WhiteoutMD Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. The overall temps have warmed over the last several years and on an hourly bases it doesn't get below 32 very often in any given winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I dunno, I'd be so happy to have light snow falling all day with actual winter temps. So sick of non accumulating snow. I'd love what the ICON is advertising. Yeah, but you’re more likely to find more snow on the bridge in Brooklyn it is selling than you will from the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Cutoff lows ftw 2018, the year of the atmospheric river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 how does the GFS not get any precip into the area on Saturday? like how is this possible? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS looks uneventful for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Lower mid Atlantic, northern mid Atlantic, northeast, have done fine compared to climo. So somehow the sea surface temp is only hostile here? And our temp issues are not just a winter phenomenon. Sure, I don't think it's the only hostile issue here. I mentioned the Northern Stream dominance this year, which would help to explain why 40N or so and north are at/above climo. There's also a certain amount of bad luck too, of course, but the warming SST profiles do impact temps year round--the biggest difference for our region vs further north is that we were super marginal to begin with. So Philly can warm from 27 to 29 and be fine; we can't warm from 31 to 33 and be fine in mid-winter. Anyway, all of that is to say that, while we are stuck with global warming as an influence in our increasingly-crappy winters, I am hopeful that there is a specific driver in this winter (the NS dominance) that isn't permanent. But for now, it's hard to feel confident in any of the colder/wetter solutions we've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Another event falling apart? This is shocking. Now let's move on to Tuesday's unraveling. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: how does the GFS not get any precip into the area on Saturday? like how is this possible? and then how does this happen? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Another event falling apart? This is shocking. Now let's move on to Tuesday's unraveling. tuesday is looking like its going from amped up monster HECS icestorm....to a POS wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: That would kill the event I say we never make separate threads that way it snows because thats how it works. Agreed. The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us. If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Ji said: tuesday is looking like its going from amped up monster HECS icestorm....to a POS wave Looking more amped through 90 on the GFS though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: tuesday is looking like its going from amped up monster HECS icestorm....to a POS wave What? it looks like a monster on the GFS at 102. Snow into my area already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Agreed. The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us. If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us. Maybe the models are feeling verklempt! They must talk amongst themselves! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Looking more amped through 90 on the GFS though... Frustating. Look at the surface ( I know i know extended range) 31 in DC with precip approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: What? it looks like a monster on the GFS at 102. Snow into my area already. just saying based on trends. GGEM-Icon and how the euro and GFS are caving to the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 how does this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Frustating. Look at the surface ( I know i know extended range) 31 in DC with precip approaching. what? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Absolutely. Looks like an ice to rain scenario on 12z. They improve some once precip starts but every run temps creep up a little. Still a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: what? These are the temps on approach. They improve during the storm but still are a few degrees warmer than previous runs. I'm a little gun shy about the extended depth of cold due to our previous storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 storm seems run of the mill....quick moving...not very wet and out of here in a flash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON. When is our next beatdown lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When is our next beatdown lol 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 All these storms when we have blocking and now there becoming quick hitters. Where's the log jam? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: All these storms when we have blocking and now there becoming quick hitters. Where's the log jam? Trust me, by Monday's runs there won't be a storm. It'll be a strung out piece of shit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I can’t believe I live in DC now. Like it just hit me over this past week. This is just...rough man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON. CMC really beefed up qpf for Saturday. Kind of surprised to see that to be honest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Can we start a thread for this weekend's ice potential, or is it not even worth it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 At some point, you would think we quit hanging on every model run and acknowledge the seasonal trends, which are what they are. We still have a lot to be thankful for, considering if you told me preseason we would survive all of met winter without a bona fide torch period, I would have thought you were crazy. This now appears to be pretty likely. That is pretty unusual here even in our most prolific seasons. Struggling to recall the last time this really occured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 But we're also probably going to go two whole winters without a single sub-freezing high at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts