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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Exactly. You don’t want the TPV over eastern Ontario or Quebec unless you want very cold and dry. And that is arctic air ahead of whatever storm forms. CAD is going to be supercharged. At this point, it’s just clear that there could be a high impact  and long duration winter wx event late next week.

I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the  PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi. 

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12 minutes ago, Amped said:

Not liking this trend, models consistently underdoing the SE ridge in Day 5-10 timeframe.    Best we can hope for is a thump, then a lot of rain.   

bzf8Cd0.gif

It’s not really about undergoing the SE ridge, it’s about where it dumps the big ULL. If you dump it was of lakes and far enough south you get an icon solution. More west like euro it’s maybe some front end to ice, drizzle. The ridge just responds to the placement of that feature. 

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5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

It’s not really about undergoing the SE ridge, it’s about where it dumps the big ULL. If you dump it was of lakes and far enough south you get an icon solution. More west like euro it’s maybe some front end to ice, drizzle. The ridge just responds to the placement of that feature. 

The SE ridge effect where the ULL consolidates.

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8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the  PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi. 

How many days to resolve the reconsolidation? Any idea ? 

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18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the  PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi. 

The GEFS looks a lot better in that regard, in fact it improved compared to 6z. Hoping Euro jumped to one extreme and that the EPS isn't directly in that camp, but even with it's attempts to pump up a massive ridge the output was still pretty wild. Last time we were in a overrunning scenario like this I recall a lot of concern of energy being dumped into the western US but we ended up with suppression depression, doesn't seem like this will go that way though. 

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The GEFS looks a lot better in that regard, in fact it improved compared to 6z. Hoping Euro jumped to one extreme and that the EPS isn't directly in that camp, but even with it's attempts to pump up a massive ridge the output was still pretty wild. Last time we were in a overrunning scenario like this I recall a lot of concern of energy being dumped into the western US but we ended up with suppression depression, doesn't seem like this will go that way though. 

You get the most improved poster award. You're getting good!

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14 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So I have no context when it comes to ice storms. If something like that map verified verbatim, what would the impacts be?

Crippling. If temps are in the mid-20s and we get steady light rain, it would be crippling. God forbid it would be even a little windy to boot.

True ice storms are very rare. The Nashville one mentioned in 1994 was one such - that stretched all the way back along I-40 to Oklahoma if memory serves.  Anyone who cares at all about trees, power, and the like should not want to see a true ice storm. 

Pics from Nashville in 1994:

https://www.tennessean.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2015/02/16/nashville-then-ice-storm-of-1994/23505561/

Here's a report from Memphis from the great southern ice storm of 1994...

https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/2019/02/11/breakdown-looking-back-ice-storm-feb/#:~:text=MEMPHIS%2C TN (WMC) -,history occurred%3A Ice Storm 94.&text=That swath of moisture brought,as rain early Wednesday morning.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So I have no context when it comes to ice storms. If something like that map verified verbatim, what would the impacts be?

The Sperry Piltz Ice Accretion Index leverages wind and ice accretion to measure impacts. I'm going to cut the forecasted amount in half, which would mean an Ice Damage Index of at least a 1. However, a year or two ago we had this ice event in upper Montgomery County where we got between 0.3" and 0.5" ice with almost no wind and it was impressive. A lot of trees snapping in two, event the hardwoods, which caused big problems to the power grid. Some places were out for 3 days and that was for the Allegheny Power service area which does a good job at tree trimming. Something like what's being advertised there would be probably a 2 or 3.

DUBAVdMWkAAVJEl.jpg

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