Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[psuhoffman]

Full tuck or bust 

[Heisy]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

just messing with ya, it was a good piece of pattern recognition by you.  I agree that there is an elevated threat of a storm there

You can see the nice trend on the eps today as well. Hopefully we see eps start honing in on it more over the next few days. Gfs also had that quick spike in the pna which allowed that wave to dig as far as it did. Seeing slightly better pna ridging today hopefully that continues. HA event potentially. That 50/50 region is hawt. Just need spacing to work out

[Stormfly]

1994, remember that well too!  Burned through about half of my vacation time because it was impossible to get up the hill from our home! 

Lots of ice, rain on top of snow, froze solid, snow on top of it.  Felt sorry for anyone that had to dig, even the big excavators couldn't move around.  And if you fell on a slight incline, better hold on because you were going all the way down!  Lots of humming at night, eerie blue-green flashes all around and poof!  Spending lots of my younger times at sea I was accustomed to the humming of two stroke diesels so I had no problem sleeping during the long outages.  I do prefer the throb of the prime movers though and pity those depending on 3600 rpm natural gas gennies to keep their freezers humming in the south when the big canes tear the overheads down as far as the eye can see.

1977, lived just outside of the beltway (between Carney and Parkville) and remember the freezing over of the inner harbor and Chesapeake Bay!  Holy Moly if there is a winter that could be called a mini ice age that was it!  People were driving across the harbor!

In April we went down to our beach home on Nabbs Creek to be greeted by ice over 5" thick!  The air bubblers weren't able to keep up and the dock was in moderately poor shape with lots of heaved pilings.

[Heisy]

2 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

1994, remember that well too!  Burned through about half of my vacation time because it was impossible to get up the hill from our home! 

Lots of ice, rain on top of snow, froze solid, snow on top of it.  Felt sorry for anyone that had to dig, even the big excavators couldn't move around.  And if you fell on a slight incline, better hold on because you were going all the way down!  Lots of humming at night, eerie blue-green flashes all around and poof!  Spending lots of my younger times at sea I was accustomed to the humming of two stroke diesels so I had no problem sleeping during the long outages.  I do prefer the throb of the prime movers though and pity those depending on 3600 rpm natural gas gennies to keep their freezers humming in the south when the big canes tear the overheads down as far as the eye can see.

1977, lived just outside of the beltway (between Carney and Parkville) and remember the freezing over of the inner harbor and Chesapeake Bay!  Holy Moly if there is a winter that could be called a mini ice age that was it!  People were driving across the harbor!

In April we went down to our beach home on Nabbs Creek to be greeted by ice over 5" thick!  The air bubblers weren't able to keep up and the dock was in moderately poor shape with lots of heaved pilings.

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

[SnowenOutThere]

Yoinked this from the southeast thread but it seems to make sense and thought you people would like to see it. 

 

I've seen him post about this a few times, but Anthony M has this theory / observation about storm evolution during retrograding -NAO blocks....the first few storms track north (across New England) and feed into the developing block, then the next one or two storms are suppressed events when the block is retrograding (best potential across the South), with the finale being a traditional Mid-Atlantic to New England nor' easter as the block lifts out.

The previous retrograding block episode that we just had went down that way.  There was a storm across New England on Jan 26...then the Raleigh thundersnow storm on Jan 28, then the traditional nor'easter on Feb 1

[Stormpc]

24 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

And then the Great Blizzard of '78!!! I was on Long Island for that one. 

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

Was in high school at that time.  Ice storm after ice storm. I think we went 2 months without having a full week of school. My sister fractured her arm ice skating in the back yard that year.

[ryanconway63]

DT hasnt given up on the Sunday event either....Models really should converge on a solution tomorrow being its only about 72 hours away

[Weather Will]

18Z EPS quiet (Snowless) next 6 days. 
 

[ryanconway63]

Any changes on the 18z Euro Ensemble for Sunday??

[ryanconway63]

thank you

[blueberryfaygo]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/01/18/record-cold-cripples-area/2279dc16-0ff4-467d-add1-605e56558b8f/

I know the bay froze and everything in 77.. but I am pretty sure that there was a stretch in February 2015 where our area break record low max temps multiple days in a row.. I feel like that would have rivaled 77.   I am also pretty sure that the last 10-15 years have been some of the coldest and snowiest on record for us.. especially if you look at extreme/ anomalous events.

[blueberryfaygo]

yeah Feb 15 - 20 2015.. thats one of our coldest stretches we ever seen (7 records over these days (bwi))

 

15  45  27 0.11 0.3  77 /1949  18 /2015+  6 /2015+ 51 /1949  1.06 1958 11.5 1958 
16  45  27 0.10 0.3  75 /1954  18 /2015+  5 /2015+ 55 /1954  2.01 2003 21.8 2003 
17  45  27 0.11 0.4  76 /1976  12 /1958   3 /1958  58*/1891  1.15 1982  7.8 1893 
18  46  27 0.10 0.2  75 /1976  13 /1979   3 /1979  51 /2011  1.60 1887  5.7 1964 
19  46  27 0.10 0.3  72 /1997  18 /2015   5 /1903  49 /2017  1.76 1927 16.4 1979 
20  46  27 0.11 0.3  76 /2018+ 18 /2015+  1 /2015  57 /1939  1.81 1924  9.9 1947 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/01/18/record-cold-cripples-area/2279dc16-0ff4-467d-add1-605e56558b8f/

Yeah for wall to wall cold that was the winter

[SteveRDU]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Miller A Baby 

 

Kind of like the bomb cyclone track but further west.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, SteveRDU said:

Kind of like the bomb cyclone track but further west.

Hopefully the period mid month and beyond delivers for us in the coastal plain. 

I don't want to have to chase at Dewey Beach,  however, if I did I get a Fractured prune donut, yum yum, but I digress,  I want Middletown buried !   

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

94?

The late January mixed storm literally missed my yard by like 20 miles with all snow . 18" fell just north while I got 5-6 inches of heavy sleet . The other 2 big hits were zrain and sleet combos in Westminster at the time . There was a couple snow hits too just can't remember totals. 

Yea but due to that 6” of sleet there was snowcover until mid March straight through. I was in northern VA and we mostly had bare ground all winter as it was mostly just freezing rain down there. We did get a 3” sleet storm in Feb that I think we like 8” of snow/sleet up here. 

ETA: 1994 was really only about avg snowfall up here (lots of mixed storms) but it was so cold it built up a 13” glacier snowpack and the coop up the road in Miller’s reported snowcover from the January 4 coastal that ended as 4” of snow until March 20th. Even absent a big all Snow event or above normal snowfall that would rank pretty high imo. Time with snowcover on the ground is probably the number 1 thing in my book. I dont know why. It’s probably some defect. But I just feel better when there is snow on the ground in winter. 

[SteveRDU]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Hopefully the period mid month and beyond delivers for us in the coastal plain. 

I don't want to have to chase at Dewey Beach,  however, if I did I get a Fractured prune donut, yum yum, but I digress,  I want Middletown buried !   

I’ll be in bethany at that time, come on down and party, the beach needs a little liveliness this time of year.

[Wetbulbs88]

I was in New York for ‘15, and I’m 32, but that was the coldest winter I’ve ever experienced. Weeks of highs not breaking 25 and nearly a whole week below 20. Unbelievable. 

[midatlanticweather]

ICON - Miss to the south now.

[JakkelWx]

Gimme 10 'fiddy

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

85 was epic cold. That and 1994 are my record low of -6. Inauguration Day was 11F at the time for it, I think DCA was 14 for a high, I was 9F

1994 just incredibly cold in afternoon with falling afternoon temperatures and 1 at 6pm. Ice storms ar 22F and repeated bitter cold shots 

1982 epic back to back Cold Sundays.

1977 for that 35 day period, I think we hit 43 one day and then constant teens and 20’s  for highs. 

Some other great ones in 78 and 79 and this century also but those stand out to me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[anotherman]

I’ll never forget ‘94. I was a freshman at Penn State-Altoona. I went to get gas with a friend and the pumps were frozen. Never experienced that before.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm not buying the cutter solution with no frozen day 5/6 . I think it trends south with a at minimal front end for us .

If the PV dumps west initially it could. But models are going to struggle with this pattern. A lot of extreme gradients and potential energy for them to resolve. 

[Ji]

The gfs 500mb comparing 18z run and 00z aren't even in the same galaxy next week

[LP08]

Gfs doesn’t split the PV as much as previous runs.  Parks it right over just north of the Great Lakes.  Looks pretty primed for a storm post 180 as wentz has been point out.

[Cobalt]

14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

No surprise to me given the bit more favorable hieghts out ahead per 18z guidance.  Still work needed but a baby  step 

CMC is a bit NW too. Seems like the bleeding southeast has eased a bit, but at least we're not out of the game based on guidance being somewhat close.

[yoda]

Weird evolution of the Day 9 into Day 11 system... but we get hit good Day 11 on 00z GFS 

[yoda]

Looks intriguing on h5 out west at hr 300... gets buried out in the Pacific at 324 lol

[Ji]

Pass

Way too east