WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, frd said: On the mark, I know some don't want to hear this, but the base state shift, combined with warmer waters , elevated jet , hyper West Pac warm pool , very warm temps in the summer and Fall at higher latitudes all seem to be causing this issue in my opinion. Maybe we here in the East at a mid latitude are at a greater disadvantage because of our location downstream of the Pac and the proximity of the warming Atlantic . It’s not just us, it’s the whole damn continent. The winter temperature anomalies (at least as of when I last saw them, probably like 7-10 days ago) were very Nino-ish. Warm Canada and northern US, slightly cool southern US due to an active southern storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s not just us, it’s the whole damn continent. The winter temperature anomalies (at least as of when I last saw them, probably like 7-10 days ago) were very Nino-ish. Warm Canada and northern US, slightly cool southern US due to an active southern storm track. Yes, that is true and very concerning. I believe the warmest year last year, or a tie, per Ryan. Also, the Atlantic ocean temps are very warm, ponding the power of hurricanes this summer as some studies show recurves getting closer and closer to the major cities on the East Coast. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The lack of any real arctic area over a large chunk of the L48 has been something else this winter. No change in sight on the LR GFS heading into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: On the mark, I know some don't want to hear this, but the base state shift, combined with warmer waters , elevated jet , hyper West Pac warm pool , very warm temps in the summer and Fall at higher latitudes all seem to be causing this issue in my opinion. Maybe we here in the East at a mid latitude are at a greater disadvantage because of our location downstream of the Pac and the proximity of the warming Atlantic . Haven't seen it mentioned much lately, but I think a lot of the blame for that this year falls on the SSW. I remember discussion about how it would be very problematic if the cold dump was on the other side of the pole. Well, it was. Which doesn't leave much to tap into on this side. Which is what we've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Like we needed any depressing news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Like we needed any depressing news 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Distilling down our issues this winter seem two fold to me. First, the northern stream has been extremely uncooperative. Either it’s suppressive, or it has phased with the southern stream in a poor position, or (as possibly in the case for next weekend) it fosters ridging ahead of a southern stream low. Now this is not that strange in a Nina, but usually something works out despite that base hostility. Second, the obvious thing is just the utter and shocking lack of cold air. 6z GEFS, as an example, has like 2 days below normal through D15 (this weekend, and we’re talking like 3-5F BN). Remember when this was starting a BN period? There’s just no cold air around. It’s pretty scary and disconcerting how incessantly warm it’s been. This has been very noticeable. As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run. I haven't even been wearing a hat! Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times. What's the coldest temp at DCA this season? Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: This has been very noticeable. As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run. I haven't even been wearing a hat! Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times. What's the coldest temp at DCA this season? Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that? 23F if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 here is a hopeful sigh...first wave washed out 2nd wave--takes southern route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 EURO MJO from NWS site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 38 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Haven't seen it mentioned much lately, but I think a lot of the blame for that this year falls on the SSW. I remember discussion about how it would be very problematic if the cold dump was on the other side of the pole. Well, it was. Which doesn't leave much to tap into on this side. Which is what we've been seeing. I am not sure what to believe now really. Isotherm said there was hope at the end of January . February's tendencies were always to head warmer , nobody really wants to look forward to March at that time I'm thinking of spring and summer activities. When I look back and read HM's older posts I was under the assumption that he thought any sudden stratospheric warming event would favor our region. but possibly I was mistaken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: here is a hopeful sigh...first wave washed out 2nd wave--takes southern route Congrats Chicago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Well, h5 GFS is different already vs 0z/6z with the situation out west...looks like it missed the phase...which could be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Well, h5 GFS is different already vs 0z/6z with the situation out west...looks like it missed the phase...which could be better?Couldn't be any worse right?Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The 00UT EPS still have numerous good hits in the 8-11 day range. The downside is that most of the ensemble members delay the start of any event until next Tuesday - about 24 hours later than the ensembles showed 2 days ago. For College Park, 1/3 of the members are snowless while 1/5 predict a MECS or BECS resulting in an impressive snow mean of 6-7" and a median of 4" Hopefully, we won't end up getting the mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Couldn't be any worse right? Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Of course it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, h5 GFS is different already vs 0z/6z with the situation out west...looks like it missed the phase...which could be better? Yea but instead of bringing the NS across ahead it stalls it out west and pumps the ridge anyways on top of the unphased southern wave. Still not the progression we want. But I suppose a baby step towards a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Light Snow/ice at 174. Looks like it won't hold tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: This has been very noticeable. As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run. I haven't even been wearing a hat! Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times. What's the coldest temp at DCA this season? Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that? I've bottomed out at 23 degrees - at least that's the lowest I've seen. don't have a max/min. The 00 EPS does show below normal high temperatures for a 9 day period beginning next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 So what we are saying is this isn't inside the 3-7 day window yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Rain at 186, but hey...it's less sucky than previous runs...our rain is colder! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Of course it can this already looks way different and more wintrier---good pickup early on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: So what we are saying is this isn't inside the 3-7 day window yet? I suppose we don't even know because there are such big run-to-run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: So what we are saying is this isn't inside the 3-7 day window yet? This is the final, locked in solution. Everybody knows that. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks like a significant ice storm out this way on the 12Z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Yup. A step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: This is the final, locked in solution. Everybody knows that. The more we do this the more Weather53 looks less crazy....relatively speaking of course 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Some positive changes in the 12z suite so far. Glass half full. Not what we want..but closer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: The more we do this the more Weather53 looks less crazy....relatively speaking of course Actually, I agree. I (respectfully) disagree with him wrt modeling...but the yo-yo ing is annoying, but understandable. These things are run 4x per day, so they look as if they are waffling way more than usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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