BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Maybe we should close this thread in favor of d3-7 and d7-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:15 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Note the differences here. Euro is actually all southern stream, gfs phases NS in. Expand I can't see your arrows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:21 PM, stormtracker said: I can't see your arrows Expand My bad, this better? 2 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I feel like it’s almost a lock the EPS won’t agree with the op. It would be just too much good fortune of it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 6:57 PM, stormtracker said: Snowing at 234...and pretty good tooLol 234Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:32 PM, losetoa6 said: Eps clustering Expand That's a massive area of HP in Canada. This might end up being the Jakkel storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:32 PM, losetoa6 said: Eps clustering Expand Do none of them ride the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:40 PM, losetoa6 said: Looks like the mean favors a primary up into Kentucky then transfer. Still clusters with no storm or misses se . An improvement over 0z imo though Expand KY is good. Helps grease the skids for the transfer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:42 PM, BristowWx said: KY is good. Helps grease the skids for the transfer Expand Don't a lot of our good mecs in the past that have transferred energy do so over KY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 @poolz1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 It’s way too soon to be worried about this...but wanted to point something out that can be useful when we are closer to an event. There are lots of variables but one factor that helped us survive a primary track to our west was this. As the system approaches this looks precarious at a glance. The mid level boundary isn’t that far to our SW. But look at the 850 temps to our south and southwest. 1-2 c mostly. Now look at the humidity. that whole area is bone dry. All that air will advect north ahead of the low. As it saturates and lifts north it will be plenty cold enough. The actual boundary of air that wouldn’t support snow that would have to advect north is much further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Recovery questionable @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx The GEFS 35-day shows the point of uncertainty (abrupt spread growth) in the 10 hPa evolution around Jan 25-30. Some members continue to recover the vortex toward average, while others decelerate or even go for another U reversal. I think this is a point to keep eyes on! 12:58 PM · Jan 16, 2021·Twitter Web App Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 As HM stated a while back, seems to be moving up in time now from the start 20 to 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:48 PM, frd said: Recovery questionable @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx The GEFS 35-day shows the point of uncertainty (abrupt spread growth) in the 10 hPa evolution around Jan 25-30. Some members continue to recover the vortex toward average, while others decelerate or even go for another U reversal. I think this is a point to keep eyes on! 12:58 PM · Jan 16, 2021·Twitter Web App Expand Would SSW be below 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:06 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The low rides the spine of the apps without a high over New England. How is that snow? Expand 1. The low moves up west of the apps then transfers to eastern NC 2. there is a banana high over the top 3. read my post about the dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Me like even if it is the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:50 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Would SSW be below 0? Expand Yes, we have gone to Easterlies twice so far . Two days ago, as psu stated, we were a a record negative for the date . Yesterday was close I believe by 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Pretty 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:54 PM, frd said: Pretty Expand Long way to go for just a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:48 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s way too soon to be worried about this...but wanted to point something out that can be useful when we are closer to an event. There are lots of variables but one factor that helped us survive a primary track to our west was this. As the system approaches this looks precarious at a glance. The mid level boundary isn’t that far to our SW. But look at the 850 temps to our south and southwest. 1-2 c mostly. Now look at the humidity. that whole area is bone dry. All that air will advect north ahead of the low. As it saturates and lifts north it will be plenty cold enough. The actual boundary of air that wouldn’t support snow that would have to advect north is much further south. Expand Just the way it's supposed to work with a west based block and a 50-50 low. We have all the features in the right places. No high sliding off the east coast with return flow wrecking the airmass in front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 This is pretty close to textbook. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:54 PM, frd said: Pretty Expand That's the best eps snow mean we have had since the December storm. GREAT trends today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:51 PM, psuhoffman said: 1. The low moves up west of the apps then transfers to eastern NC 2. there is a banana high over the top 3. read my post about the dry air Expand Excellent post sir. The dry air part was money and probably overlooked by many..or just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 7:59 PM, CAPE said: This is pretty close to textbook. Expand Details please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 We are gonna end up getting hit twice before February. The setup is just so good. And there appear to be plenty of vorts through the rest of the month. Just hang on another week everyone. It is going to happen. Now give me some weenies. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 8:01 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Details please Expand Kind of self explanatory. The high pressure is where we want it, the low is off the Maritimes where we want it. No ridge in the WA. Cold/dry air draining down in front of the storm. Evap cooling is a beautiful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 eh its hard to buy any model even a few days out. friday/friday night strong so called cold front comes through temps will be colder but by only a few. today 45 yesterday 44 so um, yeah cant even get the next day right lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 8:06 PM, Ruin said: eh its hard to buy any model even a few days out. friday/friday night strong so called cold front comes through temps will be colder but by only a few. today 45 yesterday 44 so um, yeah cant even get the next day right lol. Expand So don't buy it. We are analyzing the runs though, because that's the point of this thread. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 How is mid February looking?Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 8:06 PM, Ruin said: eh its hard to buy any model even a few days out. friday/friday night strong so called cold front comes through temps will be colder but by only a few. today 45 yesterday 44 so um, yeah cant even get the next day right lol. Expand No one is taking the surface maps as gospel. It is about the NH setup. And it is ripe for us to get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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