jayyy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Had 3.5 yesterday, compacted down to 2 and back up to 3.25 Overall the models and most forecasters missed this for DC proper. Not so close by but that is the most frequent finish to Bs. Not a bust and there have been several awful painful historic ones. Not a hit either. This seems to start reversal of our bad winter pattern and we might not get above 25 by Sun and Mon Wrong thread chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS blows chunks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: Wrong thread chief. Sorry guys I will take out Chief 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS blows chunks CMC is also a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS blows chunks Now...I hesitate to ask (because I'm no longer use which questions are obnoxious), what's the little split thing the GFS is doing here? This just the two piece of energy not phasing with each other...and one going one OTS and the other cutting? (now I'm not familiar with a "cold" cutter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Does anyone else find it sort of funny the normally cold biased GFS basically has had Op run after Op run the last 3 days with the trof digging the least and the most SE ridging the next 2 weeks out of the three major globals? Really strange. The CMC and Euro have been repeatedly keeping the thermal gradient centered in the gulf states run after run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Para and ukmet have some snow with the wave next weekend. Para has a big storm day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Para and ukmet have some snow with the wave next weekend. Para has a big storm day 10. Let’s stick with the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro's Sunday storm doesn't have the trough digging as much as it did for the massive 12z storm, but still gets the job done. 0z GEFS also backed off of the Euro idea with a flatter and more broad trough (product of less ridging out west to my novice eyes?), but still has the window there. Will be interesting if the EPS bleeds to the GEFS solution, but obviously we're still way at range. Euro's solution is still pretty fun to see still lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 986mb 00z Mon by ACY lol... long week of tracking once again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 WB OZ EURO for weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro's Sunday storm doesn't have the trough digging as much as it did for the massive 12z storm, but still gets the job done. 0z GEFS also backed off of the Euro idea with a flatter and more broad trough (product of less ridging out west to my novice eyes?), but still has the window there. Will be interesting if the EPS bleeds to the GEFS solution, but obviously we're still way at range. Euro's solution is still pretty fun to see still lol Euro has a great lakes low but we still get a quick 4-8" and don't changeover. Going to blow around quite a bit with a 960 low in the gulf of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro has a great lakes low but we still get a quick 4-8" and don't changeover. 12z had that feature too. Not really sure how that doesn't impede the storm but it's still an interesting solution, but yeah how can a 999 lp near Ohio and a 985lp off the coast of NJ both strengthen like that at the same time? :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: 12z had that feature too. Not really sure how that doesn't impede the storm but it's still an interesting solution, but yeah how can a 999 lp near Ohio and a 985lp off the coast of NJ both strengthen like that at the same time? :p Quite an odd looking 500mb map. Actually has the polar vortex bent in a way it could phase and form a major storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Good grief. That's indeed one heck of an odd one. Look at that laminar flow that covers nearly the entire latitude of CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro doesn't have the 2nd storm that 12z did FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Euro doesn't have the 2nd storm that 12z did FWIW Probably not much...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Amped said: Quite an odd looking 500mb map. Actually has the polar vortex bent in a way it could phase and form a major storm. I like this so much, its now gracing my desktop. I even put it on my new tablet as a pdf lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 LWX morning AFD discussing the Sunday potential... even talks about dangerously low wind chills possible on Monday .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure over Lake Superior Friday morning is forecast to track northeastward up the Saint Lawrence River Valley. This will drag a cold front across the Middle Atlantic by Friday afternoon. Lingering scattered showers are likely for a time ahead of the front during the first half of the day, and some brief wintry mixed precipitation can`t be ruled out given residual lower-level cold air in place (especially where a thicker snow pack persists). Thereafter, a robust blocking ridge is forecast to begin developing over west-central Greenland into the Davis Strait. This will force a broad, deep trough southward from the Arctic regions of far northern Canada into the northern United States. This trough will likely spawn low pressure at the surface near the north-central coast of the Gulf of Mexico Saturday afternoon. Where it goes after that is the all important question for the weather locally. The anticipated position of a ridge just west of the West Coast of North America would suggest a track just west of the crest of the Appalachian Mountains, but the broad, deep and progressive nature of the longwave trough would suggest a flatter track out into the western Atlantic Ocean. Subtropical ridging near the Greater Antilles and the aforementioned downstream blocking near Greenland/southeastern Canada may prevent a harmless out-to-sea track, though. As such, most guidance has some semblance of measurable precipitation during the second half of the weekend, but there is a lot of spread as to how much. As usual, this will depend on the ultimate track and strength of low pressure. The ECMWF model continues to depict a more amplified solution, and its ensemble mean has trended up with probabilities for accumulating snow over the last several runs. This, combined with at least a loose clustering of low pressure tracks just off the Carolina coast from the NAEFS and near to below normal temperatures during this time would tend to support the threat of some wintry weather Sunday. Regardless of whether or not snow is observed, an outbreak of Arctic air will rush across the region early next week. Dangerously low wind chill temperatures would be likely in this scenario on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Amped said: Euro has a great lakes low but we still get a quick 4-8" and don't changeover. Going to blow around quite a bit with a 960 low in the gulf of ME That is not the typical great lakes low lol. That is a muther of a daughter vortex dropping down. It is cold ahead of it, and super cold behind it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is not the typical great lakes low lol. That is a muther of a daughter vortex dropping down. It is cold ahead of it, and super cold behind it. Was it phasing in with the SLP on the 12z run and that's how we got the mega snows? Or am I wrong and it was something completely different that caused that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Was it phasing in with the SLP on the 12z run and that's how we got the mega snows? Or am I wrong and it was something completely different that caused that? There is interaction/phasing in both cases, but on the 12z run the southern energy was more amped/further south and stayed separate until much later/closer to the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 FWIW, 00z EURO control run is on board for Sunday for a 4-8" event -- then in the 12th to 14th time period blasts us with another major snowstorm 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 06z GFS misses with this weekend... but then has a parade of 3 waves/storms from the 11th to the 16th lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: FWIW, 00z EURO control run is on board for Sunday for a 4-8" event -- then in the 12th to 14th time period blasts us with another major snowstorm Pics or it didn’t happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The EPS is insanely cold. Nearly ten days of 10-14 degrees below normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: Pics or it didn’t happen. Both maps are 10:1 SRs... there is no Kuchera for the control FYI This weekend After the 12th-14th storm moves through 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This is the new Its Happening gif!! 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now wait a minute we can't have a Ji AND and Jih in here too, lol it's an L lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts