Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[Amped]

19 minutes ago, high risk said:

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!

      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

GFS Para has the same performance score as the old GFS.   This happens with every supposed "improvement" to the GFS physics and resolution.  It's still just as wrong as the old GFS but in a different way.  

Kind of reminds me of the Washington Football team.  Whatever improvements they make they're still 6-10, they just win a different 6 games.

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS Para has the same performance score as the old GFS.   This happens with every supposed "improvement" to the GFS physics and resolution.  It's still just as wrong as the old GFS but in a different way.  

Kind of reminds me of the Washington Football team.  Whatever improvements they make they're still 6-10, they just win a different 6 games.

     No offense, but that's a poor take - you can't assess it by a single 30 day period.      It has been run since last summer in real-time, and retrospective runs were made to cover the previous year.      The scores for the para were overall better, and it's also better in several aspects of performance besides the 500 pattern (reduced cold bias, improved precip scores, better hurricane intensity.....)

[WinterWxLuvr]

58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Starts off ok Friday. 

I’m so focused on that that I don’t really care about beyond it. It’s next so it’s the most important.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m so focused on that that I don’t really care about beyond it. It’s next so it’s the most important.

Sure, I'll take a little stats padder. If mid Feb ends up being solid, we could creep towards an average season. That's my goal. 

[flsch22]

40 minutes ago, high risk said:

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!

      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

Thanks for sharing this.  Curious is the FNO the ICON? What's the CFSR? Thanks

 

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, flsch22 said:

Thanks for sharing this.  Curious is the FNO the ICON? What's the CFSR? Thanks

 

    The ICON isn't included.   FNO is the Navy (Fleet Numerical) model.   CFSR is a version of the Climate Forecast System that is serves a bit of a baseline.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

     No offense, but that's a poor take - you can't assess it by a single 30 day period.      It has been run since last summer in real-time, and retrospective runs were made to cover the previous year.      The scores for the para were overall better, and it's also better in several aspects of performance besides the 500 pattern (reduced cold bias, improved precip scores, better hurricane intensity.....)

Thanks for this!  The only thing I would change about your post would be to remove the "No offense" part...screw it, offense is deserved for knee-jerk reactions about model performance like this.  Personally, I found the comment to be an insult to those developers and scientists who have worked hard on the GFSv16 and its implementation.  Mini-rant over.

[Roger Smith]

Would be a shame to waste all that cold air coming along without much snow but the CMC does show a bit of potential around days 8-9, nothing very exciting yet. And I get excited fairly easily. 

[ryanconway63]

How does the Euro Ensemble look for the Sunday Event?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

How does the Euro Ensemble look for the Sunday Event?

Further SE than the previous run.

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Thanks SE ridge

That’s the risk with AO blocks retrograding west. Forces ULL sit west of lakes which increases ridging on the EC. Then you get HP off the EC. You have to hope the ULL is strong enough to get the gradient south enough

This is why I’m more excited in the Day 10+ time frame. Look at end of euro run you have an elongated PV in 50/50 location with confluence draped behind it. A rising PNA. If a shortwave can form between the two it’s a perfect setup * note the HP sitting in a great spot at the end of the run.

im still not dismissing anything until then I just like the potential towards feb 11-17 more

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Someone mentioned earlier they were concerned over the frigid Arctic conditions in Alaska  being a bad sign for the East Coast,  your animation shows the Artic Air in Alaska doesn't last there very long and then everything shift south and east into North America.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Someone mentioned earlier they were concerned over the frigid Arctic conditions in Alaska  being a bad sign for the East Coast,  your animation shows the Artic Air in Alaska doesn't last there very long and then everything shift south and east into North America.

I believe @usedtobe or @Ian had a good research article about how cold pooling over Alaska during the depths of winter could mean a big east coast ridge was developing. Not sure who authored it, but I remember reading and the science was pretty sound.

[Amped]

35 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

That’s the risk with AO blocks retrograding west. Forces ULL sit west of lakes which increases ridging on the EC. Then you get HP off the EC. You have to hope the ULL is strong enough to get the gradient south enough

This is why I’m more excited in the Day 10+ time frame. Look at end of euro run you have an elongated PV in 50/50 location with confluence draped behind it. A rising PNA. If a shortwave can form between the two it’s a perfect setup * note the HP sitting in a great spot at the end of the run.

im still not dismissing anything until then I just like the potential towards feb 11-17 more

It's always 10+ days away.

[frd]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I believe @usedtobe or @Ian had a good research article about how cold pooling over Alaska during the depths of winter could mean a big east coast ridge was developing. Not sure who authored it, but I remember reading and the science was pretty sound.

I recall that as well.

However, it doesn't appear to last. 

[anotherman]

I believe [mention=70]usedtobe[/mention] or [mention=1615]Ian[/mention] had a good research article about how cold pooling over Alaska during the depths of winter could mean a big east coast ridge was developing. Not sure who authored it, but I remember reading and the science was pretty sound.

I remember Alaska had its first normally cold winter in awhile last winter and that obviously wasn’t good for us.

[NorthArlington101]

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!
      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

Thanks, that is the graph I saw in the tweet!

[Warm Nose]

Serious question that I don't know the answer to: Is there a correlation between SN events and radically cold temperatures in our region? I've heard it said perhaps jokingly that 'it's too cold for snow' and maybe there's some truth to that climo for us? Seems like we score when we're on that razor's edge temp-wise and not when cold airmass isn't a concern.

[Ji]

Icon continues to give hope....looks like PARA

[Maestrobjwa]

36 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Serious question that I don't know the answer to: Is there a correlation between SN events and radically cold temperatures in our region? I've heard it said perhaps jokingly that 'it's too cold for snow' and maybe there's some truth to that climo for us? Seems like we score when we're on that razor's edge temp-wise and not when cold airmass isn't a concern.

I think you're more or less correct here...If I'm not mistaken, our snowstorms come along the boundary between cold and warm (the more knowledgeable posters can correct me here if necessary). That cold presses too much it seems to squashe the storm track south (not that that is the only way suppression can occur, but in relation to the "too much cold"...yes)

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...snow is snow imo in any amounts .

I imagine places like Smithsburg, near Thurmont-Emmitsburg,  Cascade,Sabilsville are close to climo . 30-40" season totals already . I have 22" w/ 2 -- 10 inchers . Rest is gravy for me . 

I have not had my normal nickel and dime events this year. So I am still 8 inches under climo. Even with the December and last weeks storms. Was really dead between those 2 events though.  One more event should do it for me. And I am pretty confident that will happen in the next month. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Someone mentioned earlier they were concerned over the frigid Arctic conditions in Alaska  being a bad sign for the East Coast,  your animation shows the Artic Air in Alaska doesn't last there very long and then everything shift south and east into North America.

That’s what happened in 85. It sat up there for a bit and then got turned loose and the rest is history 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s what happened in 85. It sat up there for a bit and then got turned loose and the rest is history 

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

cause of the inaguration thing. It was bone dry and bitter cold. Worst combo ever

[Ji]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

I'm not ready to give up on Sunday yet . Gefs still with some nice hits in there. 

GFS/Para close enough not to give up. its one of those things that could resurface like on a friday 00z run you least expect it

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm not ready to give up on Sunday yet . Gefs still with some nice hits in there. 

Euro went from suppression to cutter in one run.  No way is this over.

[HighStakes]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

 

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

85 had s cold spell I believe 

Basically it's the legendary arctic front but there were some other events that were decent but there also were a couple busts that would've of made it a very good year if they panned out. 

I can remember several cold blasts and there was the all time greatest snow squall in late January that accompanied another arctic front. 

[frd]

Katie bar the door.

 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

 

Basically it's the legendary arctic front but there were some other events that were decent but there also were a couple busts that would've of made it a very good year if they panned out. 

I can remember several cold blasts and there was the  all time greatest snow squall in late January that accompanied another arctic front. 

Was that 85? I guess it was. And for some reason I thought it was in early Feb. I remember there was some snow on the ground but it was mild and melty that day. Temps were in the low 40s or something.

We have discussed that one on here quite a few times. Instant whiteout, thunder, and legit flash freeze. It had it all.