psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Hard to get anything other than -PNA in February lately. .. check this out well, 2018, 2019 and 2020 all had anomaly in same place. Yes but the only shutout was last year with a raging positive AO/NAO. Even 2018 there was that one wave that cut through the ridge and dropped 2-4” across the area. 2019 with just some very weak ridging up top we came close to a decent run. That on wave did cut across and drop 3-6” across the area. And we just missed one other to the north. I got 5” from that one. And early March a couple more waves hit my area but just missed DC. So let’s project that pattern with a little more NAO help. It would be warm at times when the SE ridge flexes. But it should also have opportunities for waves when it is suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: I know where my money is. Look at the last 4 GFS runs for the 26th. Really. The gfs is like spinning the wheel in wheel of fortune. Every spin gives a different result 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 18z Para is a good hit for some of our area it seems.. What are the para's verification scores looking like?? :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Really. The gfs is like spinning the wheel in wheel of fortune. Every spin gives a different result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GooFuS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Pera looks like the euro only slightly further north. Enough to get DC into the goods. I’m still fringed. That’s how I roll up here. Gfs is alone in not washing out the lead wave. Expect it to cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Pera looks like the euro only slightly further north. Enough to get DC into the goods. I’m still fringed. That’s how I roll up here. Gfs is alone in not washing out the lead wave. Expect it to cave Yep. Was just gonna post the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 lol para is 30 straight hours of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: lol para is 30 straight hours of snow Pics or it didn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The GFS insists that the Euro is wrong. Not really,..it trended towards the same progression with the lead energy going ahead and then the main energy coming east. It just has stronger lead wave which is likely bs. It’ll cave para does same thing but is a big va hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well if that doesn't give you pause in trusting this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Well if that doesn't give you pause in trusting this model To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 just looking at the models now for the first time today. I am impressed with how this missed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break euro went a 993mb last night to a 1013 today in one run. I thought models were suppose to be more consistent/accurate in blocking periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break I'll let you be fair those last few runs are jacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Imo you guys are in a great spot right now. You do really well with positively tilted shortwaves/weakening energy. I like your chances with the 29 event too. Good old wave #3. Personally I think that one ends up the strongest. It has the best setup as the first wave ushers in HP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 this is the best pattern since 09-10 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: just looking at the models now for the first time today. I am impressed with how this missed us The initial moisture is from the stj influx. The shortwave weakens imo because it’s stuck between 3 features, the block. (Hp), 29th wave right behind it, and the 50/50 sitting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: this is the best pattern since 09-10 There it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 this is the best pattern since 09-1009-10-2020? Probably so...Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pera looks like the euro only slightly further north. Enough to get DC into the goods. I’m still fringed. That’s how I roll up here. Gfs is alone in not washing out the lead wave. Expect it to cave I wonder if BAMWX is going to tweet the 12z eps change today? I know they do it everytime it goes warm. But here is day 13 change from last night 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, tombo82685 said: I wonder if BAMWX is going to tweet the 12z eps change today? I know they do it everytime it goes warm. But here is day 13 change from last night they only tweet the warmest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I wonder if BAMWX is going to tweet the 12z eps change today? I know they do it everytime it goes warm. But here is day 13 change from last night But if they do make sure it’s with a color code for every half degree F so a 2c day 13 change looks like this huge crazy bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Para is a pummeling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Anyone want to post the para for digital HH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Pretty good GEFS run...definitely a move toward the euro. Primary gets to SWV this run....12z had it to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS is a slight improvement run thru 9.75 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS is a slight improvement run they 9.75 days. These maps always suck 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 3 runs (College Park) 90th percentile: 9 15 12 80th percentile: 6 10 11 70th percentile: 6 6 9 60th percentile: 4 5 8 50th percentile: 3 4 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, Clueless said: Anyone want to post the para for digital HH? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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