CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I remembered years ago in the fall of an impending Nina (I think it was 2016-17) I did some seasonal research and was shocked to find that what makes a Nina so terrible isn’t that it mutes an NAO. It’s that we suck monkey nuts and get NO snow unless we get a -NAO and since those are exceedingly rare since the 80s... So I went back and found my files and updated them with the last few years. These are the actual splits for every -NAO month since 1990 at BWI. I hate using DCA. It’s depressing and I do think BWI is more representative of most in the 95 corridor. December La Niña -NAO avg snow 2.2” 17% above avg Non Nina -NAO Avg snow 6.1. 40% above avg so yes in December a Nina mutes the NAO. So this years challenged start despite a -NAO in hindsight should have been expected but get a load of this... January Nina -NAO avg 15.9” 67% above avg Non Nina -NAO AVG 5.6” 50% above avg February nina -NAO avg 16.1” 100% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 11.5” 50% above avg March nina -NAO avg 3.6” 50% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 1.0” 25% above avg So in January to March our mean snowfall with a -NAO is actually HIGHER in a Nina then non Nina months and our chances of having an above avg snowfall month is higher in a -NAO Nina. The reason Nina’s suck is actually because a -NAO is pretty rare and they are horrid without one. When I did my warning event snowfall study I don’t think there was a single Nina one in the whole 70 year study without a -NAO! We simply do not snow much without a -NAO in a Nina. But the truth is a -NAO seems to have the same effect, and maybe even better, in a Nina as in other enso states. All good info and we have discussed this before, but the OP said something to the effect that it would be depressing or a fail if we didn't get a big storm with the persistent blocking we have had this winter. Sure a -AO/NAO favors more snow than average regardless of ENSO state, that should be evident to every weenie here by now lol, but in my replies to that post I simply stated that it is more likely to come in multiple "smaller" events rather than a KU for the MA in a Nina. I just find the "bar setting" thing to be a little silly, especially given the climo for much of this region tends to be hostile for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 morning AFD from LWX .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tranquil conditions Tue night as high pressure builds again. Not as cold as this morning with thick clouds overhead. Overrunning wintry precip is expected to break out across the region Wed in response to a shortwave-trough and increasing upper level divergence from an approaching right entrance jet streak dynamics. This area of organized precip is expected to expand east Wed night into Thu. It should be mostly snow, but may start as rain in the south Wed afternoon before changing to snow everywhere Wed night as freezing levels drop. Several inches of snow accumulation appear likely Wed night with the event continuing into Fri morning with some transition to mixed precip across southern areas Thursday. Refer to long term section below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in along the eastern slopes of the Appalachains. Meanwhile, low pressure will be sliding by to our south. Wintry weather is expected to continue into Thursday. Still some uncertainty in regards to precipitation type for the duration of the event. Guidance overnight, which now includes the NAM, have started to trend cooler aloft, leading to a snowier solution across the region, especially the northern half. Do expect some mixing of sleet, snow, and freezing rain to occur across the southern half of the CWA. Will be tough, as usual, to pin point that mixing line at this point. This system continues into Friday morning as well, which will make this a fairly long-duration event. For the weekend, the pattern remains quite unsettled. An even colder arctic air mass will become wedged into the region Saturday, setting the stage for yet another winter weather event. First part of the day could be dry, though there is some spread there, so will maintain some chance POPs during the day. The bigger event comes late Saturday night into Sunday. Details are still fuzzy concerning temperatures aloft, thus not really sure of precip types at this point, but am growing increasingly confident in another winter storm. At this point, would certainly favor our northwestern zones, given climatology. However, plenty of time for things to change, so will continue to monitor in the coming days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WB 6Z GFS 1am Th, tick cooler than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WB 6 am Th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: morning AFD from LWX And here is the AM AFD from Mount Holly- As the languishing midlevel vortex remains nearly stationary in south-central Canada, fast quasi-zonal flow will remain across the U.S. with periodic low-amplitude perturbations zipping eastward. Models have trended in two distinct ways the past 24 hours. First, the northern-stream vort max amplifying the late- week system for our area is noticeably weaker compared to simulations yesterday. Second, the progression of the midlevel Canada low allows for more troughing in eastern Canada. The result has been for a reduction in strength (suppression) of the system affecting the area Wednesday through Friday, and a steadily colder solution as well. Deterministic guidance exhibits, to varying degrees, an extended period of wintry weather late this week. The gist of the first portion of the event seems agreeable. Warm-advection precipitation will spread rapidly eastward to the northern Mid- Atlantic by Wednesday night, promoting a round of snow for the area as cold air advecting from the retreating surface high keeps surface temperatures below freezing for much of the area. The weaker nature of the upper-level shortwave trough suggests the strength and advance of the warm nose will be on the weak side, certainly weaker than that predicted by the models yesterday. A lengthy period of light snow is likely in this regime then for much of our area, with the main questions being how far south the potential for snow exists.. A second wave looks to move through the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday, which may bring a second round of wintry precipitation to the area. Questions abound regarding this potential, though, with the GFS quite suppressed (keeping most precipitation to our south) versus the more amplified ECMWF. The CMC seems more agreeable with the ECMWF, and the GFS fast-bias may be playing a role in its equatorward shift. However, in either scenario, any precipitation for the area would increasingly favor snow. Thus, felt confident moving precipitation types in that direction and lowering temperatures markedly in the Thursday through Friday time frame. The bottom line for the Wednesday through Friday period is that one or more periods of wintry weather seem likely, with meaningful impacts possible for much of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6Z WB 10 pm Th, lull during the day Th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WB 6Z GFS thru Friday am, 6 inch snow line ticked south 30 miles or so this run compared to 0Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Icon being somewhat similar to the euro is a great sign. Model is seriously underrated would love to see verification stats. ATM I would rather be in N VA and Md compared to me up in Philly for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure we'll get full agreement on being on the good side for bit. One or more models will likely irritate everyone every 6 hours. Should be a blast in here as time ticks and nerves twitch. Bumping this. I will take the euro and the trends and invite people not to freak out over the occasional hiccup . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 25 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Icon being somewhat similar to the euro is a great sign. Model is seriously underrated would love to see verification stats. ATM I would rather be in N VA and Md compared to me up in Philly for this one. I remember those famous words recently........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Bumping this. I will take the euro and the trends and invite people not to freak out over the occasional hiccup . Only person freaking out is the usual ONE whiner. Everything looks excellent so far. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6z euro farther south. It also looks like a bigger hit was on deck for Friday. More stream interaction 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS thru Friday am, 6 inch snow line ticked south 30 miles or so this run compared to 0Z. Nice trends overnight into this morning. Colder scenario gaining more traction. I like this too Also notice snow cover over the mid center of country expanding South, and fringes around the great Lakes starting to freeze over . Arctic press evolving towards mid month extremes. This is yet again the coldest 10 day mean look yet. Are you kidding me a - 9.4 mean Sources regions getting colder and colder and areas Northeast of the Great Lakes getting colder as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6z euro farther south. It also looks like a bigger hit was on deck for Friday. More stream interactionHow much more south can we afford? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 6z euro farther south. It also looks like a bigger hit was on deck for Friday. More stream interaction Its already out? WB is at 30 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Its already out? WB is at 30 lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Thanks... guess we shall see what EPS says about the Friday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Also here is the last frame. There is decent moisture and more NS interaction at the end here so there would have been more If run extended imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Only person freaking out is the usual ONE whiner. Everything looks excellent so far. Well the 6z nam didn't give us any precipitation lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Its already out? WB is at 30 lol WB sucks even worse than it used to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Also here is the last frame. There is decent moisture and more NS interaction at the end here so there would have been more If run extended imo tbh... kinda looks like 06z RGEM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yes it can stop going south now smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 You can see the enhanced interaction here post Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: tbh... kinda looks like 06z RGEM at 84 You gotta like how far south the 850 and surface freezing lines are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yes it can stop going south now smh I can't wait to see the animated gif showing the troubling trends of this going south. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I can't wait to see the animated gif showing the troubling trends of this going south.We're one tick from being in the gray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 16 hours ago, JakkelWx said: We have a potentially epic two week period coming up starting in just a few days Yup. I've been pleasantly surprised with this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I can't wait to see the animated gif showing the troubling trends of this going south. We're one tick from being in the gray 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I can't wait to see the animated gif showing the troubling trends of this going south. You prefer it over the dissertations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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