MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 50th percentile Snowfall through 00z Saturday on 15z NBM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 At least the weaker flow keeps the 850's on the UKIE. It looks like .3-.5 through the area all snow to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 UKMET looks worse for wave 1 but it might be better for the follow up wave Friday...looks like a lot more energy left behind. Wave 1 is still a nice little snow but it cut back on qpf a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Ji said: ugh--here comes the model chaos right before game time you start the thread 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 UK looks nice to me, 6 inches and cold temps for DC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8". Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: you start the thread I think you should do the honors. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UK is south and a lot weaker/dryer with the wave so far out to 60 “A lot” might be a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 UK looks a lot colder for the weekend threat in the mid levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 UK weekend wave is a general 1-3" snowfall across the area. Pretty weak wave but colder then other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: “A lot” might be a stretch I mean it cut my qpf by about 50% with wave 1 so...that seems like a lot to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8". Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area. When are you posting about the ultimate fail scenario where wave 1 is dry and wave 2 stays south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I think you should do the honors. It's been a while. Thanks, but I'm a storm killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8". Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area. When are you posting about the ultimate fail scenario where wave 1 is dry and wave 2 stays south You just did it for me. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 UK is a foot plus through the weekend for NW of the cities. This QPF is almost all snow this run. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Thanks, but I'm a storm killer. Even in wv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Lazy bums, the whole lot of you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Thanks, but I'm a storm killer. As is almost everyone who has started a thread here since January 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Thanks, but I'm a storm killer. Even in wv? You can take the kid out of DCA Terminal A.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I mean it cut my qpf by about 50% with wave 1 so...that seems like a lot to me Yes, I know where you were looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ok, keep this thread now for the ~Sunday-Monday Feb 14-15 threat window. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8". Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area. When are you posting about the ultimate fail scenario where wave 1 is dry and wave 2 stays south He pretty much just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I started a few decent threads in my time that gave us accumulating snow as well. Proud to say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: I started a few decent threads in my time that gave us accumulating snow as well. Proud to say lol You’re too late on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK is a foot plus through the weekend for NW of the cities. This QPF is almost all snow this run. It’s 8–10 NW of 95 from all 3 waves. There are some snizzle and light mix periods in there that added up tack on an extra .1-.2 qpf that wouldn’t be accumulating snow. But I am not arguing it wasn’t a good run. I was just describing it verbatim. Ji can let you know how it sucks! Btw the weekend wave is close. DC is on the edge of a bigger snow. The wave gets it’s act together just a bit too late. Yea I know sounds familiar but one of these will work out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I am loving all the Freezing Rain discussions! It takes me back to my undergrad research project and a journal article that I found particularly helpful at that time in understanding the subject much better. No analysis of the current setup here - just simply putting this out there for others to read if they have time. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/19/2/1520-0434_2004_019_0377_aaofrf_2_0_co_2.xml 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8". Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area. Models seem to be all disagreeing on the progression of the ULL and any undercutting energy. We’re going to see a lot of different scenarios in the medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 There are some mega wet gefs solutions for the weekend. That’s all I know. Surprised maps haven’t flown yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There are some mega wet gefs solutions for the weekend. That’s all I know. Surprised maps haven’t flown yet Is it mega wet only in Sykesville?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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