arlwx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 As a back-surgeried warminista, I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Febrrary is ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold? I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps. So far, it is not advertising any notable cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 36 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps. So far, it is not advertising any notable cold. Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air... I agree with that assessment. I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold. I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Interesting, so basically could have been worse. Also may shed a bit of light on Feb and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12 hours ago, cbmclean said: I agree with that assessment. I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold. I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold. Some decent cold air potential during this period on the EPS. There is a mechanism to inject cold southward between the WPO/Chukchi ridge and the TPV, but most of it ends up out west. For this period, the Pac improves enough to allow the mean trough to shift eastward, but it appears to be transient on the means. A long way out so we will just have to monitor the trends as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Some associations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Way, way out there Rated on a complexity scale 9 out of 10 . I am being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Signs increasing the NAO tanks again in 10-15 days. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Of course they lean warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The relaxation looks brief. By mid Feb we look right back into it. I guarantee if everything else there is correct that SE ridge won’t last long. plus even with that ridge the cold is pressing. Look where the boundary is. Looks like the pattern is rebooting only with a lot more cold to work with. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Of course they lean warm The GEFS is trending the wrong way for them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Geps agrees 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Growing evidence of real cold into Canada as Feb advances, while the - NAO recycles, along with hopefully some Pac improvement. Vortex remains weak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Of course they lean warm Just a small annoyance on what BAMWX says in this tweet: Model output isn't data, it's information. Data is unstructured, raw material without meaning until structured and aligned with other data. Information is the output of structured data that has meaning and context for users. Long range looks quite promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The GEFS is trending the wrong way for them. They’ve always got some point to prove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel March forth with confidence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yes please No bamwx tweet for that run???? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel You and I both know you could cancel that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 After a brief flirtation with merely slightly negative the troposphere NAM tanks again by February 10. It’s becoming clear we will go wall to wall -AO this year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: After a brief flirtation with merely slightly negative the troposphere NAM tanks again by February 10. It’s becoming clear we will go wall to wall -AO this year. Maybe setting us up for our late February or early March HECS when the pattern relaxes again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Maybe setting us up for our late February or early March HECS when the pattern relaxes again? We can get a pretty good event with an extremely -AO so long as there isn’t a too suppressive NAO block. So it will depend on details we can’t see yet. But it’s good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 8:16 PM, psuhoffman said: We can get a pretty good event with an extremely -AO so long as there isn’t a too suppressive NAO block. So it will depend on details we can’t see yet. But it’s good. This is so depressing @psuhoffman Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Dude.. A -500dm west-based -NAO on January 26th, and it doesn't snow, it rains? It's like 50 degrees. The Pacific Ocean is a current that is closing in general, unless something more volitiale happens. I'm about to give up on this hobby. We could still see the occasional blizzard, but it will only last for like 2-3 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: NAO remains firmly negative as does AO. Looks like we finally get a -EPO in 10 days or so. Tonight's GFS advertising some serious cold 2nd week of February. 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead. Well that was one hell of a GFS extended run. @HighStakes nailed it on the head. Plenty of waves to contend with too and baroclinic zone pressed to the south, which prevents the cutter potential. Hell, even a marginal low track can bring winter that those kind of temp anomalies. Hopefully the trend for that time frame continues. That's historically the meat and potatoes for snow events back home. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This is so depressing Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk@psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Well that was one hell of a GFS extended run. @HighStakes nailed it on the head. Plenty of waves to contend with too and baroclinic zone pressed to the south, which prevents the cutter potential. Hell, even a marginal low track can bring winter that those kind of temp anomalies. Hopefully the trend for that time frame continues. That's historically the meat and potatoes for snow events back home. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Best look yet in the 10 day mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Day After Tomorrow This has overall support moving forward. Maybe a wave before this arctic blast and a large storm afterwards, during a relax period. . Initial moisture may be an issue, but it looks like opportunities will be there as mentioned by @MillvilleWx 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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