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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 1/18/2021 at 4:47 AM, Ji said:

CMC is kind of like the para progression but just takes it more north and its a day later

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Cmc isn’t that bad Imo. It’s still 9 days away (especially if it’s the trailing wave). Cmc doesn’t have enough separation between waves to work. But it’s close. That wouldn’t take much adjustment. It’s not like the gfs that wants to drive a ridge to the North Pole and nuke the whole pattern! 

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  On 1/18/2021 at 4:53 AM, Ji said:

anyone see this coming for Jan 31st? except for BamWx. Our winter might be over guys

gfs_T2ma_us_52.png

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  On 1/18/2021 at 4:54 AM, Ji said:

this was 2 days ago

gfs_T2ma_us_58.png

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Yea but that was bone dry remember. We needed in between lol. I wouldn’t freak over a day 13 op run. If the ensembles go that way over the next couple days then yea....it’s going to depend on that ridge link up. If the gfs is right about a complete link of the mid and high latitude ridges like that it’s game over. But nothing else shows that and the gefs is skeptical of that progression. 

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  On 1/18/2021 at 6:43 AM, stormtracker said:

looks like Euro caves toward GFS.  American wins again.

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If that ridge links up that way it doesn’t just wreck the one threat. All the cold from the epo ridge will be trapped west. The trough won’t progress east it will just continue to pump the ridge to its east. 

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  On 1/18/2021 at 6:57 AM, psuhoffman said:

If that ridge links up that way it doesn’t just wreck the one threat. All the cold from the epo ridge will be trapped west. The trough won’t progress east it will just continue to pump the ridge to its east. 

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And...then we have another problem in February, right? (Was asking about that yesterday...will we have to punt the month of Feb?)

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  On 1/18/2021 at 7:04 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

And...then we have another problem in February, right? (Was asking about that yesterday...will we have to punt the month of Feb?)

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Guidance is in flux. I wouldn’t go with anything yet. If the ridge can retrograde west we could still get something to cut through and dive into the east. Depends what the NAO ridge does. If it continues south we’re screwed. If it rotates back north we would be ok. 

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  On 1/18/2021 at 7:11 AM, psuhoffman said:

Guidance is in flux. I wouldn’t go with anything yet. If the ridge can retrograde west we could still get something to cut through and dive into the east. Depends what the NAO ridge does. If it continues south we’re screwed. If it rotates back north we would be ok. 

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I see...but for now, the rest of January looking like a shutout, I take it?

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  On 1/18/2021 at 7:30 AM, stormtracker said:

Same...and it's still in fantasy land.   But even in fantasy land, the consistency is annoying.

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Well oddly enough the eps isn’t that bad. It does have a camp that trended north. But there is also a camp of good hits still and the snow mean increased slightly from 12z.  And the signal for the day 11 threat I’ve liked got better. The pattern dies degrade by day 15 though but it’s not awful. The -NAO holds but we need the western trough to either back off or shift its. It’s kind of in the worst spot and offsetting the NAO by day 15. 

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  On 1/18/2021 at 5:01 AM, psuhoffman said:

Para fringes me so it must be right 

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It certainly doesn't fringe you for 6z. It's still insistent on taking the initial first wave through as a somewhat sheared mess and then trailing up a more coherent system right behind it. Might be apparent on the GEFS too. Speaking of GEFS, it certainly has a fair bit less low pressures that cut for 6z compared to 0z. Hope that the trends there keep up. 

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  On 1/18/2021 at 4:47 AM, psuhoffman said:

A lot of the good ensembles in the Eps and gefs have that progression.  That might be the best way here if that ridge is going to pump like that. A weak wave to knock it down then something behind. We need the trough to eject pieces to prevent the ridge from going ape. 

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This progression is on the 6z para. It’s also on some of the 6z GEFS members. May be our best shot...

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Distilling down our issues this winter seem two fold to me. First, the northern stream has been extremely uncooperative. Either it’s suppressive, or it has phased with the southern stream in a poor position, or (as possibly in the case for next weekend) it fosters ridging ahead of a southern stream low. Now this is not that strange in a Nina, but usually something works out despite that base hostility. Second, the obvious thing is just the utter and shocking lack of cold air. 6z GEFS, as an example, has like 2 days below normal through D15 (this weekend, and we’re talking like 3-5F BN). Remember when this was starting a BN period? There’s just no cold air around. It’s pretty scary and disconcerting how incessantly warm it’s been.

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  On 1/18/2021 at 1:04 PM, WxUSAF said:

Second, the obvious thing is just the utter and shocking lack of cold air. 6z GEFS, as an example, has like 2 days below normal through D15 (this weekend, and we’re talking like 3-5F BN). Remember when this was starting a BN period? There’s just no cold air around. It’s pretty scary and disconcerting how incessantly warm it’s been.

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On the mark, I know some don't want to hear this,  but the base state shift, combined with warmer waters , elevated jet , hyper West Pac warm pool , very warm temps in the summer and Fall at higher latitudes all seem to be causing this issue in my opinion.  Maybe we here in the East at a mid latitude are at a greater disadvantage because of our location downstream of the Pac and the proximity of the warming Atlantic .

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