisture up and mix is part of the solutions (assuming models are right). There will be little if any snow punching deep into the arctic airmass because it's literally a brick of cold dry air. The battle zone is where the action is and the battle zone includes midlevel temp problems. It can def switch to a snowier solution but we need confluence to build (horizontal highways) to our north. That will fight off the warm surge. Anything is possible really. It's very touchy even at close range. 

I see. Now admittedly I'm having trouble visualizing what's going on here and looking at the right maps...unclear on what you mean by "highways" (this is where an instructional vid would be helpful...heck maybe there is one on YouTube. If not, I'm sure one of you could make one!). Will do a bit more research...but I think I kinda get what you're saying.

[adelphi_sky]

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Ehhh maybe, there has been some general hiccups across the models in terms of short range projections, but I think as a whole the models have been pretty spot on <48 hours out.  I guess it's always smart to keep in mind climo 3-5 days out and expect things to change.  At day 5 a model can show a threat but to ask it to set up ptype accurately seems to be stretch.  I feel like we get hung up on snowfall and ptype at hr 120 and we miss the forest for the trees.  I'm sure as hell guilty of it too.

So inside of 48 hours we switch to the HRRR and RDPS? Forgot how it was spelled. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Grothar of Herndon said:

We do cloudy really well.

We also do 20s before a storm then right before it comes its in the mid 30s really well, what a great region. 

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

So inside of 48 hours we switch to the HRRR and RDPS? Forgot how it was spelled. 

I think any model hugging is a recipe for missing expectations.  Better to kinda take a mix of all solutions, take note of trends, and pay attention to climo!!  Like for yesterday models had DC getting like 2-4 as late as 36 hours ago, but if you've ever been in a borderline situation in DC you just knew that wasn't going to happen.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I think any model hugging is a recipe for missing expectations.  Better to kinda take a mix of all solutions, take note of trends, and pay attention to climo!!  Like for yesterday models had DC getting like 2-4 as late as 36 hours ago, but if you've ever been in a borderline situation in DC you just knew that wasn't going to happen.

So that being said...thinking about next week (Tues): I'm not sure what you can compare that to climo-wise. Because I mean...you have the tendency for low tracks to start being modeled as cutters and ending up under us (and the 12z suite so far has shown that same tendency). But now we got the modeled ice solution...where does that trend, I wonder? I mean, historically we don't get many ice storms...yet we haven't seen this kind of setup either. It would be tempting to say (with understandable cynicism) "eh, trends to rain" but then that butts heads with he seasonal trend of lows tracking under us, lol And it's not so warm that it turns to all rain, so perhaps that's less likely (more likely to get strung out or something than that, imo. But it is a strong wave, I think...so who knows?)

[Ji]

euro looks like it has sig ice for Saturday night

[jayyy]

18 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Ehhh maybe, there has been some general hiccups across the models in terms of short range projections, but I think as a whole the models have been pretty spot on <48 hours out.  I guess it's always smart to keep in mind climo 3-5 days out and expect things to change.  At day 5 a model can show a threat but to ask it to set up ptype accurately seems to be stretch.  I feel like we get hung up on snowfall and ptype at hr 120 and we miss the forest for the trees.  I'm sure as hell guilty of it too.

Agreed. I’d argue that at least 60% of folks base their expectations off 10:1 or kuchera clown maps from 4+ days out and do little to no further digging into what models are showing at h5, 500 mb, 850, etc. Nor do they follow basic trendlines. Many folks live and die off of losing or gaining digital snow, which is the same as literally getting on your knees and begging the snow gods to be disappointed. If people’s attitude toward storms is “well, so and so model showed MBY getting 18” a week ago, and I only got 5”, so this is a huge bust”, then yeah, sure. models are awful. But that’s not how meteorology works and that’s not how you analyze a weather model. Each model has its own biases and some models are better than others in a given situation. That’s why you’ll see LWX sometimes go with the storm track of the euro, but the thermal profile of the NAM. They understand how these models differ and correlate and how to best use / blend them based on their individual strengths and weaknesses  

The euro has actually been quite good actually this winter if you compare what it shows 3-5 out versus reality. NAM has also done quite well within 48 hours. Did DC get rain/slop versus a few inches of snow? Yes. But that’s what we use mesos for. The NAM showed that possibility and it came to fruition. Even Winchester mainly sleeted last night. It sniffed out that warm nose due to its higher resolution versus an ensemble like the Euro. That’s why NWS and other Mets consider multiple guidances when making an informed decision. Models rarely get it right from start to finish, but they grasp the overall idea and narrow the storm down into a 20-50 mile window. That’s pretty damn impressive. Combine those great tools with basic a understanding of meteorology and the climo IYBY, people will find themselves far less disappointed. There is a reason @Bob Chill doesn’t obsess over storms until the threat is within 3-5 days. It’s the logical thing to do when it comes to something like the weather, which can change on a dime. 

[snowmagnet]

33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So we're all skipping over the fact that the NAM completely shit the bed with the Saturday system now?  Like it literally fell apart.

That works fine- it’s a Saturday.  I’d prefer a decent weekend. 

[SnowenOutThere]

For Saturday it looks like it is back to everyone V the Nam model. We all know what happens.

[LeesburgWx]

How much ice are we talking for Sat? At this point, an ice storm seems like it would be the most exciting thing of the winter so far.

[snowfan]

Euro still showing .25-.3 ice on Saturday for many.

[Maestrobjwa]

Ice/sleet storm idea still alive on the Euro...will see if the next NAM run still looks kinda lackluster, or if it was a blip!

[Kmlwx]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

How much ice are we talking for Sat? At this point, an ice storm seems like it would be the most exciting thing of the winter so far.

I've seen between a tenth and a half inch of icing depending on what model you look at and your geographical location. 

[rjvanals]

Euro is ~ around .3 qpf in DC area (half of what it was showing at 00Z) 

[WxUSAF]

New thread for Saturday's ice storm now.  

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

who wants all that ZR and power outages?

Not most people.  But not sure what that has to do with the fact that the NAM completely lost a storm/period of interest?

[LP08]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Agreed. I’d argue that at least 60% of folks base their expectations off 10:1 or kuchera clown maps from 4+ days out and do little to no further digging into what models are showing at h5, 500 mb, 850, etc. Nor do they follow basic trendlines. Many folks live and die off of losing or gaining digital snow, which is the same as literally getting on your knees and begging the snow gods to be disappointed. If people’s attitude toward storms is “well, so and so model showed MBY getting 18” a week ago, and I only got 5”, so this is a huge bust”, then yeah, sure. models are awful. But that’s not how meteorology works and that’s not how you analyze a weather model. Each model has its own biases and some models are better than others in a given situation. That’s why you’ll see LWX sometimes go with the storm track of the euro, but the thermal profile of the NAM. They understand how these models differ and correlate and how to best use / blend them based on their individual strengths and weaknesses  

The euro has actually been quite good actually this winter if you compare what it shows 3-5 out versus reality. NAM has also done quite well within 48 hours. Did DC get rain/slop versus a few inches of snow? Yes. But that’s what we use mesos for. The NAM showed that possibility and it came to fruition. Even Winchester mainly sleeted last night. It sniffed out that warm nose due to its higher resolution versus an ensemble like the Euro. That’s why NWS and other Mets consider multiple guidances when making an informed decision. Models rarely get it right from start to finish, but they grasp the overall idea and narrow the storm down into a 20-50 mile window. That’s pretty damn impressive. Combine those great tools with basic a understanding of meteorology and the climo IYBY, people will find themselves far less disappointed. There is a reason @Bob Chill doesn’t obsess over storms until the threat is within 3-5 days. It’s the logical thing to do when it comes to something like the weather, which can change on a dime. 

I don't think i agree with the Euro part.  Euro was almost entirely the 2nd wave until 1-2 days before  the event.  You may have gotten the same amount of snow from the 2 systems but not because the euro was right.  It completely missed Wave 1 and had a much stronger wave 2 until 24-36  hours.  Take a look at the qpf trends.  MD areas gained QPF because of wave 1(like the other models had it) but everywhere south continually cut back.

[Paleocene]

This diagonal line SE of DC for the Euro next tues will verify, right?

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I don't think i agree with the Euro part.  Euro was almost entirely the 2nd wave until 1-2 days before  the event.  You may have gotten the same amount of snow from the 2 systems but not because the euro was right.  It completely missed Wave 1 and had a much stronger wave 2 until 24-36  hours.  Take a look at the qpf trends.  MD areas gained QPF because of wave 1(like the other models had it) but everywhere south continually cut back.

The euro has not been good. I can’t find that guys stat graph showing the models from about 4 days out, but it hasn’t been good.

[WxUSAF]

Euro definitely took another step toward a more coastal-dominant solution.  OH Valley primary weaker and low on the coast takes over sooner.  Just a bit too late for us this round verbatim.  Another major ice storm.  

[Cobalt]

That warm nose on the Euro is nuts... warmer up at 700mb than it is down at 925mb. Not an airmass we can get a stone cold beatdown with, but still seems wintry.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro definitely took another step toward a more coastal-dominant solution.  OH Valley primary weaker and low on the coast takes over sooner.  Just a bit too late for us this round verbatim.  Another major ice storm.  

How long before I’m worried about suppression?

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro definitely took another step toward a more coastal-dominant solution.  OH Valley primary weaker and low on the coast takes over sooner.  Just a bit too late for us this round verbatim.  Another major ice storm.  

Another Miller b transfer that I refuse to get my hopes up for. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro definitely took another step toward a more coastal-dominant solution.  OH Valley primary weaker and low on the coast takes over sooner.  Just a bit too late for us this round verbatim.  Another major ice storm.  

So ya think a coastal is still in the range of possibilities for this one? And yes, a better run! At least it didn't cut much this time, lol

[Cobalt]

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Another Miller b transfer that I refuse to get my hopes up for. 

That's more of an A/B hybrid I believe. More southern stream interaction than you'd expect from a Miller B. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Cobalt said:

That's more of an A/B hybrid I believe. More southern stream interaction than you'd expect from a Miller B. 

Yeah I'd think so too...One easy rule about our snow history:

Southern moisture source>northern source, lol