ErinInTheSky Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Euro comes in with the last minute save to keep some of us from the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Euro comes in with the last minute save to keep some of us from the ledge. Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. Hard to filter out the noise. Thanks MJO not the demon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: Hard to filter out the noise. Thanks MJO not the demon. I wasn’t poking at you. But I’ve said for a while I think the mjo is symbiotic. It’s part of the big picture. And often if it’s a strong signal it does align with the pattern. But sometimes when other things are driving the bus a weak mjo signal won’t offset. It’s failed to save us in bad patterns and it’s failed to kill us in good ones. But there are like 800 correlations to each little variable and what this phase does in that solar or this qbo and when there is a full moon with a vampire attack. I dunno how you use all that crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ji said: That was the mess the gfs was showing the other day when it was dumping everything west and punching a ridge to the North Pole (not exaggerating lol) ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 5 runs (College Park) through Feb 2 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now. You chasin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I don't know.. I think it's weird that the -NAO empties into -PNA honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. You've seen my SSW post in the trash? It favors -NAO until Feb ~15-20 Not valid I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. No. I see now. Makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 AAM is rotation of the globe,... it's at like 0.001. lol just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain. Why did you make eye contact? Now look what you done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Euro ensembles aint no Tesla 24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: AAM is rotation of the globe,... it's at like 0.001. lol just kidding Shut up Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Es Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 n00b question - what is the difference between the EPS Ensemble Control, and the standard Euro Operational model? Different physics? From what I understand, the Ensemble Control is the un-augmented run, which sounds like what the Operational is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Jason Es said: n00b question - what is the difference between the EPS Ensemble Control, and the standard Euro Operational model? Different physics? From what I understand, the Ensemble Control is the un-augmented run, which sounds like what the Operational is. It's run at the ensemble resolution not the op resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week. The model is truly like spinning the wheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol GFS is just so scattershot for all of next week. It’s the only guidance still keying on the front running NS wave so much. That messes up the wave for the 26th. Then (not that by then it matters if it’s wrong with waves 1-2) it’s faster then all other guidance with the 3rd wave so it’s too close to wave 2 and washes out. I’d toss but it does fit the pattern of fail recently so I won’t say it’s not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Can we just get some precip that’s not a cold front? Is it even possible LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can we just get some precip that’s not a slightly less warm front? Is it even possible LOL. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 44 minutes ago, nj2va said: Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th. Of course it's an OP run still 9-10 days away, but let's pretend that was likely...how much sense would that make, given the continental struggle for cold? Isn't this the kind of winter where, you'd think, we'd be less likely to see suppressed AND cold, given our struggles with cold air? Like if we were to struggle getting it up here, why would they get it down that that way? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 WB 18z GEFS thru Day 9... laughing hysterically at the snow hole over my neck of the woods...couldn’t draw it better if I tried.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 18z GEFS thru Day 9... laughing hysterically at the snow hole over my neck of the woods...couldn’t draw it better if I tried.... What is that...tetris? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 49 minutes ago, nj2va said: Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th. How does that work? NY State is even struggling to get cold air...the GFS has rain to Buffalo half the friggen waves this run yet the sister para can bleed enough polar air to get snow over the SE states? I get suppression, that is a chance we risk with that block, but SE snow with our cold air struggles? I'm not buying it. The only parallel isn't the GFS sister model, its gotta be the universe im apparently living in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Of course it's an OP run still 9-10 days away, but let's pretend that was likely...it doesn't make sense on one hand, given the struggle for cold. Isn't this the kind of winter where, you'd think, we'd be less likely to see suppressed AND cold, given our struggles with cold air? Like if we were to struggle getting it up here, why would they get it down that that way? Lol Cold doesn’t cause suppression. I was in New England and it was snowing near 0 once. The flow suppresses. Often the two are related and correlated because a suppression means the flow is from the north typically and that in winter usually means cold. But if it’s warm all the way to the Arctic circle like now...it doesn’t matter what direction our air is coming from. But a north flow will still press a storm south. I’m simplifying this a little and leaving out things like shear and compression but that’s the general idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 There are good reasons to doubt the gfs/gefs since its handling one feature differently then all other guidance. But...there is also this. Remember the first strong NAO block 2 weeks ago from 200+ hours out we were worried about a string of cutters. All 3 of those waves ended up weak pathetic squashed waves that didn’t get close to us. And they all shifted south at about 150-200 hours. Then...this is what the wave this week looked like when it was 8 days out. and then at day 6/7 it shifted to this... so one thing arguing for this gfs solution is the undeniable seasonal trend. Just laying all the cards on the table. Still think it’s wrong. But I’ve always been more worried about suppressed then a cutter so seeing it suddenly squash everything at the same magic threshold that’s happened to every wave since the NAO tanked 3 weeks ago wasn’t a warm fuzzy feeling either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The GEFS does agree with the op wrt the stronger NS wave then suppressed southern wave solution for the 25/26. But it actually trended north with the threat around the 28. So much so that more misses are to the north then south with that wave. Which makes sense it would hurt more to miss one storm to the south and one to the north back to back. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You chasin? I wish lol. I only chase if I’m truly desperate or there is a solid chance to see 2ft. This looks more like a 6-10 deal best case, but like I said I hope I can. I always root on the snowiest evolution regardless of where it is. let me also add the gfs is a god awful model and should have 0 bearing on this storm. Hell in December, 48 hours or so out the gfs had a few runs that didn’t have BGM getting 1 flake of snow & they got 40+” lol... That being said I’ll be the first to hop on its bandwagon and get excited when it shows 2 feet so can’t fault anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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