WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 How about no storm thread? It isn’t needed. This one will do just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, H2O said: PSU won't be fringed? I’m not worried about PSU. Me on the other hand ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How about no storm thread? It isn’t needed. This one will do just fine. Once inside 3 days then it technically doesn't fit the title of the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How about no storm thread? It isn’t needed. This one will do just fine. Pretty soon next Friday's threat will move into here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Once inside 3 days then it technically doesn't fit the title of the thread Haha ... well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 others can elaborate better, but most of the models i see have the jet streak right overhead, but the differences seem to be at 500. gfs/para has a stronger vort lifting through the tn valley/southeast compared to ukmet/cmc. either way, looks like an ideal low track (could be a little further nw), but rates would certainly help since it'll be a daytime system/borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, mappy said: now you've gone and jinx it. we can bust out ron paul until we knows its actually happening. Correct. I'm going to reverse jinx it now 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Correct. I'm going to reverse jinx it now much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 UK is NW if it’s 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 UKIE with a big jump but not all the way there. 12z 00z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Correct. I'm going to reverse jinx it now These typical superstitions aren’t working, let’s throw them out the window. They are working about as good as the euro is predicting snow this year. Let’s create a storm thread now! Let’s Rand Paul gif the sh!t out of this storm until we get 3-6” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Rather large move NW by the 12z UKIE as well... doesn't get much precip into the LWX CWA... but the trend is clear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If this amps at all it’s coming more nw. There’s nothing to stop it. No suppression mechanism Won't the high pressure to the west (at least as depicted on the 12Z cmc) have something to say about that? eta: Not being snarky at all. Just asking the question so I can learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 DT is woofing! “details shortly and on the TWITTER page --- approx an 8 hours event starts in ne nc eastern VA BEFROE DAWN on Sunday FULL UPDATE shortly ...woof....” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This setup reminds me of feb 2-3 2010. I believe that was a marginal event that trended north, it was at night too. Nice refresher here from CWG and Ian. Good reason to reminisce. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/30/looking-back-on-winter-2009-10-snowless-january-out-with-a-bang-just-the-beginning-of-an-epic-stretch/?_gl=1*1xgwv57*_ga*MjI0dHUtZmJoLVVUZFZway1zT3diaTExWktQM1JpTi13WHoxbzJNRHJESjdlYjdmWHhHTmZDUktuWFR1dlAzWA.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 What happened to the arctic air btw? Are the ensembles saying delayed but not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, 87storms said: others can elaborate better, but most of the models i see have the jet streak right overhead, but the differences seem to be at 500. gfs/para has a stronger vort lifting through the tn valley/southeast compared to ukmet/cmc. either way, looks like an ideal low track (could be a little further nw), but rates would certainly help since it'll be a daytime system/borderline temps. Agree with everything you said except day time. This falls after 1am monday into the morning hours up to like noon. Starting before dawn will help keep the BL cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, GATECH said: This setup reminds me of feb 2-3 2010. I believe that was a marginal event that trended north, it was at night too. Nice refresher here from CWG and Ian. Good reason to reminisce. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/30/looking-back-on-winter-2009-10-snowless-january-out-with-a-bang-just-the-beginning-of-an-epic-stretch/?_gl=1*1xgwv57*_ga*MjI0dHUtZmJoLVVUZFZway1zT3diaTExWktQM1JpTi13WHoxbzJNRHJESjdlYjdmWHhHTmZDUktuWFR1dlAzWA.. That storm really sucked in the city -- Forecast was for like 5 inches of snow, and think we were even under a WSW. But it really struggled to accumulate, even though the snow fell after dark. I think DC ended up with maybe 1 to 2 inches on the grass.. It was a pretty big bust, but no one cared because everyone was so distracted by the Blizzard that was on its way 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Agree with everything you said except day time. This falls after 1am monday into the morning hours up to like noon. Starting before dawn will help keep the BL cool. true. i think you meant sunday, but same logic applies. i was thinking more wrt the meat of the system. also think the recent snowpack could help with temps right above the surface leading into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, real said: That storm really sucked in the city -- Forecast was for like 5 inches of snow, and think we were even under a WSW. But it really struggled to accumulate -- maybe 1 to 2 inches on the grass.. It was a pretty big bust, but no one cared because everyone was so distracted by the Blizzard that was on its way 2 days later. Ultimately, 6.4 inches of dry, powdery snow fell at National Airport. The high temperature only reached only 23 degrees before the sun rose, and the very cold temperatures helped snowfall measurements to be fairly uniform across the area. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, wxdude64 said: Ultimately, 6.4 inches of dry, powdery snow fell at National Airport. The high temperature only reached only 23 degrees before the sun rose, and the very cold temperatures helped snowfall measurements to be fairly uniform across the area. ?? That is in reference to 1/30 not 2/2 in the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, wxdude64 said: Ultimately, 6.4 inches of dry, powdery snow fell at National Airport. The high temperature only reached only 23 degrees before the sun rose, and the very cold temperatures helped snowfall measurements to be fairly uniform across the area. ?? I think that was the Jan 31 storm not the Feb. 2/3 snow event. There were three events in that same week. One Sunday -- cold smoke 6 inches of snow that kept trending north. Then the warm bust midweek. And then the blizzard on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: true. i think you meant sunday, but same logic applies. i was thinking more wrt the meat of the system. also think the recent snowpack could help with temps right above the surface leading into it. Woops yeah Sunday. getting that precip to start before daytime warming would be important. This is more like a swf event. Surface is marginal but upper air is fine so if we find the right balance of precip/strength and timing will work out. You’d actually see more white rain if we got fringed. The heavier precip would help cool the BL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m045400 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Why does the rain/snow line ALWAYS go through my house in SoMD? I mean always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, real said: That storm really sucked in the city -- Forecast was for like 5 inches of snow, and think we were even under a WSW. But it really struggled to accumulate, even though the snow fell after dark. I think DC ended up with maybe 1 to 2 inches on the grass.. It was a pretty big bust, but no one cared because everyone was so distracted by the Blizzard that was on its way 2 days later. Yeah, I think the urban heat island did a number on it in DC. it was an appetizer for the big dog, I got a solid 5in here near Mt. Vernon, 4 WSW verified storms in 2 weeks...what a year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 25 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Won't the high pressure to the west (at least as depicted on the 12Z cmc) have something to say about that? eta: Not being snarky at all. Just asking the question so I can learn! I’m not the guy to learn from but in the upper levels there’s not a lot of confluence holding this back. I could easily see this really coming north. For that to happen I think it would have to amp up quite a bit and sharpen up the trough. Otherwise it’s just too fast and it comes and goes in the blink of an eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, GATECH said: This setup reminds me of feb 2-3 2010. I believe that was a marginal event that trended north, it was at night too. Nice refresher here from CWG and Ian. Good reason to reminisce. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/30/looking-back-on-winter-2009-10-snowless-january-out-with-a-bang-just-the-beginning-of-an-epic-stretch/?_gl=1*1xgwv57*_ga*MjI0dHUtZmJoLVVUZFZway1zT3diaTExWktQM1JpTi13WHoxbzJNRHJESjdlYjdmWHhHTmZDUktuWFR1dlAzWA.. That was great event out here. Around 6” started right before dusk. Beautiful snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Gefs and comparison maps anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, m045400 said: Why does the rain/snow line ALWAYS go through my house in SoMD? I mean always. because you live in southern MD. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I have no memory of that Feb 2-3, 2010 event. I remember the Jan 30 event very well, loved it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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