Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 12:41 AM, CAPE said: 14 or so acceptable hits in there to my eye, with several biggies. Not bad. Expand but you know your getting a combo of P26 and P11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I remember shoveling the 6+ inches of snow on the March 2018 storm. Was definitely surprised to be in the higher totals area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 12:41 AM, CAPE said: 14 or so acceptable hits in there to my eye, with several biggies. Not bad. Expand Now let’s see if we can increase this over the next week...I will be frustrated if there is not a threat showing up inside 10 days on the deterministic models by next weekend. Until then, will be patient.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 12:47 AM, Ji said: but you know your getting a combo of P26 and P11 Expand Would have to go with the hot hand- anything that shows no snow lol. That is almost all post 25th though so its a pretty good signal for the 25th -30th. Lets see if it holds, disappears, or kicks the can. We will be looking at Feb here shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 10:37 PM, CAPE said: I think that one was a general 6-10. I think I had 7 or so here. Expand 4.75” here in Burke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Can we get some angel choir music??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Stay the course, the forum will cash in over the next 2-3 weeks. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 1:29 AM, psuhoffman said: Can we get some angel choir music??? Expand Not angels, but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I think it's amazing that it's mid-January and we have a -NAO and it's raining, and it's not even close. 50*. +PNA isn't getting far south anymore lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 As psu used this image in a previous post, but wanted to point out this is an improvement from a couple days ago. Basically the - NAM states not deteriorating . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Another significant change in the long range , a rather broad vortex in a N S elongated fashion is predicted versus what was forecasted a few days ago as a solidified , more organized tighter vortex, mostly over Eurasia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 2:52 AM, frd said: As psu used this image in a previous post, but wanted to point out this is an improvement from a couple days ago. Basically the - NAM states not deteriorating . Expand All the long range guidance has consistently tried to break down the -NAM state around day 20 all cold season since if flipped late November. Sometimes it makes it as close as about day 15 then suddenly gets pushed back out to day 20-25 again. It will eventually flip but I see no signs its eminent yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Lastly, another huge change from what was forecasted the last 14 days . Movement towards Northern NA versus Siberia. This starts near hour 240 and speeding up from there. https://stratobserve.com/fcst_ell_vert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 2:56 AM, frd said: Another significant change in the long range , a rather broad vortex in a N S elongated fashion is predicted versus what was forecasted a few days ago as a solidified , more organized tighter vortex, mostly over Eurasia. Expand Is that good bad or indifferent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 This goes along with the above post regarding the GFS NH polar vortex ellipse profile animation . Judah's animation matches the animation form stratobserve.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 3:02 AM, cbmclean said: Is that good bad or indifferent? Expand Good , weaker vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 2:28 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: I think it's amazing that it's mid-January and we have a -NAO and it's raining, and it's not even close. 50*. +PNA isn't getting far south anymore lol Expand Well we are basically tracking blocking with zero cold air makes you wonder what’s going on? Guess the cold air is on the other side of the poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 1:34 AM, psuhoffman said: Expand I have not given up yet on something around the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Hope nobody gets encouraged at 162 GFS. Bout to head right into the cheese grater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 First wave going to be a Deep South snow it looks like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 4:17 AM, psuhoffman said: First wave going to be a Deep South snow it looks like lol Expand Brutal. Looks good for Nrn MS/AL/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 4:17 AM, stormtracker said: Hope nobody gets encouraged at 162 GFS. Bout to head right into the cheese grater. Expand Yea it’s a good setup for a snow in the Deep South. Way way way too much suppression for here. We need the boundary to be relaxing not pressing as a wave approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I am looking at the wave behind it at 186... let's see if the energy gets kicked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 @stormtracker what we really need would be one of those NS SWs diving down out of western Canada to dig a bit more and phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 4:26 AM, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker what we really need would be one of those NS SWs diving down out of western Canada to dig a bit more and phase. Expand And at first, I thought it was a possibility. Was looking at the same thing. But of course,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 It’s not going to do it this run but this would be a candidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/16/2021 at 4:26 AM, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker what we really need would be one of those NS SWs diving down out of western Canada to dig a bit more and phase. Expand lol, block relaxes a little...rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 We might need to wait for that western trough to retrograde a bit more to allow that ridge to shift west so something can dig more into the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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