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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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51 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, not necessarily favoring the GFS here.

The GFS sometimes in La Niñas can win on these ideas like Sunday where northern stream dominance prevents a storm. I would normally toss this but in a La Niña winter I am wary of this sort of solution when the GFS is on its own 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS sometimes in La Niñas can win on these ideas like Sunday where northern stream dominance prevents a storm. I would normally toss this but in a La Niña winter I am wary of this sort of solution when the GFS is on its own 

Wondering whether the GFS is over doing the cold intensity and placement, so possibly this results in too much suppression.  However, as you mention, it is a Nina so the GFS can not be discounted at this time.  

 

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The key to the day 8-10 threat is what the tail of the TPV does.  

WHatweneed.png.face38195e987ed07a9e46982a1a8e93.png

We need the tail of the trough to break off a SW and dig into the east...which will in turn create some separation between the 50/50 and pump some ridging along the east coast.  If that trailing SW moves more east and misses the connection with the STJ everything will likely be suppressed.  If something digs into the MS/TN valley we likely get a storm up the east coast.  

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The key to the day 8-10 threat is what the tail of the TPV does.  

WHatweneed.png.face38195e987ed07a9e46982a1a8e93.png

We need the tail of the trough to break off a SW and dig into the east...which will in turn create some separation between the 50/50 and pump some ridging along the east coast.  If that trailing SW moves more east and misses the connection with the STJ everything will likely be suppressed.  If something digs into the MS/TN valley we likely get a storm up the east coast.  

Hopefully the tail of the TPV allows for some tuck

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s still cold enough to suppress two storms south of us day 5 and 9 lol. I’ll pass on arctic cold if it means we don’t get any snow. 

1. Agree.

2. Caveat: if you start wringing your hands and angsting about suppression again I'm gonna cut you. 

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