Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,144
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 1/21/2021 at 6:51 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast.

Expand  

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block.  If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low.  It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...:yikes:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/21/2021 at 7:14 PM, psuhoffman said:

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block.  If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low.  It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...:yikes:

Expand  

Is that a good :yikes: or a concerned about downside :yikes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/21/2021 at 8:42 PM, frd said:

@psuhoffman

Even going into early Feb , not bad.  You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3  rd. Here we are at the 5 th,

 

 57AFBC32-507C-4FA1-BB29-46508675F0ED.png

 

 

Expand  

That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/21/2021 at 9:07 PM, psuhoffman said:

That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. 

Expand  

Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March,  I am intrigued if we can maintain the  - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. 

 

Here is mid Feb

 

Screenshot_20210121-153540_Chrome.jpg

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 9 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/21/2021 at 9:16 PM, frd said:

Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March,  I am intrigued if we can maintain the  - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. 

 

Here is mid Feb

 

Screenshot_20210121-153540_Chrome.jpg

 

 

Expand  

That’s actually a pretty good look. Shades of 2014 and 2015. Those years achieved that through a different mechanism on the Atlantic side...a trapped tpv. That setup has pac ridge further west but a -NAO to offset. The result is a similar pattern over the conus. Wouldn’t be as cold but a good storm track in Feb and early March is ok so long as we’re not torching and we shouldn’t be in that look. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Retreat! 

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 10 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0

(With next week's east coast storm ~ a week away, this will be the last post of this type in the long-range forum) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...