MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: I approve. Which one was this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 ICON actually moved a little south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is 100% true if we are talking about HECS level snowstorms. But frankly it's only in the last 20 years they have become common enough to even be a "thing" that we chase. When I first started this it was KU or MECS level events that were the BIG DOGS. HECS or 20" plus type storms were so rare it wasn't even worth a thought. Then they started happening every few years and so it became a thing. But it is really only a thing under one VERY specific pattern, a Moderate or stronger Nino with a -NAO. 6 of the last 7 HECS storms fall under that category with the one exception being 1996. Yes I know technically the NAO was neutral in the 2003 storm but there was a massive north atlantic vortex that simulated the exact same thing as a -NAO so essentially it was a de facto same pattern. Point is a moderate to strong nino with blocking is the only situation that makes a widespread 20" type storm likely in the mid atlantic. But if we lower the bar to a KU or MECS level event I don't think the nina really affects our chances much at all so long as we have blocking. If we look at Nina's in the last 30 years that featured significant blocking periods we got a MECS/KU level storm in 96, 2000, 2006, 2011 and March 2018 would have DEFINITELY been at least a MECS maybe HECS level storm if it hadn't been March 21 and the blocking had set in earlier that winter. I also don't think the close miss in 2011 had anything to do with the nina. There was a nice STJ feed and that was a miller A, we just got really unlucky with a vort and that can happen in a nino also...remember December 2018! That was just bad luck. We almost had another HECS nina event imo. The only Nina winter with significant blocking that failed to produce a MECS event here was 2001 which is historic for its fail's. I think if we run the table with blocking we should expect at least one flush hit of a MECS level and if we don't get one I do think that counts as a fail (on the level of 2001) regardless of the nina status. Yeah I guess it comes down to how one defines "big storm". I think it is dumb to state that winter would be a fail or disappointment if it doesn't meet what ever that criteria is, if it manages to exceed climo snowfall say with multiple light/ moderate events. To each their own though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: I approve. Which one was this? March 9 1999... I believe it was a bit of a surprise we got so much? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: I approve. Which one was this? 3-9-99. Awesome surprise storm! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nobody touched on the 12Z HRRR. But it appears to be more Euro like through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Damnit I thought that was a map forecast for this event 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, yoda said: March 9 1999... I believe it was a bit of a surprise we got so much? Prior to my time in town. Just now, clskinsfan said: Nobody touched on the 12Z HRRR. But it appears to be more Euro like through 48. The surprising thing about the 12z HRRR was the precip breaking out so early. But, the weighting on this one is still low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Surely nobody expects the gfs to be good, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, chris21 said: 12z Icon is a hit region wide wed-thurs for what it’s worth. 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON actually moved a little south This is good yes? Better than 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 RGEM has the R/S boundary near DC for the first wave on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gotta agree with high risk. Very fun shy after the last two debacles. It’s annoying that the NAM is different. Yes even if it’s after it’s supposed 48 hour wheelhouse. But at the same time if I’m gonna pick who I’d rather have in my corner, euro vs NAM. Well... Hopefully all other guidance holds and NAM is gonna play catch-up The NAM was a pile of dump even within 24hrs of the storm this weekend. I'll take the NAM being off on it's own as a good thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: This is good yes? Better than 06z? For some people it is! 12z: 06z: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, yoda said: March 9 1999... I believe it was a bit of a surprise we got so much? Yes, definite over-performer! Would take a redo in an instant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I’m not mistaken the old ETA only tan to 48 hours? Yes. And it's brother, the ol' NGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: For some people it is! 12z: 06z: Not very many people. You guys dumbfound me with reading model runs sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I approve. Which one was this? That looks like the wave in March 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Damnit I thought that was a map forecast for this event Lmao, those graphics are ancient man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: RGEM has the R/S boundary near DC for the first wave on Wednesday. Looks like the rain snow line is in st Mary’s county, but much colder after that for the follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: Not very many people. You guys dumbfound me with reading model runs sometimes. Looks better for southern Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not sure who got my hopes up that the Icon looked better, but 12z looks markedly worse for most of the forum. Weaker overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro and Icon with a move south but still snow into the region, NAM is north, RGEM sorta dead center...certainly the GFS will be north if I had to guess. I ain't mad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: Looks better for southern Maryland I said few, small portions of the sub like parts of nova and smd, but also reductions in QPF and totals across the board from last run. It’ll do for a hold if you want the NAM to be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I guess it comes down to how one defines "big storm". I think it is dumb to state that winter would be a fail or disappointment if it doesn't meet what ever that criteria is, if it manages to exceed climo snowfall say with multiple light/ moderate events. To each their own though. I agree with that...I was simply commenting on the probabilities of a "big" snowstorm regarding the pattern. People can "feel" however they want about the snow that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I think we can all assume that the GFS is going to be less than optimal when it gets out to the time period we're waiting for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Not very many people. You guys dumbfound me with reading model runs sometimes. It's all about their backyard. If I-81 can cash in again, they will happily see everyone else burn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Not only is then icon solid, better setup already showing for something to run the gauntlet from the SE down the line. Stable confluence is such a pretty and welcome sight man. Takes some of the freakout potential away. Which is always in short supply.... heh No such thing Bob, no such thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The RGEM is pretty paltry with total qpf. Only .3-.4 through the area through 0z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 ICON with a big ice storm over the weekend to turn our snow into a glacier. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It's all about their backyard. If I-81 can cash in again, they will happily see everyone else burn. Almost everybody here is guilty of posting that a run looks better for everyone when it's really only better for their backyard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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