psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 11:58 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Still funny when they hit it on the nose, though, date and all (like I said, they hit last month on the nose...both Almanacs had the storm)...must be some formula they use. Doesn't seem like they're just shooting in the dark...to my eyes it seems to be a certain non-zero percentage they get something right, lol Expand Of course it’s non zero. If I made a random prediction for every day of the year I would hit several times by random chance also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:03 AM, psuhoffman said: Of course it’s non zero. If I made a random prediction for every day of the year I would hit several times by random chance also. Expand We've noticed 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:03 AM, psuhoffman said: Of course it’s non zero. If I made a random prediction for every day of the year I would hit several times by random chance also. Expand You think they do it randomly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:08 AM, Maestrobjwa said: You think they do it randomly? Expand I have no idea. I’m just saying objective studies of it’s accuracy shows it has no validity. Their seasonal forecasts have a slightly better track record and show some skill above just random chance. But their day to day forecasts do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 10:39 PM, psuhoffman said: See that spike of cold down right to my house. Finally a Fing model that knows what’s up. Maybe I need to give it more love. Expand Speed up that 1032 high up north and you got something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:08 AM, Maestrobjwa said: You think they do it randomly? Expand This should probably move to banter, but I feel obligated to respond as I'm studying data science. The most often-cited resource on this is: Walsh, John E.; David Allen (October 1981). "Testing the Farmer's Almanac". Weatherwise. The findings of the above study (University of Illinois) were that monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts were 52% and 51% accurate over a 5-year study period, respectively. Given an anticipated random accuracy of 50%, this suggests that their method (if any) does not significantly increase the forecast accuracy above simple guessing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 11:27 PM, psuhoffman said: I stubbed my toe. Is that relevant? Expand Depends. Which toe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:36 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: Depends. Which toe? Expand All of them. It was impressive!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:05 AM, leesburg 04 said: We've noticed Expand +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:47 AM, psuhoffman said: All of them. It was impressive!!! Expand If the models runs improve, you will be expected to stump your toes every day through the end of Februray. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7. Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:54 AM, Weather Will said: WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7. Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January. Expand Is "WB's JB" = Joe Bastardi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:47 AM, psuhoffman said: All of them. It was impressive!!! Expand In that case all toes swollen, so no choice but to wear flip flops. Winter cancel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:54 AM, Weather Will said: WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7. Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January. Expand Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:57 AM, cbmclean said: Is "WB's JB" = Joe Bastardi? Yes. Weather Bell’s Joe Bastardi. Must mean the pattern is on schedule if he’s not barking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:58 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December Expand In fairness, he said "cooler" December. As in cooler than July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:54 AM, Weather Will said: WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7. Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 There's so many people out there making predictions you can pretty much find any prediction you want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:58 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December Expand I think that December was less than 2 degrees above normal at DCA. Cooler than January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:54 AM, cbmclean said: If the models runs improve, you will be expected to stump your toes every day through the end of Februray. Expand Sounds like a normal day to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 1:02 AM, frd said: Expand I was referencing a video he put out this afternoon. In fairness, he did not say to give up on the winter. It just seems like things are not lining up the way we had hoped...but I won’t give up for another eight weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:54 AM, Weather Will said: WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7. Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January. Expand I stopped watching his videos regularly years ago but yesterday I threw one on out of curiosity and he outlined the same progression I laid out a few days ago. It honestly made me feel less confident in my prediction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Ok back on topic...no one noticed the rather significant improvement on the 18z Gefs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Seems to be a lot of weather chaos at the moment...at least there are things to track this year unlike last... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:54 AM, Weather Will said: WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7. Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January. Expand And I’m not sure what this is in reference too but I’ve seen his tweets shared on my Twitter feed comparing the pattern to 2010 several times and I think I remember a comment where he said he would be shocked if DC to Boston wasnt above normal snow by Mid Feb do not sure how not bullish that is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 1:09 AM, psuhoffman said: Ok back on topic...no one noticed the rather significant improvement on the 18z Gefs??? Expand When is the next Spin the GFS wheel? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 1:11 AM, Cobalt said: Expand This hand is being over played imo. The epo ridge is going up for about 6 days (instead of 10) but the extended days were at like day 13-16. That’s not reliable range. The models did get the epo ridge going up correct just had it linger too long. But frankly an extended epo ridge is unlikely in a Nina with a strong Pac jet. The play was always to get some cold into the pattern then hope we do better with a colder base state to start with a blocking pattern. Anyone expecting weeks of a epo NAO ridge bridge was crazy. If we get a week of epo ridge to inject true cold into N America then an eastern trough after and it’s still not cold enough I don’t want to hear anymore crap about the pattern. How many things do we expect to go right AND to stay lined up for THAT long. It doesn’t work that way. If we need 15 things to all be perfect AND to stay that way for weeks and weeks...well don’t hold your breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 1:11 AM, Cobalt said: Expand I don;t have access to any EPO forecasts. So what's the current state? In PSU's recent progression e-mails he has mentioned an upcoming -EPO event which will unfortunately dump into the west. Is that not happening now? And as much as these guys annoy me, they have been correct the last several years about several advertised -EPO periods that never materialized (but man they seem to make a special effort to do so as pompously and arrogantly as possible). ETA: I see my question was answered before I even asked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 12:58 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December Expand December was just plain average here in most of NC. But that's actually a huge win compared to the last five years and also how things were looking in many of the seasonal forecasts in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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