frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Another interesting look, including the Atlantic side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Continued blocking in February looking more and more likely, combined with an increasing probability of help form the Pac side , and the ongoing the evolution from the SSWE and colder source regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Way out there, but one way the pattern evolves. Cold may not be an issue in this time frame. Indices would suggest a high impact winter storm might be possible . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 HM mentioning the AAM moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 @frd has basically just said get ready for a month full of blizzards 4 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 May go the entire month of February with a - AO. Meanwhile, NW and Western Canada will load with a deepening arctic air mass and it appears that makes it way East in time behind a cutter and then a wave may travel afterwards ushering in the arctic air. When you have as weak vortex, such as we have currently, you can go to this look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Has BamWx committed Seppuku yet? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Has BamWx committed Seppuku yet? they were supper happy the EPS flipped or something last night to warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: they were supper happy the EPS flipped or something last night to warmer Not going to be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: @frd has basically just said get ready for a month full of blizzards Is he working for the Farmer's Almanac? (I mean they actually did go a bit ape...predicting a blizzard in the middle of the month, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Firs time looking at the LR in a few days. GEFS really honking a cold pattern with ample blocking. Maybe we will make up for 4 weeks of handwringing and letdowns with a rockin Feb! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Firs time looking at the LR in a few days. GEFS really honking a cold pattern with ample blocking. Maybe we will make up for 4 w̶e̶e̶k̶s̶ years of handwringing and letdowns with a rockin Feb! Fixed And we would certainly be entering February with a bang if this weekend goes as modeled!! Seriously...this weekend producing and a rockin' February is what we need in the worst way after the past 4-5 years. That would be a heck of a way to break the warning-snow drought! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Latest NAM state forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 hours ago, poolz1 said: Firs time looking at the LR in a few days. GEFS really honking a cold pattern with ample blocking. Maybe we will make up for 4 weeks of handwringing and letdowns with a rockin Feb! @poolz1 The GEFS did well as Ventrice mentioned, identifying the cold period , see below. And check out the GEFS 18z I believe the GEPS is also cold, but the EPS is not. Maybe the EPS will move towards the GEFS This vortex feature near Feb 10 th. swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @frd Yes...def impressive for the GEFS LR. I'll have to look at what the weeklies were suggesting at the same time.... Check out the cross polar flow from D10 to the end of the run. The Aleutian low and 50/50 low both spinning in place...HP over GL. Nice! Probably will have to endure a cold and dry stretch but the next relaxation will have more going for it with real Arctic cold in the pattern and just the fact that its Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @frd eps isn’t warm Imo that look is going to press the cold and suppress the SE ridge. There is no way we are very warm for long with that look. We will want the boundary not far to our south otherwise that would be a cold dry look. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Time to refocus on this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Deepest - AO is yet to arrive. Very impressive dive from already negative values. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Based off some comments from HM along with other modeling I would speculate the EPS might cave to the GEFS longer term colder ideas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: Deepest - AO is yet to arrive. Very impressive dive from already negative values. Just incredible that it's so warm out.. goes with my theory that the Arctic ice real melt is lagging what it really is.. like, you know that by 2035-2040.. so things happen then, ya know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: Based off some comments from HM along with other modeling I would speculate the EPS might cave to the GEFS longer term colder ideas. Incredible that the Stratosphere is so warm too.. we could go -NAO through February. (I'd be interested to see what happens with that in the last week of the month.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The GFS has another storm next weekend. And a train of them sitting out west. Gonna be a busy couple of weeks. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS has another storm next weekend. And a train of them sitting out west. Gonna be a busy couple of weeks. The wave along the front type deal behind the cutter next week has been showing up occasionally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The wave along the front type deal behind the cutter next week has been showing up occasionally. 1055 High just North of Montana , Brrr . As @psuhoffman mentioned, we need some help from the SE ridge, if not, the pattern may go cold and dry. I think there is potential here. ju 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Very insightful. As you can see from Dr. Butler's images, it shows the averaged surface temp response form all SSWes, and then the other image represents the surface temps from Jan 5 to the 23 rd. Clear to see the colder temp response was on the other side of the pole in the NH during that time period. Amy makes the point that due to various factors, ( ie. Arctic blocking location, North Atlantic jet stream ) when we look at this again in 60 days based on a colder pattern change coming up here in Eastern NA., we may experience colder surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, frd said: 1055 High just North of Montana , Brrr . As @psuhoffman mentioned, we need some help from the SE ridge, if not, the pattern may go cold and dry. I think there is potential here. I this what one would consider a real gradient event and/or SW flow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 hours ago, mattie g said: I this what one would consider a real gradient event and/or SW flow event? Both I would think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 At it again next Saturday with trailing wave. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 -PNA pattern is really wet, if that's what happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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