SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z UK looks like it would support snow at the end of its run. Low off the NC/SC border with precip approaching our area from the SW. Would be close on the thermals but at least the low goes under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ EURO for weekend Just a question on this map. Looking at the storm signal it has, how can it only produce this much snow? The snow looked heavy, and granted it did look like a fast mover, but this seems low overall, for everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I’m thinking now is the perfect time to set ourselves with a mindset of 1-3 inches by late Sunday night (including the squall on Friday)—-safe expectations. Until, of course, the weenie model that pops up with more ——and then, well, I fold like a cheap card table with disappointment of less than 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks like plenty of cold air in the upcoming weeks and looks active. Fun couple weeks of tracking ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: Looks like plenty of cold air in the upcoming weeks and looks active. Fun couple weeks of tracking ahead Source regions getting primed to deliver arctic air over large areas of the country. Combined with snow cover and looking nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Here we go again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS is no dice for Feb 8th. Way south and OTS, right where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks like 12z GFS is gonna miss on the Sunday threat. ETA: ninja'd by jakkel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS won’t catch on likely until Thursday. As long as the Euro keep advertising it I’ll be interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Amy's post looking even better. Meaning after 60 days the composite will look more like a typical SSW response here in NA , even more in the NE I believe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Looks like 12z GFS is gonna miss on the Sunday threat. ETA: ninja'd by jakkel Just now, Scraff said: GFS won’t catch on likely until Thursday. As long as the Euro keep advertising it I’ll be interested... I think thus far, the past several runs, the GFS has been indicating more of a very strong frontal passage here for Sunday, with the southern low remaining well south. Haven't seen the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS was right 4-5 days out last week. The king is dead. Enjoy the quiet and cold. At least 60 doesn’t look likely anytime soon. 2 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, ovechkin said: GFS was right 4-5 days out last week. The king is dead. Enjoy the quiet and cold. At least 60 doesn’t look likely anytime soon. Okay it's been five minutes. Has the Salvia worn off yet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The 12z GFS verbatim actually is a stinker. Not only is there no snow through 7 days, it doesn't send the core of the cold down to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 WOW If this happens in Feburary, it's bound to get wet (trend wetter) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The 12z GFS verbatim actually is a stinker. Not only is there no snow through 7 days, it doesn't send the core of the cold down to us. I was thinking the same thing! The whole set up for wave trains and Arctic air kind of fizzled out (to a degree (or maybe 20 degrees - LOL)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eps looks solidly cold . I'm riding that Yeah, not necessarily favoring the GFS here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Btw, this timeframe for -NAO is exactly at +20-25 days the 10mb Stratosphere warming, which is +verification yet again (regardless of if 500mb is - or not in the beginning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, not necessarily favoring the GFS here. Why would anyone favor the GFS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The euro did pretty damn well with this past storm from 8 days out. Some folks firmly believe a few clown maps of 20-40” from various runs 7+ days out not verifying means the mode busted - that couldn’t be further from the truth. That’s not how analytics work when you’re trying to figure out the reliability of a model. It nailed many aspects of this storm, and the track of both the primary and the secondary coastal low. The fact that it missed some of the aspects regarding h5/h7 and where the best moisture feed would be, but nailed the rest (cold, confluence, storm track) is pretty damn impressive. NWS and Mets don’t use a singular model to make a forecast for a reason: because no model will nail every aspect of a storm. We shouldn’t expect that from any model either as snow enthusiasts As far as next weekend is concerned, the GFS is showing its typical SE bias given the setup at 500mb and strong confluence to the north. If EPS/Euro/Ukie/Canadian are consistent with the overall potential, as we are seeing on the euro today, but are simply shifting solutions by 50-100-150 miles either way this far out - that’s perfectly fine. The GFS being suppressed and the euro showing the potential is exactly where we want to be right now. If by Thursday the GFS still shows nothing, then we can begin to worry about a miss. The upcoming pattern is absolutely ripe for Miller A’s and overrunning type events. Let’s get it!!! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Out to 120 on the CMC on pivotal, its much closer than it's 00z run to finding us a storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps looks solidly cold . I'm riding that If the afternoon EPS comes in again like last night we will have multiple threats to consider moving towards mid month. I feel the GFS is not handing Canada well and the evolution of the TPV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Out to 120 on the CMC on pivotal, its much closer than it's 00z run to finding us a storm. Ninja'd. But yeah. It would be some light snow through the area verbatim. Pretty wild progression with 2 lows sliding east that close together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Okay, when's the next storm? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Pivotal shows just light precip. A step back from 0z . 1 inch of snow Baltimore on ne It has a storm riding up the coast but also a great lakes low. My takeaway is it has a storm in the general vicinity of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 49 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 12z GFS verbatim actually is a stinker. Not only is there no snow through 7 days, it doesn't send the core of the cold down to us. It’s still cold enough to suppress two storms south of us day 5 and 9 lol. I’ll pass on arctic cold if it means we don’t get any snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s still cold enough to suppress two storms south of us day 5 and 9 lol. I’ll pass on arctic cold if it means we don’t get any snow. Going to require some phasing, lets see the afternoon EPS . I can't wait 10 days for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: Going to require some phasing, lets see the afternoon EPS . I can't wait 10 days for more snow. Sun Angle is getting unreal bad if you are south of 38N. I agree brother. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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