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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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We need to get some cold air. Is it just me but it seems over the last 3-4 years we have a hard time reaching 32 or below. It would be interesting to see how manny hours a winter season say DC has been below 32. I remember growing up I need a winter coat. I never were one now just a light shell or a sweat shirts is all one needs anymore. Yesterday I was out picking up sticks and was like it so warm.


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Am I wrong to not really even take anything remotely seriously from the models for next week until tomorrow at the earliest? It just seems like they don't have a handle on things right now from beyond 3 days. 

The way the models flipped from no storm at all to one riding the coast 3 days prior to this one, it has me skeptical they don't have a solid grasp on our current pattern. Maybe I'm being too skeptical. 

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  On 2/7/2021 at 1:09 PM, Wonderdog said:

Looks like the boundary line of cold and warm will be very interesting starting mid-week for the next two weeks. This period of time has great "potential". Hopefully BristowWx won't be breaking out the flip flops anytime soon. 

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It’s best to have them ready at all times brother.

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  On 2/7/2021 at 1:09 PM, Wonderdog said:

Looks like the boundary line of cold and warm will be very interesting starting mid-week for the next two weeks. This period of time has great "potential". Hopefully BristowWx won't be breaking out the flip flops anytime soon. 

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I love gradient overunning snows in Feb!! One of my faves for heavy thumps. Of course I only enjoy being on the colder side of the gradient. 

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  On 2/7/2021 at 11:15 AM, dailylurker said:

What's up with the CMC? It says what cold spell? Looks like it keeps the cold well to the west as we roast.

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Go with the middle. Been working well this year. Super deep cold and relatively fat se ridges have yet to verify from mid/lr. Personally, the setup over the next 7 days looks productive and messy. I expect a fair amount of 4 different ptypes this week. That's all I can say without claiming to know things I really dont know

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  On 2/7/2021 at 2:18 PM, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS looking good....most of this snow mean is Th-Fri...nice tick south.

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As you are aware, trends might be suggesting colder and more snow, versus ice. Here is another way to look at it in this animation. Focus on our area,  not so much Virginia and NC in the time loop.  Also,  many disturbances in the flow as well. 

  

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  On 2/7/2021 at 2:41 PM, frd said:

 

As you are aware, trends might be suggesting colder and more snow, versus ice. Here is another way to look at it in this animation. Focus on our area,  not so much Virginia and NC in the time loop.  Also,  many disturbances in the flow as well. 

  

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Thats the 12z GEFS from Friday. Not disputing your point though. 

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This is just crazy.

First the almost - 6 SD dive in a few days, and even more intriguing is the recent reversal - from the AO going positive in a couple weeks,  instead possibly going back down the third week of February. Continued blocking and colder scenarios in a back drop of expanding snow North America cover.   

 

2010300671_ao.sprd2(8).thumb.gif.68434755bf1ae2d1974fb0af735f8262.gif 

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  On 2/7/2021 at 2:58 PM, frd said:

This is just crazy.

First the almost - 6 SD dive in a few days, and even more intriguing is the recent reversal - from the AO going positive in a couple weeks,  instead possibly going back down the third week of February. Continued blocking and colder scenarios in a back drop of expanding snow North America cover.   

 

2010300671_ao.sprd2(8).thumb.gif.68434755bf1ae2d1974fb0af735f8262.gif 

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Look at the 10&14 day verification graphs. Long range has been busting too high since mid jan. Good clue to hedge thoughts against a sudden reversal or flip positive. It certainly could happen but wont consider it until it's happening d7 or less. D7 verification has been pretty strong. 

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  On 2/7/2021 at 2:58 PM, frd said:

This is just crazy.

First the almost - 6 SD dive in a few days, and even more intriguing is the recent reversal - from the AO going positive in a couple weeks,  instead possibly going back down the third week of February. Continued blocking and colder scenarios in a back drop of expanding snow North America cover.   

 

2010300671_ao.sprd2(8).thumb.gif.68434755bf1ae2d1974fb0af735f8262.gif 

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That sharp rise may be the trigger for our big event.

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This is the coldest version yet again.  Colder by mean and colder by extent as well. 

Been many a years since I have witnessed this. I feel this raises the bar on colder storms in our area eventually.  

Also the NPO index continues to go towards a negative 3 SD near Feb 11 th.

Looking for artic cold to maximize in our area after the 15 th.   

Also when seeing the progression of the GFS eddy heat flux it appears there could be increased odds of a mid Atlantic Snowstorm in the 15 th to the 18 th.      

 tenday.gif

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