JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 That's a pretty good signal. Just need a high overhead and not a GL low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The GFS has been showing precip along the cold frontal passage at the edge of the arctic airmass at 6-7 days. Those can be squall-y and fun if it comes together right. Something to keep an eye on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Pure model porn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 1:57 PM, JakkelWx said: Pure model porn Expand One of the things I'm trying to learn is how to read that map and tell if its a cold/dry look (I get the placement of the NAO/AO/EPO/etc). But to me that would seem to suggest NS dominated and/or cold/dry. Deepest low heights are centered over the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 2:21 PM, nj2va said: One of the things I'm trying to learn is how to read that map and tell if its a cold/dry look (I get the placement of the NAO/AO/EPO/etc). But to me that would seem to suggest NS dominated and/or cold/dry. Deepest low heights are centered over the great lakes. Expand That's just the general pattern going forward, and yes it does look cold and dry somewhat but the mean skews/washes out any PNA spike or brief relaxation in the block. The biggest plus in that map is we will actually have a real cold air source. It's game on essentially 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 1:57 PM, JakkelWx said: Pure model porn Expand Clipper pattern? Progressing to loading pattern for a MECS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wlantry Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 10:02 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Could be a record -AO start to Winter through February, love to see how this evolves Expand I just saw a forecast low of 11 degrees for Monday, Feb 08. Is that real? Likely to change? Should I buy a propane heater for my greenhouse, just in case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 3:42 PM, wlantry said: I just saw a forecast low of 11 degrees for Monday, Feb 08. Is that real? Likely to change? Should I buy a propane heater for my greenhouse, just in case? Expand A 7-day forecast is always going to change except under extreme rare circumstances. Even a 5-day is likely to shift - though hopefully not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 1:46 PM, MN Transplant said: The GFS has been showing precip along the cold frontal passage at the edge of the arctic airmass at 6-7 days. Those can be squall-y and fun if it comes together right. Something to keep an eye one. Expand This caught my eye too. This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it. Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The GFS and the CMC both show a potential for a squall line followed by extremely cold temperatures. Then after that they also both show a cold powder storm at D9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 4:29 PM, high risk said: This caught my eye too. This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it. Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015. Expand I loved that event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 4:26 PM, JakkelWx said: Expand That's just a wee bit chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 4:29 PM, high risk said: This caught my eye too. This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it. Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015. Expand Yes...just looking at that now, myself. It definitely looks very much like the event in Feb. 2015 with a couple hours squall followed by a literal blast of cold (2" snow at my place from that). That is a strikingly similar look, honestly, if it were to play out as shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 5:30 PM, losetoa6 said: Gfs has period of snow sleet Friday morning then Sunday. I'll take CMC for Sunday. Expand CMC similar to the GFS for the weekend with blasting a front through, but actually a little later it appears (more like Sunday night as opposed to earlier in the day). I'll have what the CMC is smokin' for next Wednesday (Feb. 10)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The day 7 threat has turned into a 6 day threat one day later... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 982 right up the Bay on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 brings it up the bay as a 982 L at 150 so DC mixes after a 2-4 thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Anybody checked the 12z Euro.....WOOF WOOF for Superbowl Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 That thing goes mega boom north of here! Blizzard for NE. Exact storm tracks are way too far off for fine details! Just fun to have something to watch. The War between the models is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 6:40 PM, ryanconway63 said: Anybody checked the 12z Euro.....WOOF WOOF for Superbowl Sunday Expand We’re talking about it in the 3-7 day threat thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 6:41 PM, stormtracker said: We’re talking about it in the 3-7 day threat thread. Expand whoops, thought thats what i was in.....was wondering why it was silent here lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 6:35 PM, rjvanals said: brings it up the bay as a 982 L at 150 so DC mixes after a 2-4 thump Expand Baroclinic energy off the charts next week with this potential event 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Not worried about the fine details at this range (low going from 996 southeast of Hatteras to 982 in the Chesapeake to 970 over New York City in 12 hours). It's just really good to see potential on the map less than a week out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yes, would love to see it stay just offshore and ride the coast so everybody scores. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 On 2/1/2021 at 6:51 PM, ryanconway63 said: Yes, would love to see it stay just offshore and ride the coast so everybody scores. Expand Certainly ideal! Mid-range tracking with long-range potential. We're in peak climo, so let's give a run! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 UKIE at 144 is very appetizing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 another big storm on Euro next Wed......I wont sleep much this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What a weenie run of the Euro. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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