psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Gefs does not agree with the op fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Hour 384 GFS 1000 miles east of Florida is that out first tropical wave lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Gefs does not agree with the op fwiw It never does but the op is blowing it way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 What was it someone said a while back? This is a 'close the blinds' pattern until the 21st? Probably sound advice and a good idea for those of us burned out. Take a break and check for something trackable in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs does not agree with the op fwiw It never does but the op is blowing it way Ensemble verification is better at that range. But I want to see this show up in op runs soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Cmc ensemble doesn’t agree with suppressed either. Actually more rain then suppressed members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Euro is actually pretty interesting for the Thursday event.. trending colder and has blue over a fair bit of the subforum at hr 135, albeit light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Epic 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Well back to the 10 day Euro looking promising. Now only 10 days away! Wouldn't even be surprised if it tried to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 EPS actually took a bit of a step back from 12z wrt the threat on the 26th, but it makes sense given that the 12z mean was incredibly anomalous, but it points out the amount of chances we're probably gonna get, and is already showing a signal for a threat around the 30th Banana high showing up nicely too Considering those are both means centered around day 14, it shows the kind of pattern we're in. Even if we miss out on the 26th threat, as others have said this seems like the type of pattern where if we get a threat into the medium range, we'll be tracking the storm after the storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Also in regards to true cold seeming so far out.. true cold is already on range within day 7. Baby steps... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The flow just seems too zonal for anything substantial. A dusting-2” type? Yeah I could see that right now. Idk this zonal look has been showing up for a while. Might have to chase some LES when one of these NS waves rotates around the block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Outside of the potential around the 26th, plenty of action on the GEFS members for the last couple days of the month. Pretty favorable h5 look at that time with a bit of ridging out west and some relaxation in the -NAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 WB 6Z GEFS....through Day 10 sums up January....I would not get hopes up until we see something on the ensembles inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Outside of the potential around the 26th, plenty of action on the GEFS members for the last couple days of the month. Pretty favorable h5 look at that time with a bit of ridging out west and some relaxation in the -NAO. Loving that look last few days of January into early Feb. Thats the period that holds the most potential the entire season once things slow down and relax. Until then we are playing with fire with the NS shred factory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 That look doesn’t inspire me. It screams zonal flow as wentz mentioned above. Anytime we rely on NS waves to cross over the Allegheny to deliver us snow, we lose lift and moisture and are left with flurries or maybe an inch (if were lucky. We need our block to retro East a bit and allow a PNA yo build. Cycle that block back down as a wave gains steam out of the central plains/gulf coast and we’re in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: That look doesn’t inspire me. It screams zonal flow as wentz mentioned above. Anytime we rely on NS waves to cross over the Allegheny to deliver us snow, we lose lift and moisture and are left with flurries or maybe an inch (if were lucky. We need our block to retro East a bit and allow a PNA yo build. Cycle that block back down as a wave gains steam out of the central plains/gulf coast and we’re in business. Did you consider anything else, or did you arrive at this conclusion by glancing at a single h5 height panel? There are some pretty significant changes depicted between now and that period, which you aren't going to see on that h5 mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: That look doesn’t inspire me. It screams zonal flow as wentz mentioned above. Anytime we rely on NS waves to cross over the Allegheny to deliver us snow, we lose lift and moisture and are left with flurries or maybe an inch (if were lucky. We need our block to retro East a bit and allow a PNA yo build. Cycle that block back down as a wave gains steam out of the central plains/gulf coast and we’re in business. That is not a zonal flow look on a smoothed LR means at 354hrs as posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 00 UT EPS suggests that our best chance of snow is in a 2-day window beginning a week from Monday evening and ending a week from Wednesday evening. The EPS mean for College Park is 0.7" or greater for 4 consecutive 12-hour periods; the 2nd best its been this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 “Loving that look last few days of January into early Feb. Thats the period that holds the most potential the entire season once things slow down and relax. Until then we are playing with fire with the NS shred factory“ you all literally keep moving this period back. That’s a really bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: The flow just seems too zonal for anything substantial. A dusting-2” type? Yeah I could see that right now. Idk this zonal look has been showing up for a while. Might have to chase some LES when one of these NS waves rotates around the block Are you talking about the next week, or going forward in general? The Pac jet is in the process of relaxing, the EPO is transitioning to negative, and much colder air is going to be injected into Canada- and with the longwave pattern as advertised, that cold will bleed south and east. With that, the baroclinic boundary will be much closer. In addition, a TPV lobe will be on our side- you can see it on the panel I posted. It also looks like the block will relax some. These factors should increase the chances for shortwaves to amplify (and not dampen) more than the current pattern will allow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: That look doesn’t inspire me. It screams zonal flow as wentz mentioned above. Anytime we rely on NS waves to cross over the Allegheny to deliver us snow, we lose lift and moisture and are left with flurries or maybe an inch (if were lucky. We need our block to retro East a bit and allow a PNA yo build. Cycle that block back down as a wave gains steam out of the central plains/gulf coast and we’re in business. FWIW at 354 hours, I agree with you. There is a hint at a inter-mountain west ridge that could spawn a NS LP to amplify over the Plains. However, that west-based -NAO will destroy anything coming east. Also, the Gulf and Atlantic moisture supply is shut off. Totally NS dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: “Loving that look last few days of January into early Feb. Thats the period that holds the most potential the entire season once things slow down and relax. Until then we are playing with fire with the NS shred factory“ you all literally keep moving this period back. That’s a really bad sign. Realistically the potential good period always looked to begin around mid month, so here we are. Lets let things play out over the next several days. We can monitor the identified "threat windows" on the guidance. They will either get stronger, disappear, or get kicked down the road. It could completely fail, Feb might end up transitioning to a more typical Nina, and the Panic room and futility thread will be rockin'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to “watch the period starting on the tenth” ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs” ”the period around the 20th is ripe” ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th” and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe. larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal. this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles... hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving. also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell... 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to “watch the period starting on the tenth” ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs” ”the period around the 20th is ripe” ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th” and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe. larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal. this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles... hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving. also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell... I understand the frustration. I didn't even get a flake or a sleet pellet here in the Dec storm. That being said, you could have posted this in banter or the Panic room. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to “watch the period starting on the tenth” ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs” ”the period around the 20th is ripe” ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th” and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe. larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal. this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles... hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving. also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell... It really sucks being a bengals fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: I understand the frustration. I didn't even get a flake or a sleet pellet here in the Dec storm. That being said, you could have posted this in banter or the Panic room. Why? It's all relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to “watch the period starting on the tenth” ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs” ”the period around the 20th is ripe” ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th” and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe. larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal. this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles... hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving. also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell... Well some of us less knowledgeable posters have been saying January 20th and later for quite some time. I recognize the "indices" might have looked good but nothing said snow was imminent it was all speculation and whining and weenie hope. It was clear we had no cold air and were relying on luck. Texas and the deep south got the luck...maybe we are next but if the cold materializes I think we might....but I wouldn't count on it just because an index says so....nothing ever says it's supposed to snow. That said I get being frustrated because it hasn't snowed but not because someone said a pattern looked good or thought it could snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 It's tough to get any winter storm in the East with a pna about to tank like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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