Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[frd]

Miller A Baby 

 

[benjammin]

Giant, huge, barking dog happy hour 18z GFS for the SE (BECS) into VA and MD...only 11 days away. 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Miller A Baby 

 

4-5"+ of cold smoke powder as shown, given the temperatures.

[frd]

 

Snow cover in every state !

Of course I believe it 

 

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Was that 85? I guess it was. And for some reason I thought it was in early Feb. I remember there was some snow on the ground but it was mild and melty that day. Temps were in the low 40s or something.

We have discussed that one on here quite a few times. Instant whiteout, thunder, and legit flash freeze. It had it all.

It could've been early Feb. I'm not 100 percent sure but I though it was the 26th of January. I do remember an early Feb. storm that was a bust. It was supposed to be a rain changing to heavy snow type deal with up to 10 inches possible and instead it was 1-2 after the changeover.

[WinterWxLuvr]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

Dude, it was unbelievable. Went to bed on Saturday night around midnight with pouring snow but temps in the upper 20’s. Woke to about 7” and temps at -7. Didn’t go above zero until Tuesday 

[WVclimo]

For this area, the record low temp on 1/20/1985 was just outside of the top ten coldest nights in the 100-year period of record, at 11th all-time.  And the record low max of 1/21 was one of the coldest 7 days ever.  But as @WEATHER53 can tell you, the winds with those temps made it even more extreme.  An air mass deserving of a "brutally cold" forecast.

As Ji said, the cold shot aligning with Reagan's second Inaguration made it more memorable also. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

cause of the inaguration thing. It was bone dry and bitter cold. Worst combo ever

 

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

For this area, the record low temp on 1/20/1985 was just outside of the top ten coldest nights in the 100-year period of record, at 11th all-time.  And the record low max of 1/21 was one of the coldest 7 days ever.  But as @WEATHER53 can tell you, the winds with those temps made it even more extreme.  An air mass deserving of a "brutally cold" forecast.

As Ji said, the cold shot aligning with Reagan's second Inaguration made it more memorable also. 

I remember that.  Coldest inauguration on record, I believe.

(ETA:  I was in northeast Ohio at the time, still in high school...and it was bitter cold in Ohio that month!)

[osfan24]

5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Mid month in February is earlier than other months

Sun angle season is approaching!

[aldie 22]

GFS seems a little bouncy

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, anotherman said:

I remember Alaska had its first normally cold winter in awhile last winter and that obviously wasn’t good for us.

And how about warm winters in Alaska prior to that? How did those work out for us?

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

It could've been early Feb. I'm not 100 percent sure but I though it was the 26th of January. I do remember an early Feb. storm that was a bust. It was supposed to be a rain changing to heavy snow type deal with up to 10 inches possible and instead it was 1-2 after the changeover.

Went back and looked. It was the 25th of Jan.

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Was that 85? I guess it was. And for some reason I thought it was in early Feb. I remember there was some snow on the ground but it was mild and melty that day. Temps were in the low 40s or something.

We have discussed that one on here quite a few times. Instant whiteout, thunder, and legit flash freeze. It had it all.

Not sure what year it was, but there was a legit flash freeze in South Jersey when I was a kid. Could have been 1985, but more likely to have been a couple years later. All I remember was that we ended with a couple inches of snow on the ground and a frozen, 2-8" deep and probably 5000 sq ft "pond" that was created by a small creek that overflowed its banks into a bowl-like park. We were able to ice skate and play hockey on that thing for what seemed like days and days on end. So much fun.

[Heisy]

I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about  

[gopper]

19 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Snow cover in every state !

Of course I believe it 

 

Right! and the Carolina's and Georgia have more than us!  That ain't right!

[HighStakes]

It would be nice to have a below average month for a change.

[Stormfly]

Yes 1985, when it rains it pours.  Not that it was rain but so much weather in just a week's time.

From my post earlier, just over two years ago here...

Best squall I've experienced in my life was in Harford County MD near Jarrettsville.

It was Friday, January 25, 1985.  Story time!

I just got finished up with dinner.  Turned on the TV and was flipping through channels.  WTTG (Channel 5 in DC) was always sensitive to sferics and I used that to know in the summer when TRW was nearby or so.  Never expected to see white static and crashes through the speaker in Jan.  WTF!  So I watched and again, not even a minute later, another one!  So, I take a look out my den window facing due west and sure enough, I can see lightning in the distance.  While this would be no biggie in May, in Jan it is and this area rarely sees thundersnow.  As I kept watching, I noticed what I thought was a dog that got loose from one of the neighbors.  It waddled closer in and to my surprise it was a HUGE Canadian goose!  Well that surely was strange.  And then there was another flash that was bright enough that it took my attention off the goose.  I noticed a few flurries coming down as well.  There were two more flashes and I heard thunder.  This was sounding just like a decent thunderstorm approaching in the spring or summer.  But!  It was snow.  And boy did it snow.  The streetlights up on the main road disappeared and I thought perhaps the power went out, then the houses across the street completely obscured from view!  Not foggy-ish, just gone.  Then I realized what was happening.  It arrived.  What would normally be a torrential downpour was an intense snow squall that was a total white out.  Looking out the window was like looking out there with a white sheet over the glass.  Simply amazing.  There was a blinding flash followed by thunder less than a second later.  It was exceedingly blue-white brilliant like a huge high intensity discharge (HMI) lamp starting up.  The wind was also roaring.  I ran downstairs to my shack and checked and the wind speed on my Heathkit ID4000 was at 49 mph.  It was a very high sustained wind during the event.  The peak gust was 53mph.  The anemometer was mounted at 10 meters on a free standing Rohn 25G tower so those numbers are legit.

 

The funniest part of the story is when I pulled the curtain back to look outside, there was a blinding flash of light and right outside the window was that damn goose!  I scared him and he spread his wings and jumped in the air and I nearly fell backwards away from the window.  I actually recall screaming, it was that bad.  If you've ever seen the movie Free Willy, near the beginning where the kids were at the aquarium painting the tank windows with graffiti and the lightning flashes and Jessie sees Willy for the first time with mouth open and screams, well there you go, that's it right there!

Anyhow, after that was over, we had a good 6 or 7" of new snow in well under an hour, 40-45 minutes tops and most of that was in that heavy burst.  I would not want to be caught driving in something like that for sure.  Those are the kind of *instant whiteout* that cause big traffic pileups on the interstate.  Because someone is going to stop and someone isn't.

I've never seen this happen before.  Have seen thundersnow several times, but that was truly legit and it was wonderful.

[aldie 22]

38 minutes ago, frd said:

Miller A Baby 

 

Pass

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Dude, it was unbelievable. Went to bed on Saturday night around midnight with pouring snow but temps in the upper 20’s. Woke to about 7” and temps at -7. Didn’t go above zero until Tuesday 

I was only 7 and living in NJ.  All I know is according to the local coop here there was only 11.5" of snow the entire winter and no single event more then 3".  In 132 years of records I compiled using coop data it was the 4th least snowy winter and the 2nd worse in terms of the most pathetic "greatest snowfall" at 3".  Only 1950 was worse.  It's one of only 3 years in 132 that didn't feature a warning level event here.  I don't care how amazing that cold front was that would have been a horrible winter that I would never want to go through again and would probably try to block from my memory.  Looking at records it was also much colder then average which is another reason I do not chase arctic outbreaks.  The often do us no good wrt snow.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Yes 1985, when it rains it pours.  Not that it was rain but so much weather in just a week's time.

From my post earlier, just over two years ago here...

Best squall I've experienced in my life was in Harford County MD near Jarrettsville.

It was Friday, January 25, 1985.  Story time!

I just got finished up with dinner.  Turned on the TV and was flipping through channels.  WTTG (Channel 5 in DC) was always sensitive to sferics and I used that to know in the summer when TRW was nearby or so.  Never expected to see white static and crashes through the speaker in Jan.  WTF!  So I watched and again, not even a minute later, another one!  So, I take a look out my den window facing due west and sure enough, I can see lightning in the distance.  While this would be no biggie in May, in Jan it is and this area rarely sees thundersnow.  As I kept watching, I noticed what I thought was a dog that got loose from one of the neighbors.  It waddled closer in and to my surprise it was a HUGE Canadian goose!  Well that surely was strange.  And then there was another flash that was bright enough that it took my attention off the goose.  I noticed a few flurries coming down as well.  There were two more flashes and I heard thunder.  This was sounding just like a decent thunderstorm approaching in the spring or summer.  But!  It was snow.  And boy did it snow.  The streetlights up on the main road disappeared and I thought perhaps the power went out, then the houses across the street completely obscured from view!  Not foggy-ish, just gone.  Then I realized what was happening.  It arrived.  What would normally be a torrential downpour was an intense snow squall that was a total white out.  Looking out the window was like looking out there with a white sheet over the glass.  Simply amazing.  There was a blinding flash followed by thunder less than a second later.  It was exceedingly blue-white brilliant like a huge high intensity discharge (HMI) lamp starting up.  The wind was also roaring.  I ran downstairs to my shack and checked and the wind speed on my Heathkit ID4000 was at 49 mph.  It was a very high sustained wind during the event.  The peak gust was 53mph.  The anemometer was mounted at 10 meters on a free standing Rohn 25G tower so those numbers are legit.

 

The funniest part of the story is when I pulled the curtain back to look outside, there was a blinding flash of light and right outside the window was that damn goose!  I scared him and he spread his wings and jumped in the air and I nearly fell backwards away from the window.  I actually recall screaming, it was that bad.  If you've ever seen the movie Free Willy, near the beginning where the kids were at the aquarium painting the tank windows with graffiti and the lightning flashes and Jessie sees Willy for the first time with mouth open and screams, well there you go, that's it right there!

Anyhow, after that was over, we had a good 6 or 7" of new snow in well under an hour, 40-45 minutes tops and most of that was in that heavy burst.  I would not want to be caught driving in something like that for sure.  Those are the kind of *instant whiteout* that cause big traffic pileups on the interstate.  Because someone is going to stop and someone isn't.

I've never seen this happen before.  Have seen thundersnow several times, but that was truly legit and it was wonderful.

lol I went back and found that thread too. Great story, and similar to my experience that evening, minus the goose.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about  

AHEM

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about  

just messing with ya, it was a good piece of pattern recognition by you.  I agree that there is an elevated threat of a storm there

[clskinsfan]

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/01/18/record-cold-cripples-area/2279dc16-0ff4-467d-add1-605e56558b8f/

[CAPE]

Keep hope alive. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

77 I could deal with...because while it was MUCH below normal snowfall here (only about 55%) it was still better then 1985 and every inch didn't melt for weeks and this area slowly built up a 10" snow depth 2" at a time and had snowcover for like 6 weeks.  That would be kind of cool even if a little disappointing to only get half of average snowfall with all that cold.  77 is ANOTHER example of why I don't chase arctic outbreaks.  I am not kidding...our coldest periods usually do NOT coincide with our snowiest periods.  

[southmdwatcher]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

85 was cold for sure. But it is no comparison to 77. That is the coldest winter I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Hell it snowed in Miami for goodness sake. 

And both of those Winter's had incredible squalls that rolled through the region.

[WVclimo]

I was in high school in Cumberland in '77 and it was the biggest waste of non-stop cold weather I've ever experienced.  We had flurries for weeks and when we did get an inch or two of snow, it turned into a glacier in a day or so.  If you like cold temps, that season was legend.  But the snow wasn't the kind you shovel or sweep.  A chisel would have been more appropriate.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

94 was an exception . Lots of juiced storms along with incredible cold for 6 weeks . I'm not sure 77 had the far reaching record lows like 94 but I could be wrong. 

77 was pretty cold but I think it was not the duration...77 winter broke in early February I think.  94 was sustained cold from the arctic front on Xmas until March.  The core of the cold was still further NW of us in 94 it was just SOOOOO cold it was still plenty cold here.  But you don't want the PV over Ohio if you want snow.  

[southmdwatcher]

One bump west will be fine. 

[gymengineer]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was only 7 and living in NJ.  All I know is according to the local coop here there was only 11.5" of snow the entire winter and no single event more then 3".  In 132 years of records I compiled using coop data it was the 4th least snowy winter and the 2nd worse in terms of the most pathetic "greatest snowfall" at 3".  Only 1950 was worse.  It's one of only 3 years in 132 that didn't feature a warning level event here.  I don't care how amazing that cold front was that would have been a horrible winter that I would never want to go through again and would probably try to block from my memory.  Looking at records it was also much colder then average which is another reason I do not chase arctic outbreaks.  The often do us no good wrt snow.  

I totally understand for your area, but for IAD and DCA, the 84/85 snow total was higher than *six* of the last ten seasons. A 10” month is often a climb for DCA, but 1/85 managed to hit that mark. A repeat down here would be subpar but on the upper band of that kind of winter and the extreme cold wave would mark it as memorable.