Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[CAPE]

[CAPE]

That is snow to rain to snow verbatim on the mean. One reason the snowfall is pretty meager.

[MD Snow]

57 minutes ago, jayyy said:

little too far out to trust a hi-res model

Yeah. Agreed. Hence the FWIW. Simply mentioned to show that there appears to be a trend towards a more amplified, further west solution. 

[Chris78]

11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

94?

The late January mixed storm literally missed my yard by like 20 miles with all snow . 18" fell just north while I got 5-6 inches of heavy sleet . The other 2 big hits were zrain and sleet combos in Westminster at the time . There was a couple snow hits too just can't remember totals. 

Yep. 94. Don't remember that much snow but remember many sleet Bombs changing to Zrain. 

I remember a few times with temps in the teens with Zrain falling.  Roads were literally skating rinks.

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This will be yours in the end dw lol.

Couldn't agree more. If this actually does happen, it has areas with elevation written all over it. This is the kind of setup where the cities/coastal plain get Snow TV while PSU jackpots with 6-10". 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Couldn't agree more. If this actually does happen, it has areas with elevation written all over it. This is the kind of setup where the cities/coastal plain get Snow TV while PSU jackpots with 6-10". 

Razor thin margin for victory for eastern areas.. A rain/snow mix or snow tv does nothing for me at this juncture. Blocking galore so far but I am not even half way to median snowfall.

As it stands now it looks like the chances for any legit cold is delayed until late next week.

[The Ole Bucket]

A quick inch or two on Super Bowl Sunday for central VA would be a nice little win.

[ravensrule]

28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Come NW baby!

Is that your standard pickup line?. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I always love when PSU says "we" don't want big cold because it ends up dry, except that is usually the only way it works out for the coastal plain, esp lately.

Didn’t DC just get it’s biggest snowstorm in over 2 years and 2nd biggest in 6 years?!  But I will, and have, admitted the “we” I speak of is more DC/Balt metro and points west centric. I guess I do kind of ignore the eastern shore and lower MD and VA northern neck south. There are 2 reasons.
 

1. There are only a few posters here from there. 95% of the people here are DC/Balt or places west/north since there are more population centers west of the 95 metros then southeast.

 

2. The combination of low elevation, further south, and proximity to the ocean makes the snow climo there REALLY difficult. Frankly those areas need a different look and yes you probably do want arctic air because big snow is even more an anomaly so while a big Arctic airmass might still not work out it does increase the chances of an southern slider Arctic boundary wave that gains just enough latitude to clip those areas.
 

The kinds of coastals that crush DC northwest are not really good for those areas. To get heavy precip DC to Hagerstown we need a low tucked into the Delmarva and that’s a rain track for you. You want a southern slider that clips you and me to be smoking cirrus. Look at the gfs ensembles. There are very few where we both get good snow. The members that give you a flush hit are pretty pathetic DC NW. the members that give DC area to me 10”+ are rain for you. 

 

it’s not impossible to get a storm that crushes both but it’s rare and walking a tightrope.  You do want a colder antecedent airmass because to get an all snow hit you either need a progressive wave suppressed south of most of this forum or if it’s an amplified system the rare setup where there is so much cold that you get crushed during WAA before the warm layer can get in. But those are 1-2 times a decade type storms. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

LOL is that good or bad. I have no reference. Was 0z posted?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL is that good or bad. I have no reference. Was 0z posted?

Its well NW.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2. The combination of low elevation, further south, and proximity to the ocean makes the snow climo there REALLY difficult

If I may , I understand everything you posted and totally agree, however, given the look of the pattern previously, combined with the weeks and weeks of -AO, -NAO and West based Greenland blocking one would have thought the area North of Dover Delaware and into the Wilmington corridor should have seen a lot more snow to date. 

I understand climo exists for a reason.

As you mentioned our climo is lower due to elevation, ocean NE wind influence ( more so earlier in the season ) and I would even include our latitude as well.    

Miller Bs for sure are way more erratic in snowfall distribution. Even in the 2016 Blizzard where Bob got 30 inches our forecast bust here because the best dynamics were West of the Bay. 

So many variables.  

Hopefully the upcoming pattern eventually produces a storm where the coastal plain can benefit. 

Seems for my area, and maybe @CAPE's as well, a Nino might be more effective because we lock in CAD and then get vigorous over-running.  

[LP08]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL is that good or bad. I have no reference. Was 0z posted?

Don’t have the 90 panel to compare from 0z but this is as close as it got.

[frd]

 

Intriguing, look to the NW 

Jack knows his stuff ! 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

This may continue to go NW and rain is certainly an option for my area. 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Didn’t DC just get it’s biggest snowstorm in over 2 years and 2nd biggest in 6 years?!  But I will, and have, admitted the “we” I speak of is more DC/Balt metro and points west centric. I guess I do kind of ignore the eastern shore and lower MD and VA northern neck south. There are 2 reasons.
 

1. There are only a few posters here from there. 95% of the people here are DC/Balt or places west/north since there are more population centers west of the 95 metros then southeast.

 

2. The combination of low elevation, further south, and proximity to the ocean makes the snow climo there REALLY difficult. Frankly those areas need a different look and yes you probably do want arctic air because big snow is even more an anomaly so while a big Arctic airmass might still not work out it does increase the chances of an southern slider Arctic boundary wave that gains just enough latitude to clip those areas.
 

The kinds of coastals that crush DC northwest are not really good for those areas. To get heavy precip DC to Hagerstown we need a low tucked into the Delmarva and that’s a rain track for you. You want a southern slider that clips you and me to be smoking cirrus. Look at the gfs ensembles. There are very few where we both get good snow. The members that give you a flush hit are pretty pathetic DC NW. the members that give DC area to me 10”+ are rain for you. 

 

it’s not impossible to get a storm that crushes both but it’s rare and walking a tightrope.  You do want a colder antecedent airmass because to get an all snow hit you either need a progressive wave suppressed south of most of this forum or if it’s an amplified system the rare setup where there is so much cold that you get crushed during WAA before the warm layer can get in. But those are 1-2 times a decade type storms. 

lol I was just having a bit of fun at your expense.

I know my climo here, and what is ideal for my yard is not necessarily what you want to see, but it is not all that rare either. Long term avg snowfall here is higher than DC, at 18.5".

There are many times I have gotten moderate or even significant snow that have left places NW of I-95 high and dry. Happened in Jan of 2017 and 18 most recently. Both of those events had legit cold air in place. That tends to even things out a bit, because clearly being further inland is better much of the time.

[frd]

 

Another step down, the coldest version yet.

 This is starting to resemble some of the temperature means that preceded MECS from the early 2000s. 

 

 

[chris21]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol I was just having a bit of fun at your expense.

I know my climo here, and what is ideal for my yard is not necessarily what you want to see, but it is not all that rare either. Long term avg snowfall here is higher than DC, at 18.5".

There are many times I have gotten moderate or even significant snow that have left places NW of I-95 high and dry. Happened in Jan of 2017 and 18 most recently. Both of those events had legit cold air in place. That tends to even things out a bit, because clearly being further inland is better much of the time.

I know this has been hashed and rehashed but the long term avg at DCA is not really representative of even downtown though. NW DC is prob closer to 20. For instance, in this past storm I measured 5.5 inches while DCA measured 3.2. In 2016, there was a uniform 23-26 inches in NW, while DCA recorded 16. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

If I may , I understand everything you posted and totally agree, however, given the look of the pattern previously, combined with the weeks and weeks of -AO, -NAO and West based Greenland blocking one would have thought the area North of Dover Delaware and into the Wilmington corridor should have seen a lot more snow to date. 

I understand climo exists for a reason.

As you mentioned our climo is lower due to elevation, ocean NE wind influence ( more so earlier in the season ) and I would even include our latitude as well.    

Miller Bs for sure are way more erratic in snowfall distribution. Even in the 2016 Blizzard where Bob got 30 inches our forecast bust here because the best dynamics were West of the Bay. 

So many variables.  

Hopefully the upcoming pattern eventually produces a storm where the coastal plain can benefit. 

Seems for my area, and maybe @CAPE's as well, a Nino might be more effective because we lock in CAD and then get vigorous over-running.  

That part of his post was overstating it. Last year sucked for the whole region, but going forward, snow climo here may well become worse.

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That part of his post was overstating it. Last year sucked for the whole region, but going forward, snow climo here may well become worse.

Agreed,  the base state and the warmth of the Atlantic seem to be issues. 

 

 

[Negnao]

2 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I know this has been hashed and rehashed but the long term avg at DCA is not really representative of even downtown though. NW DC is prob closer to 20. For instance, in this past storm I measured 5.5 inches while DCA measured 3.2. In 2016, there was a uniform 23-26 inches in NW, while DCA recorded 16. 

Exactly right. Dca isn’t even representative of the entire city. It’s really an island to itself which is why we should let people who care about science have the official reporting site at the zoo. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I know this has been hashed and rehashed but the long term avg at DCA is not really representative of even downtown though. NW DC is prob closer to 20. For instance, in this past storm I measured 5.5 inches while DCA measured 3.2. In 2016, there was a uniform 23-26 inches in NW, while DCA recorded 16. 

I get that, but the point I was making is that over here the historical snowfall avg is not much different than places along and east of I-95 west of the bay. It gets better right along and then ofc much better west of the fall line.

[LP08]

Nam will be north of 6z for the weekend.  

[LP08]

Nam at 9z Sunday has heavy snow from ezf north to just south of the Mason Dixon line.

[Newman]

[aldie 22]

Just now, Newman said:

That's certainly an interesting development.

[WVclimo]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nam at 9z Sunday has heavy snow from ezf north to just south of the Mason Dixon line.

Deepening low pressure on the OBX.  Nice area-wide hit.

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

BOOM 

[LP08]

Kuchera is LOL.  basically 8-12 from SW VA through the cities.  

[jayyy]

NAM reacted to the look of the PAC it appears. Models the past 3-4 days weren’t close with forecasting heights out there. Still also think models had zero clue what to do with that giant storm stalled out in the Atlantic for half a week.