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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 2/3/2021 at 7:00 PM, high risk said:

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.thumb.png.055333baeaa18c78f9aded8c0274c5cd.png

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!

      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

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GFS Para has the same performance score as the old GFS.   This happens with every supposed "improvement" to the GFS physics and resolution.  It's still just as wrong as the old GFS but in a different way.  

Kind of reminds me of the Washington Football team.  Whatever improvements they make they're still 6-10, they just win a different 6 games.

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  On 2/3/2021 at 7:24 PM, Amped said:

GFS Para has the same performance score as the old GFS.   This happens with every supposed "improvement" to the GFS physics and resolution.  It's still just as wrong as the old GFS but in a different way.  

Kind of reminds me of the Washington Football team.  Whatever improvements they make they're still 6-10, they just win a different 6 games.

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     No offense, but that's a poor take - you can't assess it by a single 30 day period.      It has been run since last summer in real-time, and retrospective runs were made to cover the previous year.      The scores for the para were overall better, and it's also better in several aspects of performance besides the 500 pattern (reduced cold bias, improved precip scores, better hurricane intensity.....)

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  On 2/3/2021 at 7:00 PM, high risk said:

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.thumb.png.055333baeaa18c78f9aded8c0274c5cd.png

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!

      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

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Thanks for sharing this.  Curious is the FNO the ICON? What's the CFSR? Thanks

 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 7:33 PM, high risk said:

     No offense, but that's a poor take - you can't assess it by a single 30 day period.      It has been run since last summer in real-time, and retrospective runs were made to cover the previous year.      The scores for the para were overall better, and it's also better in several aspects of performance besides the 500 pattern (reduced cold bias, improved precip scores, better hurricane intensity.....)

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Thanks for this!  The only thing I would change about your post would be to remove the "No offense" part...screw it, offense is deserved for knee-jerk reactions about model performance like this.  Personally, I found the comment to be an insult to those developers and scientists who have worked hard on the GFSv16 and its implementation.  Mini-rant over.

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  On 2/3/2021 at 6:35 PM, Amped said:

qaL0GfI.gif

Thanks SE ridge

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That’s the risk with AO blocks retrograding west. Forces ULL sit west of lakes which increases ridging on the EC. Then you get HP off the EC. You have to hope the ULL is strong enough to get the gradient south enough

This is why I’m more excited in the Day 10+ time frame. Look at end of euro run you have an elongated PV in 50/50 location with confluence draped behind it. A rising PNA. If a shortwave can form between the two it’s a perfect setup * note the HP sitting in a great spot at the end of the run.

im still not dismissing anything until then I just like the potential towards feb 11-17 more

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  On 2/3/2021 at 8:39 PM, frd said:

Someone mentioned earlier they were concerned over the frigid Arctic conditions in Alaska  being a bad sign for the East Coast,  your animation shows the Artic Air in Alaska doesn't last there very long and then everything shift south and east into North America.

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I believe @usedtobe or @Ian had a good research article about how cold pooling over Alaska during the depths of winter could mean a big east coast ridge was developing. Not sure who authored it, but I remember reading and the science was pretty sound.

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  On 2/3/2021 at 8:14 PM, Wentzadelphia said:

That’s the risk with AO blocks retrograding west. Forces ULL sit west of lakes which increases ridging on the EC. Then you get HP off the EC. You have to hope the ULL is strong enough to get the gradient south enough

This is why I’m more excited in the Day 10+ time frame. Look at end of euro run you have an elongated PV in 50/50 location with confluence draped behind it. A rising PNA. If a shortwave can form between the two it’s a perfect setup * note the HP sitting in a great spot at the end of the run.

im still not dismissing anything until then I just like the potential towards feb 11-17 more

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It's always 10+ days away.

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  On 2/3/2021 at 8:48 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

I believe @usedtobe or @Ian had a good research article about how cold pooling over Alaska during the depths of winter could mean a big east coast ridge was developing. Not sure who authored it, but I remember reading and the science was pretty sound.

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I recall that as well.

However, it doesn't appear to last. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 8:48 PM, Eskimo Joe said:
I believe [mention=70]usedtobe[/mention] or [mention=1615]Ian[/mention] had a good research article about how cold pooling over Alaska during the depths of winter could mean a big east coast ridge was developing. Not sure who authored it, but I remember reading and the science was pretty sound.

I remember Alaska had its first normally cold winter in awhile last winter and that obviously wasn’t good for us.
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  On 2/3/2021 at 7:00 PM, high risk said:
   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):
acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.thumb.png.055333baeaa18c78f9aded8c0274c5cd.png
     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!
      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

Thanks, that is the graph I saw in the tweet!
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Serious question that I don't know the answer to: Is there a correlation between SN events and radically cold temperatures in our region? I've heard it said perhaps jokingly that 'it's too cold for snow' and maybe there's some truth to that climo for us? Seems like we score when we're on that razor's edge temp-wise and not when cold airmass isn't a concern.

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  On 2/3/2021 at 9:23 PM, Warm Nose said:

Serious question that I don't know the answer to: Is there a correlation between SN events and radically cold temperatures in our region? I've heard it said perhaps jokingly that 'it's too cold for snow' and maybe there's some truth to that climo for us? Seems like we score when we're on that razor's edge temp-wise and not when cold airmass isn't a concern.

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I think you're more or less correct here...If I'm not mistaken, our snowstorms come along the boundary between cold and warm (the more knowledgeable posters can correct me here if necessary). That cold presses too much it seems to squashe the storm track south (not that that is the only way suppression can occur, but in relation to the "too much cold"...yes)

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  On 2/3/2021 at 8:48 PM, losetoa6 said:

Yep...snow is snow imo in any amounts .

I imagine places like Smithsburg, near Thurmont-Emmitsburg,  Cascade,Sabilsville are close to climo . 30-40" season totals already . I have 22" w/ 2 -- 10 inchers . Rest is gravy for me . 

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I have not had my normal nickel and dime events this year. So I am still 8 inches under climo. Even with the December and last weeks storms. Was really dead between those 2 events though.  One more event should do it for me. And I am pretty confident that will happen in the next month. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 8:39 PM, frd said:

Someone mentioned earlier they were concerned over the frigid Arctic conditions in Alaska  being a bad sign for the East Coast,  your animation shows the Artic Air in Alaska doesn't last there very long and then everything shift south and east into North America.

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That’s what happened in 85. It sat up there for a bit and then got turned loose and the rest is history 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 10:04 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s what happened in 85. It sat up there for a bit and then got turned loose and the rest is history 

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Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 10:34 PM, psuhoffman said:

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 10:43 PM, losetoa6 said:

85 had s cold spell I believe 

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Basically it's the legendary arctic front but there were some other events that were decent but there also were a couple busts that would've of made it a very good year if they panned out. 

I can remember several cold blasts and there was the all time greatest snow squall in late January that accompanied another arctic front. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 10:49 PM, HighStakes said:

 

Basically it's the legendary arctic front but there were some other events that were decent but there also were a couple busts that would've of made it a very good year if they panned out. 

I can remember several cold blasts and there was the  all time greatest snow squall in late January that accompanied another arctic front. 

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Was that 85? I guess it was. And for some reason I thought it was in early Feb. I remember there was some snow on the ground but it was mild and melty that day. Temps were in the low 40s or something.

We have discussed that one on here quite a few times. Instant whiteout, thunder, and legit flash freeze. It had it all.

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