Chris78 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 11:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have. Expand Agree. With the blocking regime and entering into prime time if I end up with that I think I'll be a bit disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 11:47 PM, osfan24 said: Same. You get an -AO and -NAO for this long, especially now that we've gone several winters without a HECS, I expect a HECS and then some. Expand Things aren't necessarily the same as they once were.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 11:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have. Expand The weekly ensemble members are not run at high resolution. They won’t estimate things like meso banding and that’s 10-1 which if you and I get a flush hit you know ratios would be higher. The gradient to the NW of 95 is NEVER as sharp as reality would be on those because a lot of what causes our enhanced totals are meso features (upslope and higher ratios and banding) a low res ensemble member won’t see. Also a 50 member ensemble will always skew towards the mean by outlier members. It works both ways. I would say the same if the pattern looked awful and it showed a 3-4” mean. Thats actually a shutout look. Just a few outliers skewing towards the mean. What I’m saying is it’s the axis and anomaly that matters more then the total. Snow maps aren’t even close to the best way to analyze the pattern but you can take hints from them if you know how to interpret them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 11:48 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Not me. After how this winter has been I’d sign off on 12” in a heartbeat, and I live in Philly. Just give it to me in one storm and I’m good to go. Expand I agree. 12" on top of the 2.5" I've gotten so far this year would be around the most snow my area has seen in a La Nina in my lifetime (no 95-96 or 99-00 to throw in there of course), and we'd obviously have a chance to get some SECSY/HECSY action with the Modoki Mod Nino + low solar next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Btw weeks ago we laughed about the weeklies showing a great pattern but no snow. Well.....just saying if we’re going to blast the long range guidance when it’s wrong we need to acknowledge when it nails something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I would sign on the dotted line for 2 (even low end) warning level events through Feb at this point. We are in a motherfuccking rut man. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 11:59 PM, CAPE said: I would sign on the dotted line for 2 (even low end) warning level events through Feb at this point. We are in a motherfuccking rut man. Expand We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 11:55 PM, psuhoffman said: The weekly ensemble members are not run at high resolution. They won’t estimate things like meso banding and that’s 10-1 which if you and I get a flush hit you know ratios would be higher. The gradient to the NW of 95 is NEVER as sharp as reality would be on those because a lot of what causes our enhanced totals are meso features (upslope and higher ratios and banding) a low res ensemble member won’t see. Also a 50 member ensemble will always skew towards the mean by outlier members. It works both ways. I would say the same if the pattern looked awful and it showed a 3-4” mean. Thats actually a shutout look. Just a few outliers skewing towards the mean. What I’m saying is it’s the axis and anomaly that matters more then the total. Snow maps aren’t even close to the best way to analyze the pattern but you can take hints from them if you know how to interpret them. Expand Another plus with those maps - if they are relatively close to reality storms will initially put down snow cover to our North possibly aiding with CAD and may help us eventually as the pattern progresses and the baroclinic zone shifts South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:04 AM, psuhoffman said: We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. Expand Depends on where the biscuit is from, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:04 AM, psuhoffman said: We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. Expand I ain't eatin' no chicken without ma damn biscuits. Bring me bugs! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:17 AM, CAPE said: I ain't eatin' no chicken without ma damn biscuits. Bring me bugs! Expand Royal Farms really does have good fried chicken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:04 AM, psuhoffman said: We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. Expand There is something terribly wrong with our climate, it's almost like climate change is accelerating and we'll be past the point of no return soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:42 AM, losetoa6 said: I bet you can't eat a whole McDonald's biscuit samich without taking a drink Expand If we weren’t in a pandemic and I didn’t have a family I would seriously be on my way to NC right now to get a chicken cheddar biscuit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 11:59 PM, CAPE said: I would sign on the dotted line for 2 (even low end) warning level events through Feb at this point. We are in a motherfuccking rut man. Expand We've been in this rut for four years. I've had one real snow in 4 years. 2016 was a fluke that basically melted 48 hours later. We've been in a rut for a long time. This winter has been almost comical here east of DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:44 AM, dailylurker said: We've been in this rut for four years. I've had one real snow in 4 years. 2016 was a fluke that basically melted 48 hours later. We've been in a rut for a long time. This winter has been almost comical here east of DC. Expand I did the beach chases in Jan 2017 and 18, but both those years were also decent in my yard, esp 2018...right at avg. 2018-2019 was a disappointment, and it has been a disaster since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Weatherbug complete capitulation for next week's storm. 50F and rain. So much for those tea leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:04 AM, psuhoffman said: We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. Expand Biscuits are really, really good, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:27 AM, BristowWx said: Royal Farms really does have good fried chicken. Expand I heard that too! They are putting one in near my house in Opal (south of Warrenton) at the intersection of RTE 17and 29! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 1:20 AM, losetoa6 said: 18z Eps leaving the ssw energy even further behind - end of run hour 144 ( Control takes it to extreme and has the ssw hop a boat to Hawaii lol). Confluence continues to move further south each run( likey) Also of note ...the NAO moved further west which is nice . We really need a piece of that sw energy to eject east into the flow otherwise its ns dominated pretty dry stuff . I'm thinking the ideal scenario for the day 7 deal would be continuing of good confluence with just a piece of ssw energy ejecting east - not thr whole BB to avoid too much amping . But enough to throw decent moisture north into the confluence for a front end dump or even slide under us with some luck . Expand That could easily be a MR adjustment that ‘sneaks’ up on us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 12:42 AM, losetoa6 said: I bet you can't eat a whole McDonald's biscuit samich without taking a drink Try it ...I dare ya. Expand Son, Popeye's biscuits says wait, hold my beer. If you eat one without a drink, you are definitely committing suicide. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 1:44 AM, stormtracker said: Son, Popeye's biscuits says wait, hold my beer. If you eat one without a drink, you are definitely committing suicide. Expand I like their apple pie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Popeye's biscuits are in indeed incredible. Still waiting on something to pop on the models. Appreciate all the analysis here. It just feels like a roll of the dice. We have to win eventually. The roulette wheel doesn't always come up black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:02 AM, IUsedToHateCold said: Popeye's biscuits are in indeed incredible. Still waiting on something to pop on the models. Appreciate all the analysis here. It just feels like a roll of the dice. We have to win eventually. The roulette wheel doesn't always come up black. Expand It will happen when we have all but given up and we have a +NAO, +AO and it’s March. And everyone says it cannot snow in that pattern. Then it will melt the next day...seen it hundreds of times...thousands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 1:44 AM, stormtracker said: Son, Popeye's biscuits says wait, hold my beer. If you eat one without a drink, you are definitely committing suicide. Expand Legend has it that you can walk on water with shoes made out of Popeye's biscuits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:05 AM, BristowWx said: It will happen when we have all but given up and we have a +NAO, +AO and it’s March. And everyone says it cannot snow in that pattern. Then it will melt the next day...seen it hundreds of times...thousands Expand The indexes don’t mean much in March with short wavelengths ETA: they do if you want a sustained pattern like March 1960 or 2018 but a fluke storm can happen in almost any pattern the way waves can dig and cut off that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:07 AM, psuhoffman said: The indexes don’t mean much in March with short wavelengths Expand I like Popeyes apple pie too. It’s insanely good for a fast food joint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:02 AM, IUsedToHateCold said: Popeye's biscuits are in indeed incredible. Still waiting on something to pop on the models. Appreciate all the analysis here. It just feels like a roll of the dice. We have to win eventually. The roulette wheel doesn't always come up black. Expand That's kinda where I'm at with this...I liken the blocking regime other things discussed here--particularly what's to come in 10-14 days--to a slot machine that already has 1 out of 3 panels on a winning item (apologies if I'm not using the right terminology, lol), and you just need the other two to land right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 1:20 AM, losetoa6 said: 18z Eps leaving the ssw energy even further behind - end of run hour 144 ( Control takes it to extreme and has the ssw hop a boat to Hawaii lol). Confluence continues to move further south each run( likey) Also of note ...the NAO moved further west which is nice . We really need a piece of that sw energy to eject east into the flow otherwise its ns dominated pretty dry stuff . I'm thinking the ideal scenario for the day 7 deal would be continuing of good confluence with just a piece of ssw energy ejecting east - not the whole BB to avoid too much amping . But enough to throw decent moisture north into the confluence for a front end dump or even slide under us with some luck . Expand agreed and not a far fetched solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:34 AM, losetoa6 said: 1031 hp at 159. Definitely front end material Expand Icon a hit at 168 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2-4” on the icon...nice start to 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts