jaydreb Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 GFS and Euro are worlds apart for next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Yeah, its amazing how different the Euro and GFS are. And the way things have been going lately, we know which model is going to cave. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't remember December 2009 being that cold, but the second February 2010 storm was quite cold. I also remember 1996 and 2003 being quite cold at times. 1996 it was in the mid teens and snowing. 2003 the temperature fluctuated, but I remember it being in the high teens and sleeting in College Park toward the end of the storm. Don't think 2016 got that cold until the deform. Careful to differentiate between a temporary cold moment due to dynamics and a truly expensive cold airmass. The Feb 10, 2010 storm was cold under the very intense mid and upper level lows that passed right over us. But that storm mixed with rain/sleet at the start all the way to central MD and it was 34 despite 2 feet is snowcover the day before and 38 despite 3 feet the day after at BWI. The temps did drop into the low to mid 20s with a ferocious wind during the height but that was dynamics driven not indicative of an arctic airmass. You remove the snowcover and storms and that week would have had highs of 40-50 degrees. ETA: 2003 had some true cold air masses but it was a moderate modoki nino with a once every 20 years type stable perfect pacific pattern. Yea that would work but it’s super rare and no chance in a Nina and not even a good bet in a nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, its amazing how different the Euro and GFS are. And the way things have been going lately, we know which model is going to cave. If COVID wasn’t going on I would seriously try to organize a group therapy snow field trip right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: If COVID wasn’t going on I would seriously try to organize a group therapy snow field trip right now. Looks like we'll all have to travel to see snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 CMC is with the Euro. Anybody got the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: CMC is with the Euro. Anybody got the JMA? Don’t think it goes out far enough. Which should tell us something lol eta: I don’t blame anyone for the frustration. I’m full tilt now too. My full tilt just might not be as emotionally unstable as Ji’s but no way would I ever be bothering to analyze 200 hour operational (or even ensembles for that matter) if I wasn’t so anxious for us to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: CMC is with the Euro. Anybody got the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Not lookin GFS like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Not lookin GFS like. Not that extrapolating the JMA is smart or really using it at all lol but that look should deliver atleast a front end thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Not lookin GFS like. See that spike of cold down right to my house. Finally a Fing model that knows what’s up. Maybe I need to give it more love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Para ran again at 18z. Kinda weird but maybe could call it a blend of the euro and op gfs. Sends a weak leading wave through the lakes to torch our boundary layer, but then the main low rides up the OH river. It could go either way. It’s all dependent on exactly how much mid latitude ridging there is ahead of the western trough and if it can punch a hole in the westerly flow under the block. And the differences are way too subtle to say imo. Of course recent history says go with the solution that screws us the most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 @CAPE fwiw (nothing) DC already has 2” by that last JMA panel according to the total QPF and obviously would still be snowing for a while after given that temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It could go either way. It’s all dependent on exactly how much mid latitude ridging there is ahead of the western trough and if it can punch a hole in the westerly flow under the block. And the differences are way too subtle to say imo. Of course recent history says go with the solution that screws us the most. That was 12z actually. 18z looks like a weaker version of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE fwiw (nothing) DC already has 2” by that last JMA panel according to the total QPF and obviously would still be snowing for a while after given that temp profile. I forgot WB has the JMA lol. I never look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Number 1 day 8 pattern analog is Jan 28 1979. Number 2 is Jan 18 1966. Both immediately proceeded multiple snowstorms. This is not a pattern problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I forgot WB has the JMA lol. I never look at it. Me either. I actually figured that by just adding what the qpf increased by on the last frame on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That was 12z actually. 18z looks like a weaker version of the op. The para is an upgrade but still based on the same physics. This seems to be a pretty substantive difference with how they handle the longwave pattern. Not shocking the para agrees with the older gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Number 1 day 8 pattern analog is Jan 28 1979. Number 2 is Jan 18 1966. Both immediately proceeded multiple snowstorms. This is not a pattern problem. Any big storms those years? Didn't 1979 have a HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The para is an upgrade but still based on the same physics. This seems to be a pretty substantive difference with how they handle the longwave pattern. Not shocking the para agrees with the older gfs. It seems like the Para had a super wacky evolution actually. It drives a low through the great lakes around the 25th (earlier than the GFS does), and right behind it a wave impacts Central Virginia on the 26th. I guess the whole point with that is that the evolution of the storm isnt even close to set in storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Any big storms those years? Didn't 1979 have a HECS? Both had a string of significant snows after those dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easter Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Hmm... Farmers Almanac calls for a blizzard the second week of February. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The para is an upgrade but still based on the same physics. This seems to be a pretty substantive difference with how they handle the longwave pattern. Not shocking the para agrees with the older gfs. Well it was weaker because it held some energy back and then gives VA a nice snowstorm next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Nor'easter said: Hmm... Farmers Almanac calls for a blizzard the second week of February. How the wooly worms look? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Well it was weaker because it held some energy back and then gives VA a nice snowstorm next Wednesday. 12z cmc kinda did that but the initial wave didn’t cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I stubbed my toe. Is that relevant? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS...through Day 9...few nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, Nor'easter said: Hmm... Farmers Almanac calls for a blizzard the second week of February. 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: How the wooly worms look? I like to keep score on them...they nailed both the December 16th storm, Christmas cold front, and the NYE front. Not so much this month...no snow forecast, but it's not "very cold", lol I always find it amusing when they do get it right...not sure what formula they use to try and guess! But I don't take them too seriously...just a bit of a "huh...we'll see". But surprising was last year...not even they predicted much snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I like to keep score on them...they nailed both the December 16th storm, Christmas cold front, and the NYE front. Not so much this month...no snow forecast, but it's not "very cold", lol I always find it amusing when they do get it right...not sure what formula they use to try and guess! But I don't take them too seriously...just a bit of a "huh...we'll see" Scientific analysis of their day to day forecasts show they have no more accuracy than random chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Scientific analysis of their day to day forecasts show they have no more accuracy than random chance. Still funny when they hit it on the nose, though, date and all (like I said, they hit last month on the nose...both Almanacs had the storm)...must be some formula they use. Doesn't seem like they're just shooting in the dark...to my eyes it seems to be a certain non-zero percentage they get something right, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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