psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, Scraff said: I’m sorry, but do you have cliff notes available? I’m sorry this is the AP course. The remedial class is down the hall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: It still does trend towards more of a typical Nina look, but much less so than recent runs. Good sign maybe. Yes but in November it said that was coming by mid December. Then in mid December it was January. Then late January. Now by mid February? Ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I agree. You are becoming a solid poster btw. You have done it right- read a lot, and post sparingly. Make your posts count. Good job.Thanks broSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 @CAPE of course the -AO will end sometime. Maybe it does finally flip in February but by then we had a -AO from late November straight for 11-12 weeks. The failure of the winter wouldn’t be that the AO was positive the last couple weeks imo. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Slightly less ridging on 18z than 12z brings the precip south. Still not cold enough to make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m sorry this is the AP course. The remedial class is down the hall. Who’s teaching it? Ji? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: HH Gfs was close enough for 7/8 days out imo Looks like the low is forced just under us on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: More confluence which is a positive You saw snow in N MD. I knew you would on it. Congrats. Things really collapsed south compared to 12z. Nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Gfs was close enough for 7/8 days out imo Agree, but you can certainly see the screw potential the last few runs lol. If the blocking is as legit as advertised, its hard to believe one of these waves doesn't end up underneath us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs was close enough for 7/8 days out imo You can already see it caving to the blocking. By the time it gets here the precip will probably be 200 miles south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The block is quite evident on HH. Second rain event gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Montana has been cold. Psychological manipulation of population-based climate control is my guess. What, and I ask this respectfully, the fuck are you talking about? 1 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 33 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What, and I ask this respectfully, the fuck are you talking about? When he said the west coast, you thought he meant of THIS planet?? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The block is quite evident on HH. Second rain event gone It’s weird the Rex block is actually gone it’s just a -NAO ridge but it goes berserk with a vortex in the 50/50. It’s actually the flow under a block that creates the effect so that solution is even more suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What, and I ask this respectfully, the fuck are you talking about? There is only one that knows and that one is katodog 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: suppressive *+&#ing great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 hours ago, LP08 said: Decent Signal day 10 and beyond on the EPS. Wait... your saying day 10 and beyond looks good? Stop the presses! This is shocking news lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It seems like it's either suppressed or cuts. Nothing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s weird the Rex block is actually gone it’s just a -NAO ridge but it goes berserk with a vortex in the 50/50. It’s actually the flow under a block that creates the effect so that solution is even more suppressive One thing that has been fun..somewhat...is waiting to see what the model runs spit out...it’s not usually blue but it’s still interesting. And again it was always post 15 Jan where we needed to pay attention. That’s tomorrow. Strap it on and break it off is the best way to describe the upcoming pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: It seems like it's either suppressed or cuts. Nothing in between. Wait till you see the para gfs. Cutter. Suppressed suppressed suppressed cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Para did come really close to a monster storm around the 25 but bombs just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: I know that the accuracy tends to drop off significantly out there, and that's also why I prefaced my post with saying that outside of 3 weeks the weeklies really go out of their way to go towards typical ENSO patterns. Although with that being said, my takeaway from that week 4 h5 map was that it was surprisingly not doing what it did the past few runs at that range, and instead tried to get us back into a favorable progression despite it's biases. Not worth much this far out, but will certainly be super fascinating to follow in about a week or two. yeah basically what CAPE just said Thanks for sharing your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wait till you see the para gfs. Cutter. Suppressed suppressed suppressed cutter It’s only out to 48 for 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Gfs ens members show a bunch of juicy systems around day 7-8 with the boundary very close to us. Not hard to imagine that trending toward a good event for us. We are snake bit so we only see the negative possibility but the reality is that most precip events lately have trended more suppressed and if that happens this time we might end up in a good spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It’s only out to 48 for 18z Not on pivotal. Complete there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not on pivotal. Complete there Oh. Interesting. Thank you my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 @CAPE this ones for you...euro weekly control. I get fringed up here! Fwiw (not much) the euro weeklies had their best run wrt snow mean all winter. Clearly above climo for the period, especially along 95. It’s not shocking...the general H5 looks workable right through Feb. -NAO suppressed SE ridge pattern in feb could work. control Mean 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE this ones for you...euro weekly control. I get fringed up here! Fwiw (not much) the euro weeklies had their best run wrt snow mean all winter. Clearly above climo for the period, especially along 95. It’s not shocking...the general H5 looks workable right through Feb. -NAO suppressed SE ridge pattern in feb could work. control Mean Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have. Same. You get an -AO and -NAO for this long, especially now that we've gone several winters without a HECS, I expect a HECS and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have. Not me. After how this winter has been I’d sign off on 12” in a heartbeat, and I live in Philly. Just give it to me in one storm and I’m good to go. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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