stormtracker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It was 11 yesterday lol. Honestly though that period between the 24-30 looks really good. I was never invested in the 22. Too many flaws. But if we start to see degradation to the look from the possibly 2/3 waves in the 24-30 time period then I will be more frustrated. That’s been my target and when the progression made sense for a while I’m sticking too it. I know...I was discouraged earlier but I'm away from the ledge. I told everyone to hold on one more week. We can do this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I know...I was discouraged earlier but I'm away from the ledge. I told everyone to hold on one more week. We can do this. Problem is we thought we signed up for a sprint and it turned out to be marathon. But I did not run 26 miles just to lay down a couple hundred yards from the finish line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I was also questioning the negativity earlier. The pattern doesn't really change until we get high pressure dominating in Canada. That doesn't happen until the northern stream low moves through days 5-6. There's been nothing but low pressure up there since the pattern broke down after the mid-Dec storm. That's a direct result of the Pacific torch but all of the ensembles have been forecasting a complete reversal and hasn't been pushed back in time for several days. That's a direct result of the block and favorable changes in the Pacific as the flow blasting onshore weakens and reverses. That should give every wave a better track and cold air to work with. Also, I was compiling some climo for MBY from my own records and nearby CoCoRAHS which should represent most of the near-beltway suburbs since 2005. Pretty much every year has featured a 3-6 week stretch without ANY accumulating (>T) snow in mid winter...usually from mid-Dec to mid-Jan, or early-late Jan, or didn't even get going until mid-January. So this isn't a new or unusual pattern. Maybe different if you go further back but it's typical the past 15 years, not just since 2016. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Problem is we thought we signed up for a sprint and it turned out to be marathon. But I did not run 26 miles just to lay down a couple hundred yards from the finish line. Like you and I and some others have been saying, blocking patterns require some patience, and even then they don't always pay off. Well they normally do in a Nino, and often in a big way. Not as much in a Nina. We are at the midpoint of Jan, and I believe the conventional wisdom was any snow up until now would have been gravy. Ok, so no gravy... Someone else can continue with this metaphor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: We are at the midpoint of Jan, and I believe the conventional wisdom was any snow up until now would have been gravy. Ok, so no gravy... Someone else can continue with this metaphor. You are going need a larger gravy ladle. Damn and some freshly ground black pepper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 HH fellas...pop the cork on the blue for some blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Like you and I and some others have been saying, blocking patterns require some patience, and even then they don't always pay off. Well they normally do in a Nino, and often in a big way. Not as much in a Nina. We are at the midpoint of Jan, and I believe the conventional wisdom was any snow up until now would have been gravy. Ok, so no gravy... Someone else can continue with this metaphor.We just can’t get away from biscuits and gravy, can we? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, frd said: You are going need a larger gravy ladle. Damn and some freshly ground black pepper. I was thinking more along the lines of, who the fucck needs gravy if you are eating a quality piece of beef. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 HH fellas...pop the cork on the blue for some blue Digital blue...the most sought out blue since breaking badSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Like you and I and some others have been saying, blocking patterns require some patience, and even then they don't always pay off. Well they normally do in a Nino, and often in a big way. Not as much in a Nina. We are at the midpoint of Jan, and I believe the conventional wisdom was any snow up until now would have been gravy. Ok, so no gravy... Someone else can continue with this metaphor.We didn't even get our utensils Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Ji said: We didn't even get our utensils Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk At least you got a napkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 WB 12Z EPS. Patience for another 10 days in order, hopefully there will not be another delay....looks good beyond 10 days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: Like you and I and some others have been saying, blocking patterns require some patience, and even then they don't always pay off. Well they normally do in a Nino, and often in a big way. Not as much in a Nina. We are at the midpoint of Jan, and I believe the conventional wisdom was any snow up until now would have been gravy. Ok, so no gravy... Someone else can continue with this metaphor. True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 1996: high bar...nuff said March 1999: several storms January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever! Feb 2006: 1 MECS Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 1996: high bar...nuff said March 1999: several storms January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever! Feb 2006: 1 MECS Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck You could have stopped at TRUE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: You could have stopped at TRUE. That wasn’t for you. Just so someone doesn’t think a Nina means blocking won’t work. Its obviously muted compared to a nino but that doesn’t mean we don’t usually snow. You know that. Just trying to stop a run of panic posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: HH Day 6 Gfs 24 hours ago a se ridge One extreme to the other.. but an expected shift given the advertised pattern. We need something a bit in between though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Day 6 Gfs . This is pretty sig medium range changes . 24 hours ago a se ridge and less blocking yep....means supressed instead of cutter. still no blue for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Tasty John Homenuk Recent EPS runs have trended stronger with Greenland blocking in the 5-10 day range again - now a 3 sigma event. There are also hints that a northern stream disturbance will be forced underneath it Days 7-10. If correct, would open door to a Mid Atlantic/Northeast winter storm. 3:14 PM · Jan 15, 2021· 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That wasn’t for you. Just so someone doesn’t think a Nina means blocking won’t work. Its obviously muted compared to a nino but that doesn’t mean we don’t usually snow. You know that. Just trying to stop a run of panic posts. I get it, but at some point the masses need to be able to read between the lines when something isn't stated in a perfectly explicit manner. Kinda tired of putting disclaimers/qualifiers on every post to prevent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We’ve had 0.18” of precip in Winchester since Jan 1. You can draw your own conclusions from that. You haven’t had much rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Happy hour mischief? Much better setup for the event the EPS was signaling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Happy hour mischief? Much better setup for the event the EPS was signaling Tired of seeing your phone about to die. You can email these images to yourself and post them here. Only takes like 30 seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Gonna get crushed, but nice trend towards EPS and nothing like OP euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Thanks for the breakdown . I'm curious though of the March 2018. I'll have to look at my records but I'm thinking I got 14 inches here from that storm and more further north . I'd think MECS not SECS but maybe I got the wrong year . I think that one was a general 6-10. I think I had 7 or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Light blue at 234hrs! 8 weeks of blocking pays off 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 well here is the gravy .. eta- The beef went south lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I think that one was a general 6-10. I think I had 7 or so here. The equinox storm? I got just over 7”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Tired of seeing your phone about to die. You can email these images to yourself and post them here. Only takes like 30 seconds. Ain’t nobody got time for that. Haha, there’s about the same odds of me plugging in my phone before bed as a 2 ft dc snowstorm. this was a solid GFS run. It looked more like the euro early on and focuses on that same wave coming out of the southwest that the EPS did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'll have to dust off my trapper keeper and look but I'm 99% sure I got around 14" March 20th and bigger totals north . I got 15 but never was more than 12 on the ground at one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'll have to dust off my trapper keeper and look but I'm 99% sure I got around 14" March 20th and bigger totals north . You might be right, according to Mr faith in the flakes' lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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