Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 34 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS setting up something big in about a week? Nice SS vort getting ready to eject out the the SW. Gfs had alot of suspicious looks starting Sunday The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, psurulz said: Going to need someone to translate Anthony, but it sounds like that's a good thing for prolonged cold in the east. I thought it was perfectly clear. Weekly miller A's of increasing intensity until the Mar 93 redux triple phaser. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too. Or... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too. One TPV to rule them all, One TPV to find them,One TPV to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro close to something at 114... directly on the heels of this week's event. Edit: Digital snow confirmed at 120, Saturday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro also moving closer to big event on the 16th. Best panel 00Z vs 12Z shows shift South and East in snow accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro just misses with the weenie fantasy KU storm day 8 extrapolated from the ICON and Navegem. In pretty good agreement with the CMC though. Just need the PV to linger back a little longer and the southern stream a bit less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro just misses with the weenie fantasy KU storm day 8 extrapolated from the ICON and Navegem. In pretty good agreement with the CMC though. Just need the PV to linger back a little longer and the southern stream a bit less amped. True... but a monster ice storm shows up instead for parts of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 There are a good amount (17/50 by my count) of really silly/weenie EPS individ members tonight on snow totals through 360 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 There are a good amount (17/50 by my count) of really silly/weenie EPS individ members tonight on snow totals through 360 hoursAnd 33/50 bad ones. Is that what you are saying? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 27 minutes ago, yoda said: There are a good amount (17/50 by my count) of really silly/weenie EPS individ members tonight on snow totals through 360 hours And 33/50 bad ones. Is that what you are saying? No lol... there are like 17 that have DCA near 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Lets all take a moment... read this... and bask in all its glory lol Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 DCZ001-VAZ054-091200- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 348 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds around 5 mph. .TODAY...A chance of freezing rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs around 50. South winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows around 30. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .THURSDAY...Snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .FRIDAY...Snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 80 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of freezing rain and snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of freezing rain and snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 40 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Morning AFD from LWX for Sunday and beyond .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some lingering wintry precipitation is possible into the first half of Friday. Arctic high pressure remains locked in, with cooler than average temperatures expected to continue. As the aforementioned low departs, may even see a few breaks of sun by Friday afternoon. Highs only reach the mid 30s though. Strong, arctic high pressure remains locked into the region through the weekend. A cold day and dreary day expected Saturday, as we remain under a wedge of cold air. A weak piece of southern stream energy will move out of the Gulf of Mexico and then off the Carolina coast. Not a lot of moisture makes it into our region with this, but could be just enough to get some light wintry precipitation. A stronger piece of upper-level energy swings out of the southwest and into the Gulf late Saturday night, then through the southeast and up the Mid-Atlantic coast through Sunday night. With arctic high pressure still locked in, wintry precipitation is once again possible Sunday. Warm advection aloft may lead to this falling in the form of mostly freezing rain. May be hard to get all snow, or any snow, out of this event. Still several days out at this point, so this could change. But this has the potential to be a significant icing event for portions of the area. Behind that, arctic high pressure remains locked in on Monday, with perhaps the coldest day in the forecast period, where highs only reach the upper 20s to low 30s across the region. Looking at the more extended forecast, yet another winter storm could be looming by Tuesday/Wednesday, so keep an eye on the forecast for more updates. But if this arctic high remains locked in, it is certainly not out of the question to see many shots at some wintry precipitation until it budges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The number of winter weather events all of a sudden reminds me of 2013-2015. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yeah, blocking looks to continue, but so far in terms of snowfall, it has done very poorly in delivering the goods to certain areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Gfs takes the weekend thing and cuts to Cincinnati. Pretty epic pattern for everywhere but here imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Gfs takes the weekend thing and cuts to Cincinnati. Pretty epic pattern for everywhere but here imo. GEFS agrees. Worse of winter out West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Gfs takes the weekend thing and cuts to Cincinnati. Pretty epic pattern for everywhere but here imo. The 6z gfs run had at least five separate (mostly snowy threats). We don’t live in Whistler, BC or even Davis, wv for that matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS has had plenty of cutters in the medium range this year that ended up not being that. Think we will see changes if not to the path of the storm then with the cold east of the mountains turning it into a significant winter event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS has had plenty of cutters in the medium range this year that ended up not being that. Think we will see changes if not to the path of the storm then with the cold east of the mountains turning it into a significant winter event. I know I will be keeping a close look at the movement of the TPV , as HM mentioned this yesterday. The brunt of the arctic cold is out West but changes will most likely occur. Again, I am not searching for record breaking cold here, which may simply bring dry, but a cold running event that punches a little gusto and provides better coverage. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Wow, to that move up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 BTW how is the Arctic outbreak looking? I haven’t actually looked. I suspect that the cold air is having a hard time moving south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: BTW how is the Arctic outbreak looking? I haven’t actually looked. I suspect that the cold air is having a hard time moving south and east? Interesting, even though the talk focuses on areas South of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, frd said: Wow, to that move up ! Rubber band theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON has 0.3"-0.5" QPF fall this weekend with temps in the low 20s.. awaiting surface panels to see if it's an icy mess or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: ICON has 0.3"-0.5" QPF fall this weekend with temps in the low 20s.. awaiting surface panels to see if it's an icy mess or not. Also has a hit Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON has over an Inch of precip for next Tuesday with temps in the low 20's but not seeing an up tick on the snow maps. Ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: ICON has over an Inch of precip for next Tuesday with temps in the low 20's but not seeing an up tick on the snow maps. Ice storm. For a model that has no visual indication of precip other than snow or rain, it really wants us to get a mixed bag lol. Although its run for Saturday has more merit, since other guidance has a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: For a model that has no visual indication of precip other than snow or rain, it really wants us to get a mixed bag lol. Although its run for Saturday has more merit, since other guidance has a similar solution. Just going by the surface, this is all frozen EZF north for the run. And a lot of it is Sub 28 degrees. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON has over an Inch of precip for next Tuesday with temps in the low 20's but not seeing an up tick on the snow maps. Ice storm. The primary hangs on too long. Just from the track I would think maybe some snow to mix north of 70 with mostly ice south of 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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