Amped Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 That didn't end well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Next frame is garbage. That H is hauling ass outta there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: 20F in DC during that panel 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: 20F in DC during that panel and 36 in the next and 48 after. That would be an impressive 12 hours to go from 20 to 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z runs today were kind of a debacle. Every storm, from tomorrow thru next week is becoming unglued. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: and 36 in the next lol. somehow i don't buy that overall it looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Arctic air looks muted. Our coldest day now just looks like a fairly typical cold day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z runs today were kind of a debacle. Every storm, from tomorrow thru next week is becoming unglued. Just now, DCTeacherman said: Arctic air looks muted. Our coldest day now just looks like a fairly typical cold day. as Ji would say, we can't buy a favorable trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Arctic air looks muted. Our coldest day now just looks like a fairly typical cold day. my guess is that because we have storm after storm lining up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: euro looks like a thump is coming at 168 but will most likely change to mix based on the high NOTHING has ended up as far north as it looked at 150-200 hours out this winter...so I am fine with that look right now. Remember the storm that might miss us mostly to the south this week was mostly an ice storm a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Next frame is garbage. That H is hauling ass outta there. so much for the H locking into place during -NAO. Where is our 50/50 low? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 That day 7 storm starts with temps in the northern Shenandoah Valley in the mid-teens. Never gets to freezing for the duration with 1.00"+ QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: NOTHING has ended up as far north as it looked at 150-200 hours out this winter...so I am fine with that look right now. Remember the storm that might miss us mostly to the south this week was mostly an ice storm a few days ago. We may need to start hoping things start north of us so after the eventual south trend we are in good shape lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Arctic air looks muted. Our coldest day now just looks like a fairly typical cold day. GFS and Euro swapped places for Monday lol. But yeah the core of the cold is definitely sticking to our west. Handling of TPV is going to cause some chaos for sure, but still seems like the stage is set for multiple frozen events coupled with at least some cold, even if not arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: That day 7 storm starts with temps in the northern Shenandoah Valley in the mid-teens. Never gets to freezing for the duration with 1.00"+ QPF. Was just going to post this. Major ice storm for areas N+W of DC Edit - as is a crippling ice storm for the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Arctic air looks muted. Our coldest day now just looks like a fairly typical cold day. do you want arctic air or snow? In this pattern the storms will be riding the boundary so you can't really get both. If we end up deep into the arctic air it will be dry. We want to be along the cold boundary not deep into it. Granted...the fail scenario is if somehow these waves all continue to miss us north or south...that would be epic someone in here did something awful to offend the snow gods kind of stuff...but still the solution to our problems is not to see the arctic air settle in over top of us if we want to get storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: do you want arctic air or snow? In this pattern the storms will be riding the boundary so you can't really get both. If we end up deep into the arctic air it will be dry. We want to be along the cold boundary not deep into it. Granted...the fail scenario is if somehow these waves all continue to miss us north or south...that would be epic someone in here did something awful to offend the snow gods kind of stuff...but still the solution to our problems is not to see the arctic air settle in over top of us if we want to get storms. I'm not particularly invested in the arctic, just noting the output on the Euro. If I had to choose though I'd say both hahaha. Gimme a big storm followed by arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, WVclimo said: That day 7 storm starts with temps in the northern Shenandoah Valley in the mid-teens. Never gets to freezing for the duration with 1.00"+ QPF. how the heck is this not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: so much for the H locking into place during -NAO. Where is our 50/50 low? Our window is as the TPV slides across to our north. But we need the western trough to cut UNDER it. Instead the Euro has it hang out and wait for the TPV to exit then it cuts. Unfortunately if the western trough doesn't kick east and hangs out until after the TPV exits there is a gap there for it to amplify to our west and cut before the blocking pattern reloads. It's way too far out though to worry about yet. There will be a lot of cold in the way and my gut says it adjusts south because of that. This is the type of setup we dont need PERFECT to get a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NOTHING has ended up as far north as it looked at 150-200 hours out this winter...so I am fine with that look right now. Remember the storm that might miss us mostly to the south this week was mostly an ice storm a few days ago. I was just going to say this. We've had modeled cutters from 10 days out that have become harmless waves that end up flitting off the NC coast. And there's this week's storm, as you mentioned - modeled as a crippling ice storm that is washing out as we get closer. No global model - no matter how good - is going to nail a medium-range threat (let alone a long-range one) this season. We should all have accepted that by now given the past as precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: how the heck is this not snow 700mb is warmer than 850. Must be a lot of warmth between 750-800mb with those ripping SW winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 @stormtracker Yea except this is still our mean snowfall on the GEFS which is actually a slight improvement over the last run. I still think it would take some monumental bad luck to not score at least one flush hit from one of these waves. There are going to be like 5 or 6 (maybe more) opportunities in the next 2-3 weeks. But yea...the luck near DC and Baltimore has been so bad lately I totally get the frustration. I really hope this first wave holds...and gets a flush hit for DC/Baltimore so we can relax some and enjoy the pattern once the ice is broken. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Was just going to post this. Major ice storm for areas N+W of DC Edit - as is a crippling ice storm for the 81 corridor. You should see the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 42 minutes ago, WVclimo said: That day 7 storm starts with temps in the northern Shenandoah Valley in the mid-teens. Never gets to freezing for the duration with 1.00"+ QPF. Not sure that’s good news lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 uh oh... model trend -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker Yea except this is still our mean snowfall on the GEFS which is actually a slight improvement over the last run. I still think it would take some monumental bad luck to not score at least one flush hit from one of these waves. There are going to be like 5 or 6 (maybe more) opportunities in the next 2-3 weeks. But yea...the luck near DC and Baltimore has been so bad lately I totally get the frustration. I really hope this first wave holds...and gets a flush hit for DC/Baltimore so we can relax some and enjoy the pattern once the ice is broken. I agree. Looking at the main models, there just seems to be a plethora of opportunities. Better to score early, then the rest is gravy, and who doesn't like gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure that’s good news lol I had ten straight hours of freezing rain with temps in the teens in College Park, MD on 1/17/1994. Still one of the wildest weather anomalies I have ever experienced. Everything was caked in ice, both vertical and horizontal surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker Yea except this is still our mean snowfall on the GEFS which is actually a slight improvement over the last run. I still think it would take some monumental bad luck to not score at least one flush hit from one of these waves. There are going to be like 5 or 6 (maybe more) opportunities in the next 2-3 weeks. But yea...the luck near DC and Baltimore has been so bad lately I totally get the frustration. I really hope this first wave holds...and gets a flush hit for DC/Baltimore so we can relax some and enjoy the pattern once the ice is broken. You new here? 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This wasn't the look I thought we were going to. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, frd said: This wasn't the look I thought we were going to. That’s pretty temporary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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