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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 2/2/2021 at 11:18 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey guys don't look at the snow or precipitation maps until at least Thursday because it is just not worth it. Just look at the low and precip maps and the trends.

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This is a bad example of kind of collective will it north attitude this board needs to have to make it a repeat of the 1/30/10 success. 

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  On 2/2/2021 at 11:24 PM, SnowGolfBro said:

Scenario 2 would give many of us more snow in 6 hours than we had during the 72 hour marathon of light snow and snow showers.  Would certainly be cool to have a nice snow pack before the arctic blast 

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Very much agree.  Would love to have a fresh pack get a few deep winter days.  

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No surprise there is plenty of uncertainty for late in the weekend, but this is how to make a forecast and keep all possible outcomes in play.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then a chance of rain showers after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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  On 2/3/2021 at 12:00 AM, SnowenOutThere said:

Could anyone post the 18z Euro model? It would be appreciated. 

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It’ll get posted pretty much every time when there is an event in play.  You don’t even have to ask.  The next event wouldn’t start until around 120 hours though and the 18z Euro only goes out to 90,  so you can maybe get some clues about it but you’ll have to wait for the 18z EPS to see how it trended.  That comes out around 8pm or a little after I believe. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 12:01 AM, CAPE said:

No surprise there is plenty of uncertainty for late in the weekend, but this is how to keep all possible outcomes in play.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then a chance of rain showers after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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Nobody does it better than the Alaska forecasters. Only there will you see a forecast that reads “a chance of snow. Highs -5 to 25, lows -20 to 10, chance of snow 50%” ... and see the same forecast for days

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  On 2/3/2021 at 12:06 AM, DCTeacherman said:

It’ll get posted pretty much every time when there is an event in play.  You don’t even have to ask.  The next event wouldn’t start until around 120 hours though and the 18z Euro only goes out to 90,  so you can maybe get some clues about it but you’ll have to wait for the 18z EPS to see how it trended.  That comes out around 8pm or a little after I believe. 

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Oh thanks for clearing up the confusion. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 12:06 AM, DCTeacherman said:

It’ll get posted pretty much every time when there is an event in play.  You don’t even have to ask.  The next event wouldn’t start until around 120 hours though and the 18z Euro only goes out to 90,  so you can maybe get some clues about it but you’ll have to wait for the 18z EPS to see how it trended.  That comes out around 8pm or a little after I believe. 

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And if it doesn't get posted you know it sucks lol.

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Time to go full weenie mode. Right around the Feb. 12th-14th period all the indicies are lining up and pointing to a very nice window of opportunity. AO remains severely negative and NAO is on the rise from severely negative. EPO is negative as is the WPO. PNA tries to get to neutral or slightly positive. Coincides with our prime climo. MJO may try for 8. 

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  On 2/3/2021 at 12:14 AM, losetoa6 said:

Euro jumping onboard for Friday am frozen . Maybe sneak in an inch .

Just saw Nam . Drops coating to a  couple inches verbatim northern areas Friday 

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EPS hour 120 and then 126. If there is going to be a storm to effect us,  it looks to be a fast mover with the arctic air mass on its heels. 

 

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